Cesar Azorin-Molina

Response of vegetation to drought time-scales across global land biomes

We evaluated the response of the Earth land biomes to drought by correlating a drought index with three global indicators of vegetation activity and growth: vegetation indices from satellite imagery, tree-ring growth series, and Aboveground Net Primary Production (ANPP) records. Arid and humid biomes are both affected by drought, and we suggest that the persistence of the water deficit (i.e., the drought time-scale) could be playing a key role in determining the sensitivity of land biomes to drought. We found that arid biomes respond to drought at short time-scales; that is, there is a rapid vegetation reaction as soon as water deficits below normal conditions occur. This may be due to the fact that plant species of arid regions have mechanisms allowing them to rapidly adapt to changing water availability. Humid biomes also respond to drought at short time-scales, but in this case the physiological mechanisms likely differ from those operating in arid biomes, as plants usually have a poor adaptability to water shortage. On the contrary, semiarid and subhumid biomes respond to drought at long time-scales, probably because plants are able to withstand water deficits, but they lack the rapid response of arid biomes to drought. These results are consistent among three vegetation parameters analyzed and across different land biomes, showing that the response of vegetation to drought depends on characteristic drought time-scales for each biome. Understanding the dominant time-scales at which drought most influences vegetation might help assessing the resistance and resilience of vegetation and improving our knowledge of vegetation vulnerability to climate change.

Performance of Drought Indices for Ecological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Applications

AbstractIn this study, the authors provide a global assessment of the performance of different drought indices for monitoring drought impacts on several hydrological, agricultural, and ecological response variables. For this purpose, they compare the performance of several drought indices [the standardized precipitation index (SPI); four versions of the Palmer drought severity index (PDSI); and the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI)] to predict changes in streamflow, soil moisture, forest growth, and crop yield. The authors found a superior capability of the SPEI and the SPI drought indices, which are calculated on different time scales than the Palmer indices to capture the drought impacts on the aforementioned hydrological, agricultural, and ecological variables. They detected small differences in the comparative performance of the SPI and the SPEI indices, but the SPEI was the drought index that best captured the responses of the assessed variables to drought in summer, the seas...

Evidence of increasing drought severity caused by temperature rise in southern Europe

We use high quality climate data from ground meteorological stations in the Iberian Peninsula (IP) and robust drought indices to confirm that drought severity has increased in the past five decades, as a consequence of greater atmospheric evaporative demand resulting from temperature rise. Increased drought severity is independent of the model used to quantify the reference evapotranspiration. We have also focused on drought impacts to drought-sensitive systems, such as river discharge, by analyzing streamflow data for 287 rivers in the IP, and found that hydrological drought frequency and severity have also increased in the past five decades in natural, regulated and highly regulated basins. Recent positive trend in the atmospheric water demand has had a direct influence on the temporal evolution of streamflows, clearly identified during the warm season, in which higher evapotranspiration rates are recorded. This pattern of increase in evaporative demand and greater drought severity is probably applicable to other semiarid regions of the world, including other Mediterranean areas, the Sahel, southern Australia and South Africa, and can be expected to increasingly compromise water supplies and cause political, social and economic tensions among regions in the near future.

Accurate Computation of a Streamflow Drought Index

In this study, the authors investigated an approach to calculate the standardized streamflow index (SSI), which allows accurate spatial and temporal comparison of the hydrological conditions of a stream or set of streams. For this purpose, the capability of six three-parameter distributions (lognormal, Pearson Type III, log-logistic, general extreme value, generalized Pareto, and Weibull) and two different approaches to select the most suitable distribution the best monthly fit (BMF) and the minimum orthogonal distance (MD), were tested by using a monthly streamflow data set for the Ebro Basin (Spain). This large Mediterranean basin is characterized by high variability in the magnitude of streamflows and in seasonal regimes. The results show that the most commonly used probability distributions for flow frequency analysis provided good fits to the streamflow series. Thus, the visual inspection of the L-moment diagrams and the results of the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test did not enable the selection of a single ...

Impact of climate and land use change on water availability and reservoir management: Scenarios in the Upper Aragón River, Spanish Pyrenees

Streamflows in a Mediterranean mountain basin in the central Spanish Pyrenees were projected under various climate and land use change scenarios. Streamflow series projected for 2021-2050 were used to simulate the management of the Yesa reservoir, which is critical to the downstream supply of irrigation and domestic water. Streamflows were simulated using the Regional Hydro-Ecologic Simulation System (RHESSys). The results show that increased forest cover in the basin could decrease annual streamflow by 16%, mainly in early spring, summer and autumn. Regional climate models (RCMs) project a trend of warming and drying in the basin for the period 2021-2050, which will cause a 13.8% decrease in annual streamflow, mainly in late spring and summer. The combined effects of forest regeneration and climate change are expected to reduce annual streamflows by 29.6%, with marked decreases affecting all months with the exception of January and February, when the decline will be moderate. Under these streamflow reduction scenarios it is expected that it will be difficult for the Yesa reservoir to meet the current water demand, based on its current storage capacity (476 hm(3)). If the current project to enlarge the reservoir to a capacity of 1059 hm(3) is completed, the potential to apply multi-annual streamflow management, which will increase the feasibility of maintaining the current water supply. However, under future climate and land cover scenarios, reservoir storage will rarely exceed half of the expected capacity, and the river flows downstream of the reservoir is projected to be dramatically reduced.

