Chantal Claud

An update of observed stratospheric temperature trends

An updated analysis of observed stratospheric temperature variability and trends is presented on the basis of satellite, radiosonde, and lidar observations. Satellite data include measurements from the series of NOAA operational instruments, including the Microwave Sounding Unit covering 1979–2007 and the Stratospheric Sounding Unit (SSU) covering 1979–2005. Radiosonde results are compared for six different data sets, incorporating a variety of homogeneity adjustments to account for changes in instrumentation and observational practices. Temperature changes in the lower stratosphere show cooling of ∼0.5 K/decade over much of the globe for 1979–2007, with some differences in detail among the different radiosonde and satellite data sets. Substantially larger cooling trends are observed in the Antarctic lower stratosphere during spring and summer, in association with development of the Antarctic ozone hole. Trends in the lower stratosphere derived from radiosonde data are also analyzed for a longer record (back to 1958); trends for the presatellite era (1958–1978) have a large range among the different homogenized data sets, implying large trend uncertainties. Trends in the middle and upper stratosphere have been derived from updated SSU data, taking into account changes in the SSU weighting functions due to observed atmospheric CO2 increases. The results show mean cooling of 0.5–1.5 K/decade during 1979–2005, with the greatest cooling in the upper stratosphere near 40–50 km. Temperature anomalies throughout the stratosphere were relatively constant during the decade 1995–2005. Long records of lidar temperature measurements at a few locations show reasonable agreement with SSU trends, although sampling uncertainties are large in the localized lidar measurements. Updated estimates of the solar cycle influence on stratospheric temperatures show a statistically significant signal in the tropics (∼30°N–S), with an amplitude (solar maximum minus solar minimum) of ∼0.5 K (lower stratosphere) to ∼1.0 K (upper stratosphere).

Characteristics of the TOVS Pathfinder Path-B Dataset

Abstract From 1979 to present, sensors aboard the NOAA series of polar meteorological satellites have provided continuous measurements of the earths surface and atmosphere. One of these sensors, the TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS), observes earth-emitted radiation in 27 wavelength bands within the infrared and microwave portions of the spectrum, thereby creating a valuable resource for studying the climate of our planet. The NOAA–NASA Pathfinder program was conceived to make these data more readily accessible to the community in the form of processed geophysical variables. The Atmospheric Radiation Analysis group at the Laboratoire de Meteorologie Dynamique of the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique of France was selected to process TOVS data into climate products (Path-B). The Improved Initialization Inversion (3I) retrieval algorithm is used to compute these products from the satellite-observed radiances. The processing technique ensures internal coherence and minimizes both observ...

Comparison of co-located independent ground-based middle atmospheric wind and temperature measurements with numerical weather prediction models

High-resolution, ground-based and independent observations including co-located wind radiometer, lidar stations, and infrasound instruments are used to evaluate the accuracy of general circulation models and data constrained assimilation systems in the middle atmosphere at northern hemisphere mid-latitudes. Systematic comparisons between observations, the Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) operational analyses including the recent Integrated Forecast System (IFS) cycles 38r1 and 38r2, the NASAs Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) re-analyses and the free running climate Max Planck Institute Earth System Model (MPI-ESM-LR) are carried out in both temporal and spectral domains. We find that ECMWF and MERRA are broadly consistent with lidar and wind radiometer measurements up to ~40 km. For both temperature and horizontal wind components, deviations increase with altitude as the assimilated observations become sparser. Between 40 and 60 km altitude, the standard deviation of the mean difference exceeds 5 K for the temperature and 20 m/s for the zonal wind. The largest deviations are observed in winter when the variability from large-scale planetary waves dominates. Between lidar data and MPI-ESM-LR, there is an overall agreement in spectral amplitude down to 15-20 days. At shorter time-scales, the variability is lacking in the model by ~10 dB. Infrasound observations indicate a general good agreement with ECWMF wind and temperature products. As such, this study demonstrates the potential of the infrastructure of the Atmospheric Dynamics Research Infrastructure in Europe project (ARISE) that integrates various measurements and provides a quantitative understanding of stratosphere-troposphere dynamical coupling for numerical weather prediction applications.

