Chad D. Cotti

The Effect of Smoking Bans on Bars and Restaurants: An Analysis of Changes in Employment

Abstract Many communities and several states prohibit smoking in bars or restaurants. Using county-level data on employment from across the US, we find that communities where smoking is banned experience reductions in bar employment compared with counties that allow smoking. Smoking bans have a larger detrimental impact on bars in geographic areas with a high prevalence of smokers. The relative effect on restaurant employment is neutral or mildly positive. The positive effects are concentrated in areas with fewer smokers. We also find that bans have a positive effect on restaurant employment in warmer regions of the country, especially during the cooler winter months, and in the summer in colder regions. This suggests the prevalence of outdoor seating might influence the policys effect.

Minimum Wages and Alcohol-Related Traffic Fatalities among Teens

Using cross-state variation in minimum wages, we observe a positive relationship between the minimum wage and the number of alcohol-related accidents involving teen drivers. A similar effect is not observed when examining accidents among adults. The results are consistent with a positive income elasticity for alcoholic beverages and driving activities among young people, in particular for consumption out of discretionary income accorded by higher minimum wages. Evidence of a sizable impact of beer taxes on alcohol-related accidents among youths suggests that beer taxes are one avenue for policymakers to consider in counteracting this unintended consequence of minimum wages.

The Effect of Minimum Wages on Labour Market Outcomes: County-Level Estimates from the Restaurant-and-Bar Sector

We use US county‐level data on employment and earnings in the restaurant‐and‐bar sector to evaluate the impact of minimum‐wage changes in low‐wage labour markets. Our estimated models are consistent with a simple competitive model in which supply‐and‐demand factors affect both the equilibrium outcome and the probability of the minimum wage being binding. Our evidence does not suggest that minimum wages reduce employment once controls for trends in county‐level sectoral employment are incorporated. Rather, employment appears to exhibit an independent downward trend in states that have increased their minimum wages relative to states that have not, thereby predisposing estimates towards reporting negative outcomes.

Decomposing the Relationship between Macroeconomic Conditions and Fatal Car Crashes during the Great Recession: Alcohol- and Non-Alcohol-Related Accidents

Abstract This paper investigates to what extent and in what ways conditions related to the 2007-2008 recession reduced fatal crashes. It hypothesizes that the reduction in fatal automobile accidents operates through both the quantity of driving and changes in behaviors associated with driving. Using state-by-quarter fixed effects models, the study shows that unemployment rate increases significantly reduce fatal accidents. Decomposing the fatal accident rate into accidents per mile traveled and miles traveled per capita reveals that higher unemployment is significantly associated with fewer accidents per mile, and also reveals that fatal accidents associated with alcohol are more responsive to unemployment rate changes than are accidents overall. These results suggest that the recession’s “lost” fatal accidents occurred in areas hit harder by the recession and were in the form of fewer alcohol-related accidents per mile traveled rather than fewer miles traveled overall.

Fast food prices, obesity, and the minimum wage.

Recent proposals argue that a fast food tax may be an effective policy lever for reducing population weight. Although there is growing evidence for a negative association between fast food prices and weight among adolescents, less is known about adults. That any measured relationship to date is causal is unclear because there has been no attempt to separate variation in prices on the demand side from that on the supply side. We argue that the minimum wage is an exogenous source of variation in fast food prices, conditional on income and employment. In two-stage least-squares analyses, we find little evidence that fast food price changes affect adult BMI or obesity prevalence. Results are robust to including controls for area and time fixed effects, area time trends, demographic characteristics, substitute prices, numbers of establishments and employment in related industries, and other potentially related factors.

The impact of casinos on fatal alcohol-related traffic accidents in the United States

Casinos have been introduced throughout the U.S. to spur economic development and generate tax revenues. Yet, casinos may also be associated with a variety of social ills. One issue that has not been empirically tested in the literature is whether there is a link between casino expansion and alcohol-related fatal traffic accidents. We suspect a link may exist since casinos often serve alcohol to their patrons and, by their dispersed nature, could impact driving distances after drinking. Using the variation in the timing and location of casino openings over a 10-year period, we isolate the impact of casino introduction on alcohol-related fatal accidents. Results indicate that there is a strong link between the presence of a casino in a county and the number of alcohol-related fatal traffic accidents. However, this relationship is negatively related to the local-area (county) population. Results prove durable, as we subject them to robustness checks.

The Dow is Killing Me: Risky Health Behaviors and the Stock Market.

We investigate how risky health behaviors and self-reported health vary with the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and during stock market crashes. Because stock market indices are leading indicators of economic performance, this research contributes to our understanding of the macroeconomic determinants of health. Existing studies typically rely on the unemployment rate to proxy for economic performance, but this measure captures only one of many channels through which the economic environment may influence individual health decisions. We find that large, negative monthly DJIA returns, decreases in the level of the DJIA, and stock market crashes are widely associated with worsening self-reported mental health and more cigarette smoking, binge drinking, and fatal car accidents involving alcohol. These results are consistent with predictions from rational addiction models and have implications for research on the association between consumption and stock prices.

Alcohol-impaired motor vehicle crash risk and the location of alcohol purchase

Motor vehicle crashes involving alcohol impairment are among the leading causes of mortality and morbidity in the U.S. In this study, we examine how the probability of driving after a binge-drinking episode varies with the location of consumption and type of alcohol consumed. We also investigate the relationship between the location of alcohol purchase and the number of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes. Using multiple datasets that are representative of the U.S. between 2003 and 2009, we find that binge-drinkers are significantly more likely to drive after consuming alcohol at establishments that sell alcohol for on-premises consumption, e.g., from bars or restaurants, particularly after drinking beer. Further, per capita sales of alcohol for off-premises consumption are unrelated to the rate of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes. When disaggregating alcohol types, per capita sales of beer for off-premises consumption are negatively associated with the rate of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes. In contrast, total per capita sales of alcohol from all establishments (on- and off-premises) are positively related to the rate of alcohol-impaired fatal motor vehicle crashes and the magnitude of this relationship is strongest for beer sales. Thus, policies that shift consumption away from bars and restaurants could lead to a decline in the number of motor vehicle crashes.

Smokeless Tobacco Use Following Smoking Bans in Bars

We test for a unique form of compensatory behavior among smokers who wish to continue their nicotine consumption following the smoking bans placed on bars. We find a substantial increase in smokeless tobacco use among smokers, particularly those who drink and are of typical bar-going age. We also find that everyday smokers, who clearly have the strongest nicotine dependence, are more likely to increase smokeless-tobacco use than occasional smokers are.

The short-term impact of smoke-free workplace laws on fatal heart attacks

Using data from across the US, we find that as the number of communities adopting smoking bans in workplaces in a state increases or an entire state goes smoke-free, there are significant reductions in fatal Myocardial Infarctions (MI) among those aged 25–54. The result proves durable, as we subject it to an extensive battery of robustness checks. These results are smaller in magnitude, however, than published case studies analysing the experiences of individual communities passing bans.