Chanoch Jacobsen

Computer Simulations and Empirical Testing of Sociological Theory

To overcome the longstanding difficulties of testing macrosociological theories empirically, a new strategy based on computer simulations is proposed. The computer model provides a means for testing the empirical adequacy of a theory in its entirety, taking into account all relevant interactions between variables. The authors describe the approach and then apply it to a theory of patterned deviance. Fifteen sets of data were tested with the original model. Nine cases of violation of formal norms and five of informal norms were reproduced successfully. One data set could not be reproduced due to structural limitations of the model. The strategy is then used in simulated experiments to test alternative hypotheses for some of the data sets. The theorys range of applicability is discussed, and directions for further research with this strategy are suggested.

Computer Simulated Empirical Tests of Social Theory: Lessons from 15 Years’ Experience

Modelling sociological theories requires conceptual integration, realistically quantified variables, and clearly specified relationships. To test theories by running such models against empirical time series the model must correlate with data, and also show visual fit between the trends.

A System Dynamics Model of Planned Organizational Change

This paper suggests that an induction of change program leads to atemporary impairment of organizational performance. A System Dynamics Modelportrays the process of planned organizational change. A set of keyvariables that facilitate or impede change is identified, quantified, andintegrated into the model. Three data sets, reproduced by simulation,demonstrate that the model is internally consistent and empiricallyadequate. The paper discusses theoretical and practical implications of the‘initial dip’ phenomenon in processes of planned change.

Simulation and social theory

Currently, there are many social theories but none which have been formally tested because, in macrosociology, replication under genuinely comparable conditions has not been possible. A research strategy based on computer simulations is described that gives sociologists a practical quantitative technique for testing social theories and for comparing alternative hypotheses under identical research conditions. The strategy is demonstrated on a social theory of change in normative systems and illustrated with one of the empirical data sets that have been used to test the theory.

Interpreting Modal Frequencies To Measure Social Norms

The empirical study of social norms has been hampered b y a lack of standardized quantitative measures and criteria for the interpretation of research data. Two such criteria are suggested, both of them derived from the modal proportion of responses. The first, pk 1rep , signifies a modal proportion large enough to represent a population norm The second criterian, pk 1prom, is less stringent and indicates the presence of a prominent norm. Minority norms and plurality norms are also quantitatively defined. Two empirical examples are given to illustrate the utility of the suggested criteria.

Estimating functional relationships in a macrosociological model

S-shaped curves govern the behavior of many diffusion related social processes. It is shown here that these curves are good estimators for functional relationships in other macrosociological processes too. An example is provided using a mathematical model for change in norm systems. The model is developed directly from social theory and contains eighteen unknown monotonic functions. When these functions are chosen to be nonlinear and primarily S-shaped, the model reproduces a variety of empirical data sets well; when these functions are assumed to be linear, the simulated output is demonstrably worse.

Planned Organizational Change: Theory, Model, Data and Simulation

Organizations have to adapt to their environments in order to survive (Lawrence and Lorsch, 1967; Weick, 1969; Galbraith, 1967). Hence, recurrent structural changes are strategic responses of organizations to the growing turbulence of modern society (e.g., Tichy, 1983). While most organizations can alter their strategies, structures and procedures to some extent, many changes do not achieve their stated goals because of inertial forces blocking the way (Hannan and Freeman, 1984). Many of the factors affecting organizational change processes have already been identified (cf. Zaltman and Duncan, 1977), but we still lack a comprehensive view that integrates the various interplaying forces (Nadler, 1981; Carnell, 1986).

The Process of Crescive Legitimation: Theory, Simulation Model, and Three Empirical Tests

It is argued that the source of crescive legitimation lies in social conditions that permit noncon formities to normative expectations, so that unsanctioned violations increase and spread. This, together with the paucity of palpable reactions create the positive feedback that propels legitima tion. Crescive delegitimation, the reverse process, originates in open challenges to legitimate objects when they appear to conflict with established norms or beliefs. It is driven by a positive feedback in the opposite direction. This theoretical argument was transformed into a System Dynamics simulation model and tested with time series data on unmarried cohabitation (U.S.A., 1960-1994), reform marriages in Israel (1990-1996), and homosexuality (U.S.A., 1973-1996). The plotted output matched the data trends in each set, and the model reproduced over 85% of the variance of the data.

Normative and Utilitarian Particularism: The Impact of Social Structure on Service Commitments

Particularistic considerations among professionals have been ascribed to social structural exigencies. A comparison of conventionally employed professionals with practitioners belonging to a communal framework (kibbutz) reveals two distinct forms of particularism: a generally approved Normative Particularism that caters to the legitimate demands of the professionals immediate social environment, and a less accepted Utilitarian Particularism that reflects a concern for clients who can provide greater concrete rewards. Regression analysis shows both forms of particularism to be generated out of direct interactions between practitioner and client, irrespective of social structure. Such dyadic ties may encourage practitioners to meet legitimate normative expectations, but they also provide opportunities for satisfying egoistic motives. In either case, particularistic service commitments are inherent to professional practice, and demonstrate the continuing significance of this work practice in contemporary society.

Identifying the factors which influence the care of public places

Abstract This study examines a variety of social, economic, and spatial characteristics of communities in an attempt to account for the differences in the levels of care evident in their public places. Eleven different public locations were systematically observed and evaluated in each of a sample of 24 collective settlements (kibbutzim). Interviews with four community leaders in each kibbutz, as well as their current files, archives and maps, provided the data base for analysis. A number of variables, predominantly with social—structural content, were identified as being strongly and negatively related to the observed levels of care and cleanliness. These variables, namely, population size, building density, contractual social relationships, occupational diversification and temporary residency, are also highly correlated with one another. We have called them the ‘urbanism syndrome’, typically found in the older kibbutzim with a more impersonal membership structure. It is suggested that this ‘urbanism syndrome’, by making a person relatively anonymous in public places, leads to lower levels of care and cleanliness in such locations.