Chad Lawley

The Contagion Effect of Neighboring Foreclosures

We examine the contagion effect of residential foreclosures and find strong evidence of a social interactions influence on default decisions where the interaction is based on neighbors’ behavior in a previous period. Using a unique spatially explicit parcel level data set documenting residential foreclosures in Maryland for the years 2006-2009 and a highly localized neighborhood definition, based on 13 nearest neighbors, we find that a neighbor in foreclosure increases the hazard of additional defaults by as much as 28%. This feedback effect goes beyond a temporary reduction in local house prices and implies a negative social multiplier effect of foreclosures.

Capitalized Costs of Habitat Conservation Easements

Perpetual conservation easements permanently remove the option to convert existing habitat to more intensive agricultural production. If existing habitat is at threat of conversion, removing the option to convert will reduce land values. In this article, we estimate the land value discount resulting from perpetual habitat conservation easements by using propensity score matching. We find that on the average eased parcel, land values fall by approximately

Biases in Nutrient Management Planning

86 per acre for every acre of eased habitat. On average, our results suggest that landowners have been adequately compensated and conservation agencies have successfully secured habitat at risk of conversion.

Refining the Evidence: British Columbia's Carbon Tax and Household Gasoline Consumption

Nutrient management planning is seen as a means of improving efficiency and reducing environmental problems, however, these gains may not be realized if plans overstate fertilizer requirements. Using data from a survey of Maryland farmers, we find that nutrient management planning was adopted more frequently by larger operations raising grain or cattle, but not by those on more environmentally sensitive land. Independent consultants and fertilizer dealers were more likely to recommend increases in fertilizer use, consistent with fears about bias. Farmers preparing their own plans were more likely to recommend decreases in fertilizer use, suggesting the presence of hidden information. (JEL Q53, Q18)

Ownership Restrictions and Farmland Values: Evidence from the 2003 Saskatchewan Farm Security Act Amendment

The impact of carbon prices on consumer behavior is a central element in current policy debates dealing with mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions. In this article, we examine the impact of British Columbia’s carbon tax on household consumption of gasoline for private automobile use. Our use of household-level data on gasoline expenditures allows us to control for several factors that influenced gasoline demand during our study period, including local public transit improvements and increased cross-border shopping in Washington State. Overall, our results suggest that a 5 cent per litre carbon tax reduced gasoline consumption by 8%. We find that households residing in Vancouver and other cities responded to the carbon tax, whereas households in small towns and rural areas did not respond. We perform several sensitivity analyses accounting for carbon leakage and the potential that the carbon tax was not fully passed through to the retail price of gasoline. Even our most conservative lower bound estimate suggests that a 5 cent per litre carbon tax reduced gasoline consumption by 5%.

Milked and Feathered: The Regressive Welfare Effects of Canada's Supply Management Regime

&NA; An underlying issue in discussions of farmland ownership restrictions is their impact on farmland values and on land acquisition costs for local farmers. In this article, I examine the farmland value consequences of relaxing a particularly stringent farmland ownership restriction in the Canadian province of Saskatchewan. The Saskatchewan Farm Security Act was introduced in 1974 and prohibited non‐Saskatchewan residents and corporations from owning Saskatchewan farmland. In 2003, the act was amended to allow Canadian residents and Canadian corporations to acquire farmland, bringing Saskatchewan in line with neighboring provinces and states that restrict foreign ownership but are open to domestic ownership. I estimate the impact of the 2003 amendment on Saskatchewan farmland values using 1995 through 2010 parcel‐level farmland transactions in Saskatchewan and its neighboring province of Manitoba. The impact of the 2003 amendment is assessed in a series of econometric models that use differential trends in farmland prices in the two provinces before and after the amendment. I find that the 2003 amendment led to a 1.9% to 3.1% per year increase in Saskatchewan farmland values.