Charles G. Helmick

Estimates of the prevalence of arthritis and other rheumatic conditions in the United States. Part II.

OBJECTIVE To provide a single source for the best available estimates of the US prevalence of and number of individuals affected by osteoarthritis, polymyalgia rheumatica and giant cell arteritis, gout, fibromyalgia, and carpal tunnel syndrome, as well as the symptoms of neck and back pain. A companion article (part I) addresses additional conditions. METHODS The National Arthritis Data Workgroup reviewed published analyses from available national surveys, such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the National Health Interview Survey. Because data based on national population samples are unavailable for most specific rheumatic conditions, we derived estimates from published studies of smaller, defined populations. For specific conditions, the best available prevalence estimates were applied to the corresponding 2005 US population estimates from the Census Bureau, to estimate the number affected with each condition. RESULTS We estimated that among US adults, nearly 27 million have clinical osteoarthritis (up from the estimate of 21 million for 1995), 711,000 have polymyalgia rheumatica, 228,000 have giant cell arteritis, up to 3.0 million have had self-reported gout in the past year (up from the estimate of 2.1 million for 1995), 5.0 million have fibromyalgia, 4-10 million have carpal tunnel syndrome, 59 million have had low back pain in the past 3 months, and 30.1 million have had neck pain in the past 3 months. CONCLUSION Estimates for many specific rheumatic conditions rely on a few, small studies of uncertain generalizability to the US population. This report provides the best available prevalence estimates for the US, but for most specific conditions more studies generalizable to the US or addressing understudied populations are needed.

Estimates of the prevalence of arthritis and selected musculoskeletal disorders in the United States

OBJECTIVE To provide a single source for the best available estimates of the national prevalence of arthritis in general and of selected musculoskeletal disorders (osteoarthritis, rheumatoid arthritis, juvenile rheumatoid arthritis, the spondylarthropathies, systemic lupus erythematosus, scleroderma, polymyalgia rheumatica/giant cell arteritis, gout, fibromyalgia, and low back pain). METHODS The National Arthritis Data Workgroup reviewed data from available surveys, such as the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey series. For overall national estimates, we used surveys based on representative samples. Because data based on national population samples are unavailable for most specific musculoskeletal conditions, we derived data from various smaller survey samples from defined populations. Prevalence estimates from these surveys were linked to 1990 US Bureau of the Census population data to calculate national estimates. We also estimated the expected frequency of arthritis in the year 2020. RESULTS Current national estimates are provided, with important caveats regarding their interpretation, for self-reported arthritis and selected conditions. An estimated 15% (40 million) of Americans had some form of arthritis in 1995. By the year 2020, an estimated 18.2% (59.4 million) will be affected. CONCLUSION Given the limitations of the data on which they are based, this report provides the best available prevalence estimates for arthritis and other rheumatic conditions overall, and for selected musculoskeletal disorders, in the US population.

Ulcerative colitis and colorectal cancer. A population-based study.

BACKGROUND The risk of colorectal cancer is increased among patients with ulcerative colitis. The magnitude of this increase in risk and the effects of the length of follow-up, the extent of disease at diagnosis, and age at diagnosis vary substantially in different studies. METHODS To provide accurate estimates of the risk of colorectal cancer among patients with ulcerative colitis, we studied a population-based cohort of 3117 patients given a diagnosis of ulcerative colitis from 1922 through 1983 who were followed up through 1984. RESULTS Ninety-two cases of colorectal cancer occurred in 91 patients. As compared with the expected incidence, the incidence of colorectal cancer in the cohort was increased (standardized incidence ratio [ratio of observed to expected cases] = 5.7; 95 percent confidence interval, 4.6 to 7.0). Less extensive disease at diagnosis was associated with a lower risk; for patients with ulcerative proctitis, the standardized incidence ratio was 1.7 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.8 to 3.2); for those with left-sided colitis, 2.8 (95 percent confidence interval, 1.6 to 4.4); and for those with pancolitis (extensive colitis, or inflammation of the entire colon), 14.8 (95 percent confidence interval, 11.4 to 18.9). Age at diagnosis and the extent of disease at diagnosis were strong and independent risk factors for colorectal cancer. For each increase in age group at diagnosis (less than 15 years, 15 to 29 years, 30 to 39 years, 40 to 49 years, 50 to 59 years, and greater than or equal to 60 years), the relative risk of colorectal cancer, adjusted for the extent of disease at diagnosis, decreased by about half (adjusted standardized incidence ratio = 0.51; 95 percent confidence interval, 0.46 to 0.56). The absolute risk of colorectal cancer 35 years after diagnosis was 30 percent for patients with pancolitis at diagnosis and 40 percent for those given this diagnosis at less than 15 years of age. CONCLUSIONS Close surveillance and perhaps even prophylactic proctocolectomy should be recommended for patients given a diagnosis of pancolitis, especially those who are less than 15 years of age at diagnosis.