Comparison between the Large-Scale Environments of Moderate and Intense Precipitating Systems in the Mediterranean Region

A characterization of the large-scale environment associated with precipitating systems in the Mediterranean region, based mainly on NOAA-16 Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations from 2001 to 2007, is presented. Channels 5, 7, and 8 of AMSU-A are used to identify upper-level features, while a simple and tractable method, based on combinations of channels 3-5 of AMSU-B and insensitive to land-sea contrast, was used to identify precipitation. Rain occurrence is widespread over the Mediterranean in wintertime while reduced or short lived in the eastern part of the basin in summer. The location of convective precipitation shifts from mostly over land from April to August, to mostly over the sea from September to December. A composite analysis depicting large-scale conditions, for cases of either rain alone or extensive areas of deep convection, is performed for selected locations where the occurrence of intense rainfall was found to be important. In both cases, an upper-level trough is seen to the west of the target area, but for extreme rainfall the trough is narrower and has larger amplitude in all seasons. In general, these troughs are also deeper for extreme rainfall. Based on the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts operational analyses, it was found that sea surface temperature anomalies composites for extreme rainfall are often about 1 K warmer, compared to nonconvective precipitation conditions, in the vicinity of the affected area, and the wind speed at 850 hPa is also stronger and usually coming from the sea.

Potential of Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit to identify precipitating systems and associated upper‐level features in the Mediterranean region: Case studies

The potential of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit (AMSU) observations to identify and characterize precipitating systems in the Mediterranean region is explored. Single channels or combination channels from AMSU-A are used to detect and locate upper level potential vorticity anomalies that are often associated with intensification of surface low systems and occurrence of extreme events, while AMSU-B data is used to detect precipitating areas. The motivation for the approach presented here is the direct use of satellite data as an alternative for reanalysis data sets for climatological studies of Mediterranean lows, without relying on retrieval algorithms. AMSU-A channel 8 was found to be more suitable to identify upper level southward intrusions of stratospheric air than the difference of channels 7 and 5, which detects only vertically deep intrusions. A combination of AMSU-B channels 3 and 5 is able to discriminate moderate to strongly precipitating areas with good agreement with Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) derived products and independent ground-based data. A more stringent condition based on differences of channels 3 to 5 was found to be useful to detect deep convective clouds. We demonstrate the applicability of AMSU to detect upper level features and precipitating systems for selected case studies of extreme precipitation in the Mediterranean region. These tools will allow us to form a climatology of moderate to strongly precipitating systems, and to investigate their relationship with upper level features that may be precursors of extreme events, and to establish a typology of the precipitating systems in the Mediterranean region.

Satellite-based climatology of Mediterranean cloud systems and their association with large-scale circulation

The variability of Mediterranean cloud systems is investigated using 8.5 years (from January 1987 to June 1995) of TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) observations acquired aboard the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) series of operational polar satellites. Cloud systems and troughs are automatically detected with the retrievals of the cloud top pressure (CTP) and the temperature of lower stratosphere (TLS). Observed cloud systems have a typical size of few hundred kilometres with a larger occurrence between March and October. A threefold cloud system typology reveals the presence of an upper-level anomaly for about 30% of the cloud systems in winter, 26% in spring and 7% in autumn (but 23% in October). During summer, in contrast, the forcing is very likely local, and according to the composite analysis, weakly related to upper-level anomaly. During the cold seasons (15 October to 15 April), more cloud systems are found during negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) phase when the north Atlantic storm track takes its southernmost position. Consistently, more systems are observed during the Greenland Anticyclone and the Atlantic Ridge regimes, compared to the Zonal and Blocking regimes. Finally, severe precipitation events over the Alpine region are associated with a warm TLS anomaly upstream the cloud system, showing once more the impact of the upper levels on the weather over this area.

