Charles F. Gilks

Universal voluntary HIV testing with immediate antiretroviral therapy as a strategy for elimination of HIV transmission: a mathematical model

BACKGROUND Roughly 3 million people worldwide were receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) at the end of 2007, but an estimated 6.7 million were still in need of treatment and a further 2.7 million became infected with HIV in 2007. Prevention efforts might reduce HIV incidence but are unlikely to eliminate this disease. We investigated a theoretical strategy of universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate treatment with ART, and examined the conditions under which the HIV epidemic could be driven towards elimination. METHODS We used mathematical models to explore the effect on the case reproduction number (stochastic model) and long-term dynamics of the HIV epidemic (deterministic transmission model) of testing all people in our test-case community (aged 15 years and older) for HIV every year and starting people on ART immediately after they are diagnosed HIV positive. We used data from South Africa as the test case for a generalised epidemic, and assumed that all HIV transmission was heterosexual. FINDINGS The studied strategy could greatly accelerate the transition from the present endemic phase, in which most adults living with HIV are not receiving ART, to an elimination phase, in which most are on ART, within 5 years. It could reduce HIV incidence and mortality to less than one case per 1000 people per year by 2016, or within 10 years of full implementation of the strategy, and reduce the prevalence of HIV to less than 1% within 50 years. We estimate that in 2032, the yearly cost of the present strategy and the theoretical strategy would both be US

Tuberculosis-associated immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome: case definitions for use in resource-limited settings

1.7 billion; however, after this time, the cost of the present strategy would continue to increase whereas that of the theoretical strategy would decrease. INTERPRETATION Universal voluntary HIV testing and immediate ART, combined with present prevention approaches, could have a major effect on severe generalised HIV/AIDS epidemics. This approach merits further mathematical modelling, research, and broad consultation.

23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine in HIV-1-infected Ugandan adults: double-blind, randomised and placebo controlled trial.

The immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) has emerged as an important early complication of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings, especially in patients with tuberculosis. However, there are no consensus case definitions for IRIS or tuberculosis-associated IRIS. Moreover, previously proposed case definitions are not readily applicable in settings where laboratory resources are limited. As a result, existing studies on tuberculosis-associated IRIS have used a variety of non-standardised general case definitions. To rectify this problem, around 100 researchers, including microbiologists, immunologists, clinicians, epidemiologists, clinical trialists, and public-health specialists from 16 countries met in Kampala, Uganda, in November, 2006. At this meeting, consensus case definitions for paradoxical tuberculosis-associated IRIS, ART-associated tuberculosis, and unmasking tuberculosis-associated IRIS were derived, which can be used in high-income and resource-limited settings. It is envisaged that these definitions could be used by clinicians and researchers in a variety of settings to promote standardisation and comparability of data.

Cryptococcal infection in a cohort of HIV-1-infected Ugandan adults

BACKGROUND Infection with Streptococcus pneumoniae is a frequent and serious problem for HIV-immunosuppressed adults. Vaccination is recommended in the USA and Europe, but there are no prospective data that show vaccine efficacy. METHODS 1392 (937 female) HIV-1-infected adults in Entebbe, Uganda, were enrolled. 697 received 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine and 695 received placebo. The primary endpoint was first event invasive pneumococcal disease. Secondary endpoints included vaccine serogroup-specific invasive disease, all (probable and definite) pneumococcal events, all-cause pneumonia, and death. FINDINGS First invasive events occurred in 25 individuals (24 bacteraemias, one pyomyositis), 15 in the vaccine arm and ten in the placebo arm (hazard ratio [HR] 1.47; 95% CI 0.7-3.3). 22 isolates (88%) were of vaccine-specific serogroups with 15 events in the vaccine arm compared with seven in the placebo arm (HR 2.10; 0.9-5.2). All pneumococcal events had a similar distribution (20 vs 14; HR 1.41; 0.7-2.8) though all-cause pneumonia was significantly more frequent in the vaccine arm (40 vs 21; HR 1.89; 1.1-3.2). Mortality was unaffected by vaccination. INTERPRETATION 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccination is ineffective in HIV-1-infected Ugandan adults and probably has little, or no, public health value elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. Increased rates of pneumococcal disease in vaccine recipients may necessitate a reappraisal of this intervention in other settings.