Increased risk of large-bowel cancer in crohn's disease with colonic involvement

A cohort of 1655 patients with Crohns disease diagnosed during 1983 in the Uppsala health care region, Sweden, was followed up with respect to the occurrence of colorectal cancer to the end of 1984. 12 colorectal cancers were diagnosed, yielding an increased overall risk of 2.5. The relative risk was similar for males and females. Duration of follow-up did not affect risk. Relative risk for disease of the terminal ileum only was 1.0; for terminal ileum and parts of colon 3.2; and for colon alone 5.6. Patients in whom Crohns disease was diagnosed before age 30 with any colonic involvement at diagnosis had a higher relative risk (20.9) than those diagnosed at older ages (2.2).

Lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis

OBJECTIVE To estimate the lifetime risk of symptomatic knee osteoarthritis (OA), overall and stratified by sex, race, education, history of knee injury, and body mass index (BMI). METHODS The lifetime risk of symptomatic OA in at least 1 knee was estimated from logistic regression models with generalized estimating equations among 3,068 participants of the Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a longitudinal study of black and white women and men age >or=45 years living in rural North Carolina. Radiographic, sociodemographic, and symptomatic knee data measured at baseline (1990-1997) and first followup (1999-2003) were analyzed. RESULTS The lifetime risk of symptomatic knee OA was 44.7% (95% confidence interval [95% CI] 40.0-49.3%). Cohort members with history of a knee injury had a lifetime risk of 56.8% (95% CI 48.4-65.2%). Lifetime risk rose with increasing BMI, with a risk of 2 in 3 among those who were obese. CONCLUSION Nearly half of the adults in Johnston County will develop symptomatic knee OA by age 85 years, with lifetime risk highest among obese persons. These current high risks in Johnston County may suggest similar risks in the general US population, especially given the increase in 2 major risk factors for knee OA, aging, and obesity. This underscores the immediate need for greater use of clinical and public health interventions, especially those that address weight loss and self-management, to reduce the impact of having knee OA.

Prevalence of Hip Symptoms and Radiographic and Symptomatic Hip Osteoarthritis in African Americans and Caucasians: The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project

Objective. To report contemporary estimates of the prevalence of hip-related osteoarthritis (OA) outcomes in African Americans and Caucasians aged ≥ 45 years. Methods. Weighted prevalence estimates and their corresponding 95% confidence intervals for hip symptoms, radiographic hip OA, symptomatic hip OA, and severe radiographic hip OA were calculated using SUDAAN® for age, race, and sex subgroups among 3068 participants (33% African Americans, 38% men) in the baseline examination (1991–97) of The Johnston County Osteoarthritis Project, a population-based study of OA in North Carolina. Radiographic hip OA was defined as Kellgren-Lawrence radiographic grade ≥ 2, moderate/severe radiographic hip OA as grades 3 and 4, and symptomatic hip OA as hip symptoms in a hip with radiographic OA. Results. Hip symptoms were present in 36%; 28% had radiographic hip OA; nearly 10% had symptomatic hip OA; and 2.5% had moderate/severe radiographic hip OA. Prevalence of all 4 outcomes was higher in older individuals; most outcomes were higher for women and African Americans. Conclusion. African Americans in this population do not have a lower prevalence of hip-related OA outcomes as previous studies suggested. Increasing public and health system awareness of the relatively high prevalence of these outcomes, which can be disabling, may help to decrease their effects and ultimately prevent them.

The epidemiology of inflammatory bowel disease : a large, population-based study in Sweden

Previous population-based incidence studies of inflammatory bowel disease are limited by small numbers, short duration, or inadequate case-finding. To address these problems, we identified all persons with confirmed ulcerative colitis (n = 2509) or Crohns disease (n = 1469) in the Uppsala Health Care Region from 1965 to 1983. Age-specific incidence rates by sex were slightly greater for males with ulcerative colitis and females with Crohns disease. Incidence rates for ulcerative colitis and Crohns disease were higher in urban than rural areas. The annual incidence rate of ulcerative colitis increased from less than 7 per 100,000 to more than 12 per 100,000 during the study period, while the rate for Crohns disease remained between 5 and 7 per 100,000. The increase in the incidence of ulcerative colitis was the result of a marked increase in the number of patients with ulcerative proctitis. Analyses by 5-year birth cohorts suggest that those born from 1945 through 1954 were at higher risk for ulcerative colitis and Crohns disease, and that this effect was accounted for by those born in the first half of the year. The seasonality in the cohort effect, combined with the urban preponderance of disease, suggests that environmental causes may be involved in ulcerative colitis and Crohns disease.

