Chang K. Seung

A Review of Regional Economic Models for Fisheries Management in the U.S.

In 1986, Andrews and Rossi reviewed input-output (IO) studies of U.S. fisheries. Since then, many more fisheries studies have appeared using IO and other types of regional economic models, such as Fishery Economic Assessment Models, Social Accounting Matrices, and Computable General Equilibrium models. However, to our knowledge no updated summary of these studies or models has appeared since 1986. This paper attempts to fill this gap by briefly reviewing the types of regional economic models that have been applied to fisheries, reviewing studies using these models that have been conducted for U.S. fisheries, and identifying data and modeling issues associated with regional economic analysis of fisheries in the U.S. The authors conclude that although economic impact analysis of fisheries policy is required under federal law, development of more representative regional economic models for this purpose is not likely to be forthcoming without increased information obtained through some type of comprehensive data collection program.

Impacts of Recent Shocks to Alaska Fisheries: A Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) Model Analysis

Abstract We use a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to investigate impacts of three exogenous shocks to Alaska fisheries: i) a 31% reduction in the walleye pollock allowable catch; ii) a 125% increase in fuel price; and iii) both shocks simultaneously. The latter scenario reflects actual industry trends between 2004 and 2008. Impacts on endogenous output, employment, factor income, and household income are assessed. We also estimate changes in a measure of household welfare and compare model results against actual change in pollock and seafood prices. Few examples of CGE studies addressing fisheries issues appear in the literature. This study is unique in that it includes more disaggregated industry sectors and examines supply-side shocks that are difficult to address using fixed-price models. This study also overcomes a serious deficiency in models that use unadjusted seafood sector data in IMPLAN (IMpact analysis for PLANning) by developing the fish harvesting and processing sectors independently from available data, supplemented by interviews with key informants to ground-truth industry cost estimates. JEL Classification Codes: Q22, R13

On the Statistical Significance of Regional Economic Impacts from Recreational Fishing Harvest Limits in Southern Alaska

ABSTRACT Confidence intervals for regional economic impacts resulting from changes in saltwater sportfishing harvest limits are calculated using a stated preference model of sportfishing participation and a social accounting matrix (SAM) for southern Alaska. Confidence intervals are constructed to account for two types of input variation in impact estimates—sample variation in sportfishing-related expenditures and stochastic variation from parameters in the recreation participation model. For five of six policy scenarios examined, estimated impacts are not statistically different from zero. Tests for differences in estimated impacts between scenarios show that no statistical differences are found whenever stochastic variation is considered (statistical differences occur only when sample variation alone is accounted for). Due to the lack of statistical differences in this case, a comparison of economic impacts does not provide a clear-cut preferred alternative, and consequently other economic and non-economic criteria for evaluating policy scenarios should bear greater weight in policy decisions. JEL Codes: R11, Q51, Q22, Q58.

Untangling Economic Impacts for Alaska Fisheries: A Structural Path Analysis

ABSTRACT Fishery managers are often provided with economic impact multipliers calculated using input-output (IO) or social accounting matrix (SAM) models. However, these multipliers measure total economic impacts and do not provide the fishery managers with the details underlying how and along what paths these total economic impacts are generated and transmitted throughout a regional economy. This article uses a structural path analysis (SPA) to illustrate how an initial shock to a fishery sector generates impacts through various paths in a regional economy and to what extent these impacts are amplified while passing through the various paths. The SPA analysis is conducted within a SAM framework for the fisheries of the Southeast region of Alaska. JEL Codes: R15, Q22.

ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CHANGES IN AN ALASKA CRAB FISHERY FROM OCEAN ACIDIFICATION

A dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model is linked to a bioeconomic model for the Bristol Bay red king crab (BBRKC) fishery to analyze regional economic impacts of ocean acidification (OA)-induced changes in fishery yields. Yield projections based on two alternative forms (linear versus nonlinear) of OA effects on the survival of juvenile BBRKC are compared to a baseline without OA effects. Results demonstrate considerable uncertainty in yields, and show that economic impacts are sensitive to the form of OA effects, and to changes in the world price of BBRKC (Q22, Q54, Q57, R13).