Changwei Xie

Modeling permafrost properties in the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau

Water and heat dynamics in the active layer at a monitoring site in the Tanggula Mountains, located in the permafrost region of the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau (QXP), were studied using the physical-process-based COUPMODEL model, including the interaction between soil temperature and moisture under freeze-thaw cycles. Meteorological, ground temperature and moisture data from different depths within the active layer were used to calibrate and validate the model. The results indicate that the calibrated model satisfactorily simulates the soil temperatures from the top to the bottom of the soil layers as well as the moisture content of the active layer in permafrost regions. The simulated soil heat flux at depths of 0 to 20 cm was consistent with the monitoring data, and the simulations of the radiation balance components were reasonable. Energy consumed for phase change was estimated from the simulated ice content during the freeze/thaw processes from 2007 to 2008. Using this model, the active layer thickness and the energy consumed for phase change were predicted for future climate warming scenarios. The model predicts an increase of the active layer thickness from the current 330 cm to approximately 350–390 cm as a result of a 1–2°C warming. However, the effect active layer thickness of more precipitation is limited when the precipitation is increased by 20%–50%. The COUPMODEL provides a useful tool for predicting and understanding the fate of permafrost in the QXP under a warming climate.

Numerical Modeling of the Active Layer Thickness and Permafrost Thermal State Across Qinghai‐Tibetan Plateau

The dynamics of permafrost (including the permafrost thermal state and active layer thicknesses (ALT)) across the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) have not been well understood on a large scale. Here, we simulate the ALT and permafrost thermal state using the Geophysical Institute Permafrost Lab Version 2 (GIPL2) model across the QTP. Based on the single-point simulations, the model is upscaled to the entire QTP. The upscaled model is validated with five investigated regions (IRs), including Wenquan (WQIR), Gaize (GZIR), Aerjin (AEJIR), Xikunlun (XKLIR) and Qinghai-Tibetan highway (G109IR). The results show that the modified GIPL2 model improves the accuracy of the permafrost thermal state simulations. Due to our simulated results on the QTP, the average ALT is of 2.30 m (2.21 - 2.40 m). The ALT decreases with an increase in the altitude and decreases from the southeast to the northwest. The ALT is thin in the central QTP, but it is thick in the high-elevation mountain areas and some areas surrounding glaciers and lakes. The largest ALT is found in the border areas between permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The simulated results of the MAGT (the mean annual ground temperature) indicate that most of the permafrost is sub-stable, which is sensitive to climate warming. The simulated results would be of great significance on assessing the impacts of permafrost dynamics on local hydrology, ecology, and engineering construction.

Intercomparison of Solid Precipitation Derived from the Weighting Rain Gauge and Optical Instruments in the Interior Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau

Due to the light precipitation and strong wind in the cold season, it is hard to get credible solid precipitation on the Qinghai-Tibetan plateau (QTP). To address this issue, two kinds of optical instruments, the Thies Laser Precipitation Monitor (LPM) and OTT laser-optical Particle Size Velocity (Parsivel), were used on QTP. The measured precipitation was compared with the precipitation derived from Geonor T-200B precipitation gauge (Geonor). The results showed that Geonor was hard to catch light precipitation (precipitation amount was less than 1 mm during a single event) when the wind speeds were higher than 3.5 m/s. Even when the wind speeds were smaller than 3.5 m/s, about 44% of such light precipitation events were not recorded by Geonor. The optical instruments had much better performance in recording light precipitation. Three methods were used to correct Geonor measurements of daily solid precipitation and the corrected values were set as reference for assessing the performance of LPM and Parsivel; the results showed that LPM had good performance in measuring the solid precipitation but Parsivel overestimated the precipitation amount. Methods for correcting Geonor’s hourly solid precipitation and recalculating Parsivel’s solid precipitation amount were also proposed in this paper.

Spatiotemporal changes of freezing/thawing indices and their response to recent climate change on the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau from 1980 to 2013

The spatial and temporal changes of the ground surface freezing indices (GFIs), ground surface thawing indices (GTIs), air freezing indices (AFIs), and air thawing indices (ATIs) in permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau (QTP) were analyzed based on the daily ground surface and air temperatures from 69 meteorological stations using the Mann–Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimate. The spatial patterns of the freezing indices (FIs) and thawing indices (TIs) are nearly negatively correlated. On the annual scale, the GFI and GTI are greater than the AFI and ATI in both permafrost and seasonally frozen ground regions. The marked upward and downward trends have been observed for the time series of TI and FI, respectively, since 1998 on the QTP. Moreover, GFI and AFI decrease more significantly in permafrost regions than in seasonally frozen ground regions; the increasing rate of GTI and ATI in the seasonally frozen ground regions is greater than that in the permafrost regions. In permafrost regions, the downward trend of FI is greater than the upward trend of TI. However, the upward trend of TI shows a more drastic change than the FI in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The results indicate that the warming in the permafrost regions is more pronounced in winter than in the other seasons. The summer warming is more pronounced than the other seasons in the seasonally frozen ground regions. The decreasing rate of AFI and GFI increases as the altitude rises, while they decrease with increasing ATI. The average decreasing rate of GFI is greater than that of the AFI in different altitudinal zones. The greatest decrease of FI occurs in permafrost regions in the hinterland of the QTP, which indicates the dominant winter warming in this region. The downward trend of FI and upward trend of TI are responsible for the reported permafrost degradation on the QTP.

