Charles H. Hennekens

C-Reactive Protein and Other Markers of Inflammation in the Prediction of Cardiovascular Disease in Women

BACKGROUND Since inflammation is believed to have a role in the pathogenesis of cardiovascular events, measurement of markers of inflammation has been proposed as a method to improve the prediction of the risk of these events. METHODS We conducted a prospective, nested case-control study among 28,263 apparently healthy postmenopausal women over a mean follow-up period of three years to assess the risk of cardiovascular events associated with base-line levels of markers of inflammation. The markers included high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), serum amyloid A, interleukin-6, and soluble intercellular adhesion molecule type 1 (sICAM-1). We also studied homocysteine and a variety of lipid and lipoprotein measurements. Cardiovascular events were defined as death from coronary heart disease, nonfatal myocardial infarction or stroke, or the need for coronary-revascularization procedures. RESULTS Of the 12 markers measured, hs-CRP was the strongest univariate predictor of the risk of cardiovascular events; the relative risk of events for women in the highest as compared with the lowest quartile for this marker was 4.4 (95 percent confidence interval, 2.2 to 8.9). Other markers significantly associated with the risk of cardiovascular events were serum amyloid A (relative risk for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile, 3.0), sICAM-1 (2.6), interleukin-6 (2.2), homocysteine (2.0), total cholesterol (2.4), LDL cholesterol (2.4), apolipoprotein B-100 (3.4), HDL cholesterol (0.3), and the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol (3.4). Prediction models that incorporated markers of inflammation in addition to lipids were significantly better at predicting risk than models based on lipid levels alone (P<0.001). The levels of hs-CRP and serum amyloid A were significant predictors of risk even in the subgroup of women with LDL cholesterol levels below 130 mg per deciliter (3.4 mmol per liter), the target for primary prevention established by the National Cholesterol Education Program. In multivariate analyses, the only plasma markers that independently predicted risk were hs-CRP (relative risk for the highest as compared with the lowest quartile, 1.5; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 2.1) and the ratio of total cholesterol to HDL cholesterol (relative risk, 1.4; 95 percent confidence interval, 1.1 to 1.9). CONCLUSIONS The addition of the measurement of C-reactive protein to screening based on lipid levels may provide an improved method of identifying persons at risk for cardiovascular events.

Plasma Concentration of Interleukin-6 and the Risk of Future Myocardial Infarction Among Apparently Healthy Men

BACKGROUND Interleukin-6 (IL-6) plays a central role in inflammation and tissue injury. However, epidemiological data evaluating the role of IL-6 in atherogenesis are sparse. METHODS AND RESULTS In a prospective study involving 14 916 apparently healthy men, we measured baseline plasma concentration of IL-6 in 202 participants who subsequently developed myocardial infarction (MI) and in 202 study participants matched for age and smoking status who did not report vascular disease during a 6-year follow-up. Median concentrations of IL-6 at baseline were higher among men who subsequently had an MI than among those who did not (1.81 versus 1. 46 pg/mL; P=0.002). The risk of future MI increased with increasing quartiles of baseline IL-6 concentration (P for trend <0.001) such that men in the highest quartile at entry had a relative risk 2.3 times higher than those in the lowest quartile (95% CI 1.3 to 4.3, P=0.005); for each quartile increase in IL-6, there was a 38% increase in risk (P=0.001).This relationship remained significant after adjustment for other cardiovascular risk factors, was stable over long periods of follow-up, and was present in all low-risk subgroups, including nonsmokers. Although the strongest correlate of IL-6 in these data was C-reactive protein (r=0.43, P<0.001), the relationship of IL-6 with subsequent risk remained after control for this factor (P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS In apparently healthy men, elevated levels of IL-6 are associated with increased risk of future MI. These data thus support a role for cytokine-mediated inflammation in the early stages of atherogenesis.

Vitamin E Consumption and the Risk of Coronary Disease in Women

Background Interest in the antioxidant vitamin E as a possible protective nutrient against coronary disease has intensified with the recognition that oxidized low-density lipoprotein may be involved in atherogenesis. Methods In 1980, 87,245 female nurses 34 to 59 years of age who were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease and cancer completed dietary questionnaires that assessed their consumption of a wide range of nutrients, including vitamin E. During follow-up of up to eight years (679,485 person-years) that was 97 percent complete, we documented 552 cases of major coronary disease (437 nonfatal myocardial infarctions and 115 deaths due to coronary disease). Results As compared with women in the lowest fifth of the cohort with respect to vitamin E intake, those in the top fifth had a relative risk of major coronary disease of 0.66 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.50 to 0.87) after adjustment for age and smoking. Further adjustment for a variety of other coronary risk factors and nutrients, includi...

Prospective Study of C-Reactive Protein and the Risk of Future Cardiovascular Events Among Apparently Healthy Women

BACKGROUND C-reactive protein (CRP) predicts risk of myocardial infarction (MI) and stroke among apparently healthy men, but in women, virtually no data are available. METHODS AND RESULTS CRP was measured in baseline blood samples from 122 apparently healthy participants in the Womens Health Study who subsequently suffered a first cardiovascular event and from 244 age- and smoking-matched control subjects who remained free of cardiovascular disease during a 3-year follow-up period. Women who developed cardiovascular events had higher baseline CRP levels than control subjects (P=0.0001), such that those with the highest levels at baseline had a 5-fold increase in risk of any vascular event (RR=4.8; 95% CI, 2.3 to 10.1; P=0.0001) and a 7-fold increase in risk of MI or stroke (RR=7.3; 95% CI, 2.7 to 19.9; P=0.0001). Risk estimates were independent of other risk factors, and prediction models that included CRP provided a better method to predict risk than models that excluded CRP (all P values <0.01). In stratified analyses, CRP was a predictor among subgroups of women with low as well as high risk as defined by other cardiovascular risk factors. CONCLUSIONS In these prospective data among women, CRP is a strong independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease that adds to the predictive value of risk models based on usual factors alone. (Circulation. 1998;98:731-733.)