Layering in stratospheric profiles of long‐lived trace species: Balloon‐borne observations and modeling

A series of balloon flights conducted in March 1993 from Aire-sur-Adour, in southern France, aimed at making in situ measurements of a variety of trace gases in the polar vortex during a dynamically active period. Meteorological analyses indicate that the balloons were launched when the vortex edge was passing aloft. These mid latitude balloon flights revealed coincident layering in long-lived tropospheric source gases such as nitrous oxide, methane and halocarbons as well as in ozone and water vapor. At low altitudes, well-resolved laminations appeared clearly in all these gases. A layer of mid latitude air, enriched in trace gases, was detected at the highest sampled level, near 15 mbar, inducing a pronounced reversal in the profiles of tropospheric source gases. Using global meteorological analyses, trace constituent data derived from the UARS observations and high-resolution advection models, fine-scale distributions of ozone, nitrous oxide, methane, and halocarbons have been constructed. The calculations show qualitatively how such profile reversal arises near 15 mbar, when a filament of air enriched in trace gases is drawn into the outer portion of the vortex. Very high resolution calculations furthermore provide reasonable quantitative agreement between predicted tracer mixing ratios and in situ balloon-borne measurements.

Coupled chemistry climate model simulations of stratospheric temperatures and their trends for the recent past

Temperature results from multi-decadal simulations of coupled chemistry climate models for the recent past are analyzed using multi-linear regression including a trend, solar cycle, lower stratospheric tropical wind, and volcanic aerosol terms. The climatology of the models for recent years is in good agreement with observations for the troposphere but the model results diverge from each other and from observations in the stratosphere. Overall, the models agree better with observations than in previous assessments, primarily because of corrections in the observed temperatures. The annually averaged global and polar temperature trends simulated by the models are generally in agreement with revised satellite observations and radiosonde data over much of their altitude range. In the global average, the model trends underpredict the radiosonde data slightly at the top of the observed range. Over the Antarctic some models underpredict the temperature trend in the lower stratosphere, while others overpredict the trends.

Satellite observations of a polar low over the Norwegian Sea by Special Sensor Microwave Imager, Geosat, and TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder

Many polar lows are generated at the boundary between sea ice and the ocean, in regions of large temperature gradients, where in situ observations are rare or nonexistent. Since satellite observations are frequent in high-latitude regions, they can be used to detect polar lows and track their propagation and evolution. The Special Sensor Microwave/I mager (SSM/I) providing estimates of surface wind speed, integrated cloud liquid water content, water vapor content, and precipitation size ice-scattering signal over the ocean; the Geosat radar altimeter measuring surface wind speed and significant wave height; and the TIROS-N Operational Vertical Sounder (TOVS) allowing the determination of temperature and humidity profiles in the atmosphere have been used in synergy for a specific case which occurred in the Norwegian Sea on January, 23–24 1988. All three instruments show sharp atmospheric gradients associated with the propagation of this low across the ocean, which permit the detection of the polar low at a very early stage and tracking it during its development, propagation, and decay. The wind speed gradients are measured with good qualitative agreement between the altimeter and SSM/I. TOVS retrieved fields prior to the formation of the low confirm the presence of an upper level trough, while during the mature phase baroclinicty can be observed in the 1000–500 hPa geopotential thicknesses. Comparisons between satellite-retrieved products and analyses of the operational Norwegian limited area model (150- and 50- km mesh) highlight the importance of satellites for the monitoring of such mesoscale phenomena.

Polar Lows over the Nordic Seas: Improved Representation in ERA-Interim Compared to ERA-40 and the Impact on Downscaled Simulations

AbstractPolar lows are intense high-latitude mesocyclones that form during the cold season over open sea. Their relatively small-scale and short life span lead to a rather poor representation in model outputs and meteorological reanalyses. In this paper, the ability of the Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) to represent polar lows over the Norwegian and Barents Sea is assessed, and a comparison with the 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) is provided for three cold seasons (1999–2000 until 2001–02). A better representation in ERA-Interim is found, with 13 systems captured out of the 29 observed, against 6 in the case of ERA-40. Reasons for the lack of representation are identified. Unexpectedly, the representation of different polar low sizes does not appear to be linked to the resolution. Rather, it is the representation of synoptic conditions that appears to be essential. In a second part, a downscaling is conducted using the mesoscale model Meso-NH...