Life-threatening bacteraemia in HIV-1 seropositive adults admitted to hospital in Nairobi, Kenya

Objective Despite the recognition of Cryptococcus neoformans as a major cause of meningitis in HIV-infected adults in sub-Saharan Africa, little is known about the relative importance of this potentially preventable infection as a cause of mortality and suffering in HIV-infected adults in this region. Design A cohort study of 1372 HIV-1-infected adults, enrolled and followed up between October 1995 and January 1999 at two community clinics in Entebbe, Uganda. Methods Systematic and standardized assessment of illness episodes to describe cryptococcal disease and death rates. Results Cryptococcal disease was diagnosed in 77 individuals (rate 40.4/1000 person-years) and was associated with 17% of all deaths (77 out of 444) in the cohort. Risk of infection was strongly associated with CD4 T cell counts < 200 × 106 cells/l(75 patients) and World Health Organization (WHO) clinical stage 3 and 4 (68 patients). Meningism was present infrequently on presentation (18%). Clinical findings had limited discriminatory diagnostic value. Serum cryptococcal antigen testing was the most sensitive and robust diagnostic test. Cryptococcal antigenaemia preceded symptoms by a median of 22 days (> 100 days in 11% of patients). Survival following diagnosis was poor (median survival 26 days; range 0–138). Conclusions Cryptococcal infection is an important contributor to mortality and suffering in HIV-infected Ugandans. Improvements in access to effective therapy of established disease are necessary. In addition, prevention strategies, in particular chemoprophylaxis, should be evaluated while awaiting the outcome of initiatives to make antiretroviral therapy more widely available.

A Trial of a 7-Valent Pneumococcal Conjugate Vaccine in HIV-Infected Adults.

During 6 months, 506 consecutive adult emergency admissions to hospital in Nairobi were enrolled in a study of bacteraemia and HIV infection. 19% were HIV-1 antibody positive. Significantly more HIV-seropositive than seronegative patients had bacteraemia (26% vs 6%). The predominant organisms isolated from the seropositive patients were Salmonella typhimurium and Streptococcus pneumoniae. Mortality was higher in the seropositive than in the seronegative bacteraemic patients. The findings suggest that non-opportunistic bacteria are important causes of morbidity and mortality in HIV-infected individuals in Africa.

Effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 envelope subtypes A and D on disease progression in a large cohort of HIV-1-positive persons in Uganda.

BACKGROUND Streptococcus pneumoniae is a leading and serious coinfection in adults with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, particularly in Africa. Prevention of this disease by vaccination with the current 23-valent polysaccharide vaccine is suboptimal. Protein conjugate vaccines offer a further option for protection, but data on their clinical efficacy in adults are needed. METHODS In this double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled clinical efficacy trial, we studied the efficacy of a 7-valent conjugate pneumococcal vaccine in predominantly HIV-infected Malawian adolescents and adults who had recovered from documented invasive pneumococcal disease. Two doses of vaccine were given 4 weeks apart. The primary end point was a further episode of pneumococcal infection caused by vaccine serotypes or serotype 6A. RESULTS From February 2003 through October 2007, we followed 496 patients (of whom 44% were male and 88% were HIV-seropositive) for 798 person-years of observation. There were 67 episodes of pneumococcal disease in 52 patients, all in the HIV-infected subgroup. In 24 patients, there were 19 episodes that were caused by vaccine serotypes and 5 episodes that were caused by the 6A serotype. Of these episodes, 5 occurred in the vaccine group and 19 in the placebo group, for a vaccine efficacy of 74% (95% confidence interval [CI], 30 to 90). There were 73 deaths from any cause in the vaccine group and 63 in the placebo group (hazard ratio in the vaccine group, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.84 to 1.66). The number of serious adverse events within 14 days after vaccination was significantly lower in the vaccine group than in the placebo group (3 vs. 17, P=0.002), and the number of minor adverse events was significantly higher in the vaccine group (41 vs. 13, P=0.003). CONCLUSIONS The 7-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine protected HIV-infected adults from recurrent pneumococcal infection caused by vaccine serotypes or serotype 6A. (Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN54494731.)

