Chandra Shah

Exact Interpretation of Dummy Variables in Semilogarithmic Equations

This paper considers the percentage impact of a dummy variable regressor on the level of the dependent variable in a semilogarithmic regression equation with normal disturbances. We derive an exact unbiased estimator, its variance, and an exact unbiased estimator of the variance. The main practical contribution lies in a convenient approximation for the unbiased estimator of the variance, which can be reported together with Kennedys approximate unbiased estimator of the percentage change. The two approximations are very simple, yet highly reliable. The results are applied to teacher earnings and further illustrated by examples from the literature.

An undergraduate student flow model: Australian higher education

The probability of completing and the time to complete an undergraduate course are likely to vary by the age and sex of the student, and the field of study undertaken. In this paper a Markov chain is used to model the movement of undergraduates through the higher education system in Australia. Given the age of the student when they commence a course, this model provides estimates of the probability of them completing the course. It also provides estimates for the mean time a student takes to complete the course, and mean time they spend in the higher education system.

Australian immigration: the triumph of economics over prejudice?

This paper provides an account of Australian immigration in the late twentieth century focusing on labour market and industrial relations issues. The paper chronicles the changing immigration policy framework, from one premised on exclusion to one designed primarily to serve the needs of the domestic labour market. One of the consequences of the policies, more by default than design, has been the transformation of society from a monocultural to a multicultural one. In spite of this migrants from other than mainly English speaking (MES) countries often have poor labour market outcomes, sometimes well after the time of arrival. This group appears to be more adversely affected by the downturn in economic cycles than other migrants or the Australian‐born population. At the industrial relations level trade unions have made a pragmatic, as well as a principled, shift to embrace immigrant workers from non‐MES countries. However the transition from a centralized system of conciliation and arbitration to a more deregulated labour market has compounded the disadvantage suffered by these workers.

Model selection in univariate time series forecasting using discriminant analysis

When a large number of time series are to be forecast on a regular basis, as in large scale inventory management or production control, the appropriate choice of a forecast model is important as it has the potential for large cost savings through improved accuracy. A possible solution to this problem is to select one best forecast model for all the series in the dataset. Alternatively one may develop a rule that will select the best model for each series. Fildes (1989) calls the former an aggregate selection rule and the latter an individual selection rule. In this paper we develop an individual selection rule using discriminant analysis and compare its performance to aggregate selection for the quarterly series of the M-Competition data. A number of forecast accuracy measures are used for the evaluation and confidence intervals for them are constructed using bootstrapping. The results indicate that the individual selection rule based on discriminant scores is more accurate, and sometimes significantly so, than any aggregate selection method.

Occupational replacement demand in Australia

Information on job openings by occupation is important for those looking for jobs, for those contemplating education and training options and for policy makers in education and training. Job openings in an occupation are a result of employment growth and the replacement of workers who leave the occupation. In this paper, three concepts of replacement demand are outlined and net replacement demand is estimated and projected for 81 occupational groups, covering the whole of employment in Australia. The results show the net replacement demand rate to vary substantially across occupations, with an average annual rate of 2 per cent.

Employment Shifts in the Technical and Further Education Workforce in Victoria

The vocational education and training (VET) sector in Victoria went through some significant changes between 1993 and 1998. These changes included amalgamation of Technical and Further Education (TAFE) institutes and the creation of a market for the provision of part of the state-funded VET, in which public and private providers competed. At the same time, the demand for training shifted from the declining manufacturing industry to the service and information technology industries. Parallel to these changes, the TAFE workforce also went through some significant restructuring. The participation of women increased, and for the first time in 1995 they were in the majority. Part-time employment grew sharply but full-time employment, mainly male, declined. Non-tenured, as either contract or sessional (casual), positions also increased quite sharply, but this trend varied across institutes.

Labour mobility and mutual recognition of skills and qualifications: European Union and Australia/New Zealand

Migration is an age-old new phenomenon. Before the First World War there were few border controls and although the subsequent introduction of passports restricted the movements of people, the improvement in mass transportation has now increased the opportunities for migration. After the Second World War, labour shortages in many economies around the globe encouraged large migrations, not only to the traditional New World destinations, such as the United States of America, Canada, Australia and New Zealand, but also to Europe (Chiswick & Hatton, 2002). Economic co-operation agreements between nations (e.g. Australia/New Zealand Closer Economic Relations Trade Agreement (CER); the European Union (EU); the North American Free Trade Agreement; and General Agreement on Trade in Services (GATS)) have facilitated the increase in migration over the last fifty years. Economic co-operation agreements deal with labour mobility in several ways, ranging from allowing permanent migration, including that of non-workers, to the temporary movement of service suppliers who are explicitly excluded from entry into the labour market and permanent migration. Temporary movements of persons across borders for the provision of services are allowed under Mode 4 of GATS. Geographic proximity, the level of economic development and the nature of labour shortages generally determine how liberal an approach is taken towards the movement of labour under these agreements. The agreements often include clauses streamlining regulations dealing with the mobility of goods and services across borders. Some agreements include mutual recognition of qualifications and occupational registration, mainly at the professional levels. Mutual recognition of qualifications, however, remains one of the most significant factors inhibiting the mobility of labour across borders. Not only has this been a problem in international structures, such as the EU, but until recently it was also the case within countries (e.g. Australia). This chapter looks at policies, programmes and measures that encourage the mutual recognition of qualifications and cross-border mobility. It describes developments in the EU and in Australia and New Zealand. The EU has evolved over the last half century from a union of six countries to twenty-five countries today. One of the founding principles establishing it was the free right of its citizens to live and