Homogenization and Assessment of Observed Near-Surface Wind Speed Trends over Spain and Portugal, 1961–2011*

Near-surfacewindspeedtrendsrecordedat67land-basedstationsacrossSpainandPortugalfor1961–2011, alsofocusingonthe1979–2008subperiod,wereanalyzed.Windspeedseriesweresubjectedtoqualitycontrol, reconstruction, and homogenization using a novel procedure that incorporated the fifth-generation Pennsylvania State University–National Center for Atmospheric Research Mesoscale Model (MM5)-simulated seriesasreference.Theresultantseriesshowaslightdownwardtrendforboth1961–2011(20.016ms 21 decade 21 ) and 1979–2008 (20.010ms 21 decade 21 ). However, differences between seasons with declining values in winter and spring, and increasing trends in summer and autumn, were observed. Even though wind stilling affected 77.8% of the stations in winter and 66.7% in spring, only roughly 40% of the declining trends were statistically significant at the p , 0.10 level. On the contrary, increasing trends appeared in 51.9% of the stationsinsummerand57.4%inautumn,withalsoaround40%ofthepositivetrendsstatisticallysignificantat the p , 0.10 level. In this article, the authors also investigated (i) the possible impact of three atmospheric indices on the observed trends and (ii) the role played by the urbanization growth in the observed decline. An accurate homogenization and assessment of the long-term trends of wind speed is crucial for many fields such as wind energy (e.g., power generation) and agriculture–hydrology (e.g., evaporative demand).

The signal of aerosol-induced changes in sunshine duration records: A review of the evidence

Aerosols play a significant yet complex and central role in the Earths radiation budget, and knowledge of long-term changes in the atmospheric turbidity induced by aerosols is therefore fundamental for a better understanding of climate change. However, there is little available information on changes in aerosol concentration in the atmosphere, especially prior to the 1980s. The present paper reviews publications reporting the suitability of sunshine duration records with regard to detecting changes in atmospheric aerosols. Some of the studies reviewed propose methods for estimating aerosol-related magnitudes, such as turbidity, from sunshine deficit at approximately sunrise and sunset, when the impact of aerosols on the solar beam is more easily observed. In addition, there is abundant evidence that one cause of the decadal changes observed in sunshine duration records involves variations in atmospheric aerosol loading. Possible directions for future research are also suggested: in particular, detailed studies of the burn (not only its length but also its width) registered by means of Campbell-Stokes sunshine recorders may provide a way of creating time series of atmospheric aerosol loading metrics dating back to over 120 years from the present.

Temporal evolution of surface humidity in Spain: recent trends and possible physical mechanisms

We analyzed the evolution of surface relative humidity (RH) and specific humidity (q) in Spain, based on complete records available from the State Meteorological Agency of Spain. The surface RH records used span the period 1920–2011, but because of spatial and temporal constraints in the dataset we used a subset of the data, covering the period 1961–2011. The subset contained 50 monthly series of RH, which were created through a process of quality control, reconstruction and homogenization. The data shows that there was a large decrease in RH over mainland Spain from 1961 to 2011, which was greatest in spring and summer. In contrast, there was no overall change in the specific humidity in this period, except in spring, when an increase was observed. The decrease in RH affected the entire country, but the changes in specific humidity were less homogeneous. For specific humidity there was a general increase in the northern and eastern parts of Spain, whereas negative trends dominated in the central and southern areas, mainly during the summer months. The results suggest that an increase in the water holding capacity of the atmosphere as a consequence of warming during recent decades has not been accompanied by an increase in the surface water vapor content, probably because the supply of water vapor from the main terrestrial and oceanic areas has been constrained. We discuss the implications of these findings for evapotranspiration processes, precipitation and water management in Spain.

Sensitivity of reference evapotranspiration to changes in meteorological parameters in Spain (1961–2011)

This study analyzes changes in monthly reference evapotranspiration (ETo) by use of the Penman-Monteith equation and data from 46 meteorological stations in Spain from 1961 to 2011. Over the 51 year study period, there were trends for increasing average ETo during all months and annually at most of the individual meteorological stations. Sensitivity analysis of ETo to changes in meteorological variables was conducted by increasing and decreasing an individual climate variable holding the other variables constant. Sensitivity analysis indicated that relative humidity, wind speed, and maximum temperature had stronger effects on ETo than sunshine duration and minimum temperature. This suggests that aerodynamic component has more importance than radiative component to determine the atmospheric evaporative demand in Spain. The analysis showed a dominant latitudinal spatial gradient in the ETo relative changes across the 46 meteorological observatories, mainly controlled by the increasing available solar energy southward. In addition, the role of different meteorological variables on ETo is influenced by the average climatology at each observatory. ETo trends are mainly explained by the decrease in relative humidity and the increase in maximum temperature since the 1960s, particularly during the summer months. The physical mechanisms that explain ETo sensitivity to the different physical variables and current ETo trends are discussed in detail.

Trends of daily peak wind gusts in Spain and Portugal, 1961–2014

Given the inconsistencies of wind gust trends under the widespread decline in near-surface wind speed (stilling), our study aimed to assess trends of observed daily peak wind gusts (DPWG) across Spain and Portugal for 1961–2014 by analyzing trends of (i) the frequency (90th percentile) and (ii) the magnitude (wind speed maxima) of DPWG. Wind gust series were homogenized on a daily basis, using MM5-simulated series as reference, resulting in 80 suitable station-based data sets. The average DPWG 90th percentile frequency declined by −1.49 d decade−1 (p   0.10). A negligible trend was calculated for the annual magnitude of DPWG (−0.005 m s−1 decade−1; p > 0.10), with distinct seasonality: declining in winter (−0.168 m s−1 decade−1; p   0.10), especially for the frequency, suggesting the role of local-to-mesoscale drivers.