Increasing rates of malarial fever with deteriorating immune status in HIV-1-infected Ugandan adults.

The effect of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type 1 envelope subtypes A and D on disease progression was investigated in 1045 adults in Uganda. At enrollment and every 6 months, a clinical history, examination, and laboratory investigations that included CD4 cell counts were done. HIV-1 envelope subtype was assessed mainly by peptide serology supplemented by heteroduplex mobility assay and DNA sequencing. A multivariate analysis of survival was performed to assess the prognostic value of HIV-1 subtype on death. A marginal general linear model also determined the effect of subtype on CD4 cell count during follow-up. Subtype D was associated with faster progression to death (relative risk, 1.29; 95% confidence interval, 1.07-1.56; P=.009) and with a lower CD4 cell count during follow-up (P=.001), compared with subtype A, after adjusting for CD4 cell count at enrollment. In Africa, envelope subtype D is associated with faster disease progression, compared with subtype A.

Virological monitoring and resistance to first-line highly active antiretroviral therapy in adults infected with HIV-1 treated under WHO guidelines: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BackgroundFalciparum malaria and HIV-1 infection are two of the most important health problems facing sub-Saharan Africa. No convincing evidence of an association between symptomatic malaria and HIV-1 infection has been found. ObjectiveTo investigate the effect of HIV-associated immunosuppression on malarial fever rates. DesignAn observational cohort study in HIV-specific, primary healthcare clinics in Entebbe, Uganda, on 1371 HIV-1-infected adults participating in a randomized trial of 23-valent pneumococcal vaccine. MethodsCohort members underwent routine 6 monthly surveillance and had open clinic access when sick. Episodes of fever were assessed according to standardized protocols. Rates of malaria are described according to HIV immune status determined by CD4 T cell counts. ResultsIncidence rates of Plasmodium falciparum malarial fever showed a marked inverse relationship with CD4 T cell count; 140, 93 and 57 cases per 1000 pyo for CD4 T cell groups < 200, 200–499 and > 500 respectively, P < 0.001. Malarial fever definitions incorporating parasite density criteria (derived from asymptomatic surveillance) to correct for chance findings of fever and P. falciparum parasitaemia, did not affect the association of incidence rates with immunosuppression. ConclusionThese data support an interaction between symptomatic P. falciparum and HIV. Emphasis on mosquito avoidance measures should be an important component of education and counselling of HIV/AIDS patients in malaria-endemic areas, and suggests an additional HIV-related public health problem in Africa.

Non-typhoidal salmonella bacteraemia among HIV-infected Malawian adults: high mortality and frequent recrudescence

Antiretroviral-therapy rollout in resource-poor countries is often associated with limited, if any, HIV-RNA monitoring. The effect of variable monitoring on the emergence of resistance after therapy with commonly used drug combinations was assessed by systematic review of studies reporting resistance in patients infected with HIV with a CD4 count of fewer than 200 cells per muL treated with two nucleoside analogues (including a thymidine analogue) and a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. 8376 patients from eight cohorts and two prospective studies were analysed. Resistance at virological failure to non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors at 48 weeks was 88.3% (95% CI 82.2-92.9) in infrequently monitored patients, compared with 61.0% (48.9-72.2) in frequently monitored patients (p<0.001). Lamivudine resistance was 80.5% (72.9-86.8) and 40.3% (29.1-52.2) in infrequently and frequently monitored patients, respectively (p<0.001); the prevalence of at least one thymidine analogue mutation was 27.8% (21.2-35.2) and 12.1% (5.9-21.4), respectively (p<0.001). Genotypic resistance at 48 weeks to lamivudine, nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (thymidine analogue mutations), and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors appears substantially higher in less frequently monitored patients. This Review highlights the need for cheap point-of-care viral-load tests to identify early viral failures and limit the emergence of resistance.