Survival and causes of death in patients with inflammatory bowel disease: A population-based study

Relative survival up to December 31, 1986 was analyzed for all patients diagnosed with ulcerative colitis (UC) (n = 2,509) and Crohns disease (CD) (n = 1,469) within the Uppsala Region, Sweden 1965-1983. After 10 years survival was 96% of that expected for UC and CD. Patients with ulcerative proctitis, left-sided colitis, and pancolitis at diagnosis had relative survival rates of 98%, 96%, and 93% respectively. Survival did not differ by extent at diagnosis for patients with CD. After including prevalent cases, 684 deaths occurred compared with 481.1 expected deaths [standardized mortality ratio (SMR) = 1.4; 95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.3-1.5]. Inflammatory bowel disease was the main reason for this excess mortality. Colorectal cancer increased mortality (50 deaths observed vs. 15.2 expected). Death from other cancers were not greater than expected. Obstructive respiratory diseases, especially bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma increased mortality SMR = 1.5 (95% CI = 1.1-2.2) in UC. Cerebrovascular disease mortality occurred less often than expected (SMR = 0.7; 95% CI = 0.5-1.0). Mortality for other diseases and groups of diseases was close to that expected.

Extracolonic malignancies in inflammatory bowel disease

A population‐based cohort with inflammatory bowel disease consisting of 4776 patients (3121 with ulcerative colitis and 1655 with Crohns disease) was followed for 1 to 50 years for the occurrence of malignant neoplasms. Two hundred eighty‐three cancers were observed versus 189.1 expected (standardized incidence ratio [SIR] = 1.5, 95% confidence limits [CL] 1.3 to 1.7). One hundred seventy‐eight extracolonic cancers were observed versus 168.8 expected (SIR = 1.1, 95% CL 0.9 to 1.2). In Crohns disease and extensive ulcerative colitis, observed cases were close to those expected but in ulcerative proctitis, the relative risk of extracolonic cancers was close to significantly increased (SIR = 1.3, 95% CL 1.0 to 1.7). Squamous skin cancers after Crohns disease (SIR = 5.5, 95% CL 2.0 to 11.9) and connective tissue cancers after ulcerative colitis (SIR = 4.0, 95% CL 1.0 to 10.2) were significantly increased. Those having extensive ulcerative colitis at diagnosis had an increased risk of brain cancers (SIR = 2.4, 95% CL 1.0 to 4.6). Patients with extensive ulcerative colitis had lower than expected risk of breast cancer (SIR = 0.4, 95% CL 0.1 to 1.0).

Stomach Cancer after Partial Gastrectomy for Benign Ulcer Disease

We followed for 25 to 33 years 6459 patients who had undergone partial gastrectomy for benign ulcer disease to determine the incidence of stomach cancer. The overall risk was no different from that among sex- and age-matched controls from the Swedish Cancer Registry (standardized incidence ratio = 0.96; 95 percent confidence limits, 0.78 and 1.16). However, when the patients were classified according to the duration of follow-up after operation, sex, surgical procedure, diagnosis at the time of operation, and age at operation, differences in risk were observed between the subgroups. After adjustment for potential confounding variables, the average adjusted risk increased 28 percent (adjusted standardized incidence ratio = 1.28; 95 percent confidence limits, 1.11 and 1.49) for each successive five-year interval after operation. The adjusted risk was greater among women than men (adjusted standardized incidence ratio = 1.96; 95 percent confidence limits, 1.18 and 3.24). Patients who had undergone a Billroth I anastomosis had a lower crude risk, both overall (standardized incidence ratio = 0.40; 95 percent confidence limits, 0.20 and 0.71) and after we controlled for other confounding variables (adjusted standardized incidence ratio = 0.27; 95 percent confidence limits, 0.12 and 0.62), than did those who had undergone a Billroth II procedure. The adjusted risk of stomach cancer was greater among patients operated on for gastric ulcer than among those operated on for duodenal ulcer (adjusted standardized incidence ratio = 2.21; 95 percent confidence limits, 1.45 and 3.35). Risk decreased with increased age at operation. Between successive strata of age at operation (less than 39, 40 to 49, 50 to 59, and greater than or equal to 60 years of age), the adjusted risk decreased on the average by about half (adjusted standardized incidence ratio = 0.52; 95 percent confidence limits, 0.41 and 0.66).