An analytical model for estimating soil temperature profiles on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China

Soil temperature is a key variable in the control of underground hydro-thermal processes. To estimate soil temperature more accurately, this study proposed a solution method of the heat conduction equation of soil temperature (improved heat conduction model) by applying boundary conditions that incorporate the annual and diurnal variations of soil surface temperature and the temporal variation of daily temperature amplitude, as well as the temperature difference between two soil layers in the Tanggula observation site of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau of China. We employed both the improved heat conduction model and the classical heat conduction model to fit soil temperature by using the 5 cm soil layer as the upper boundary for soil depth. The results indicated that the daily soil temperature amplitude can be better described by the sinusoidal function in the improved model, which then yielded more accurate soil temperature simulating effect at the depth of 5 cm. The simulated soil temperature values generated by the improved model and classical heat conduction model were then compared to the observed soil temperature values at different soil depths. Statistical analyses of the root mean square error (RMSE), the normalized standard error (NSEE) and the bias demonstrated that the improved model showed higher accuracy, and the average values of RMSE, bias and NSEE at the soil depth of 10–105 cm were 1.41°C, 1.15°C and 22.40%, respectively. These results indicated that the improved heat conduction model can better estimate soil temperature profiles compared to the traditional model.

Spatial distribution and changes of permafrost on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau revealed by statistical models during the period of 1980 to 2010

The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP), where is underlain by the highest and most extensive mid-altitude permafrost, is undergoing more dramatic climatic warming than its surrounding regions. Mapping the distribution of permafrost is of great importance to assess the impacts of permafrost changes on the regional climate system. In this study, we applied logistic regression model (LRM) and multi-criteria analysis (MCA) methods to map the decadal permafrost distribution on the QTP and to assess permafrost dynamics from the 1980s to 2000s. The occurrence of permafrost and its impacting factors (i.e., climatic and topographic elements) were constructed from in-situ field investigation-derived permafrost distribution patterns in 4 selected study regions. The validation results indicate that both LRM and MCA could efficiently map the permafrost distribution on the QTP. The areas of permafrost simulated by LRM and MCA are 1.23 × 106 km2 and 1.20 × 106 km2, respectively, between 2008 and 2012. The LRM and MCA modeling results revealed that permafrost area has significantly decreased at a rate of 0.066 × 106 km2 decade-1 over the past 30 years, and the decrease of permafrost area is accelerating. The sensitivity test results indicated that LRM did well in identifying the spatial distribution of permafrost and seasonally frozen ground, and MCA did well in reflecting permafrost dynamics. More parameters such as vegetation, soil property, and soil moisture are suggested to be integrated into the models to enhance the performance of both models.

Hydrochemical characteristics of ground ice in permafrost regions of the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau

Ground ice is a distinctive feature of permafrost terrain. The vertical distribution and factors controlling the hydrochemistry of ground ice are important for studying soil moisture and salt migration during the freeze-thaw process in soil. These factors are also important components of hydrological cycles in cold regions. The hydrochemical characteristics of ground ice on the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) are not well known. We examined the characteristics of ground ice hydrochemistry using data from 9 soil profiles in permafrost regions of the central QTP. The isotopes and anion concentrations of subsurface water on the QTP were higher than those in Arctic polygonal ground regions. The spatial distribution of anions was complex. Well-developed hydrochemical depth gradients occurred within the soil profile. Isotopes decreased and anions increased with depth, suggesting general vertical patterns of soil hydrochemistry across different permafrost regions. Cl- and SO42- concentrations in soil water increased with depth, while NO3- concentration did not change with depth. Freeze-out fractionation, self-purification, and desalination greatly impact soil hydrochemistry. The major factors controlling variation of soil water chemistry were soil moisture, air temperature, and active layer thickness. The results could provide a framework for understanding ground ice origins and the moisture and salt migration pathways in the context of permafrost changes. This information could be useful in developing process-based permafrost hydrologic models.

Assessment of reanalysis soil moisture products in the permafrost regions of the central of the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau

The long-term and large-scale soil moisture (SM) record is important for understanding land atmosphere interactions and their impacts on the weather, climate, and regional ecosystem. SM products are one of the parameters used in some earth system models, but these records require evaluation before use. The water resources on the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau (QTP) are important to the water security of billions of people in Asia. Therefore, it is necessary to know the SM conditions on the QTP. In this study, the evaluation metrics of multilayer (0 - 10, 10 - 40 and 40 - 100 cm) SM in different reanalysis datasets of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA), National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System and the Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2), and China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) are compared with in situ observations at five observation sites, which represent alpine meadow, alpine swamp meadow, alpine grassy meadow, alpine desert steppe, and alpine steppe environments during the thawing season from 1 Jan 2011 to 31 Dec 2013 on the QTP. The ERA SM remains constant at approximately 0.2 m3⋅m-3 at all observation sites during the entire thawing season. The CLDAS and CFSv2 SM products show similar patterns with those of the in situ SM observations during the thawing season. The CLDAS SM product performs better than the CFSv2 and ERA for all vegetation types except the alpine swamp meadow. The results indicate that the soil texture and land cover types play a more important role than the precipitation to increase the biases of the CLDAS SM product on the QTP.