A Prospective Study of Obesity and Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women

We examined the incidence of nonfatal and fatal coronary heart disease in relation to obesity in a prospective cohort study of 115,886 U.S. women who were 30 to 55 years of age in 1976 and free of diagnosed coronary disease, stroke, and cancer. During eight years of follow-up (775,430 person-years), we identified 605 first coronary events, including 306 nonfatal myocardial infarctions, 83 deaths due to coronary heart disease, and 216 cases of confirmed angina pectoris. A higher Quetelet index (weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) was positively associated with the occurrence of each category of coronary heart disease. For increasing levels of current Quetelet index (less than 21, 21 to less than 23, 23 to less than 25, 25 to less than 29, and greater than or equal to 29), the relative risks of nonfatal myocardial infarction and fatal coronary heart disease combined, as adjusted for age and cigarette smoking, were 1.0, 1.3, 1.3, 1.8, and 3.3 (Mantel-extension chi for trend = 7.29; P less than 0.00001). As expected, control for a history of hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and hypercholesterolemia--conditions known to be biologic effects of obesity--attenuated the strength of the association. The current Quetelet index was a more important determinant of coronary risk than that at the age of 18; an intervening weight gain increased risk substantially. These prospective data emphasize the importance of obesity as a determinant of coronary heart disease in women. After control for cigarette smoking, which is essential to assess the true effects of obesity, even mild-to-moderate overweight increased the risk of coronary disease in middle-aged women.

Menopause and the Risk of Coronary Heart Disease in Women

To determine the relation of menopause to the risk of coronary heart disease, we analyzed data on a prospective cohort of 121,700 U.S. women 30 to 55 years old who were followed from 1976 to 1982. Information on menopausal status, the type of menopause, and other risk factors was obtained in 1976 and updated every two years by mailing questionnaires. Through 1982, the follow-up rate was 98.3 percent for mortality and 95.4 percent for nonfatal events. After we controlled for age and cigarette smoking, women who had had a natural menopause and who had never taken replacement estrogen had no appreciable increase in the risk of coronary heart disease, as compared with premenopausal women (adjusted rate ratio, 1.2; 95 percent confidence limits, 0.8 and 1.8). Again compared with premenopausal women, the occurrence of a natural menopause together with the use of estrogens did not affect the risk (rate ratio, 0.8, 95 percent confidence limits, 0.4 and 1.3). Women who had undergone bilateral oophorectomy and who had never taken estrogens after menopause had an increased risk (rate ratio, 2.2; 95 percent confidence limits, 1.2 and 4.2). However, the use of estrogens in the postmenopausal period appeared to eliminate this increased risk among these women as compared with premenopausal women (rate ratio, 0.9; 95 percent confidence limits, 0.6 and 1.6). These data suggest that, in contrast to a natural menopause, bilateral oophorectomy increases the risk of coronary heart disease. This increase appears to be prevented by estrogen-replacement therapy.

A Prospective Study of Walking as Compared with Vigorous Exercise in the Prevention of Coronary Heart Disease in Women

BACKGROUND The role of walking, as compared with vigorous exercise, in the prevention of coronary heart disease remains controversial, and data for women on this topic are sparse. METHODS We prospectively examined the associations between the score for total physical activity, walking, and vigorous exercise and the incidence of coronary events among 72,488 female nurses who were 40 to 65 years old in 1986. Participants were free of diagnosed cardiovascular disease or cancer at the time of entry and completed serial detailed questionnaires about physical activity. During eight years of follow-up, we documented 645 incident coronary events (nonfatal myocardial infarction or death from coronary disease). RESULTS There was a strong, graded inverse association between physical activity and the risk of coronary events. As compared with women in the lowest quintile group for energy expenditure (expressed as the metabolic-equivalent [MET] score), women in increasing quintile groups had age-adjusted relative risks of 0.77, 0.65, 0.54, and 0.46 for coronary events (P for trend <0.001). In multivariate analyses, the inverse gradient remained strong (relative risks, 0.88, 0.81, 0.74, and 0.66 for women in increasing quintile groups as compared with those in the lowest quintile group; P for trend=0.002). Walking was inversely associated with the risk of coronary events; women in the highest quintile group for walking, who walked the equivalent of three or more hours per week at a brisk pace, had a multivariate relative risk of 0.65 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.47 to 0.91) as compared with women who walked infrequently. Regular vigorous exercise (> or =6 MET) was associated with similar risk reductions (30 to 40 percent). Sedentary women who became active in middle adulthood or later had a lower risk of coronary events than their counterparts who remained sedentary. CONCLUSIONS These prospective data indicate that brisk walking and vigorous exercise are associated with substantial and similar reductions in the incidence of coronary events among women.

A Prospective Study of Moderate Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Coronary Disease and Stroke in Women

In 1980, 87,526 female nurses 34 to 59 years of age completed a dietary questionnaire that assessed their consumption of beer, wine, and liquor. By 1984, during 334,382 person-years of follow-up, we had documented 200 incident cases of severe coronary heart disease (164 nonfatal myocardial infarctions and 36 deaths due to coronary disease), 66 ischemic strokes, and 28 subarachnoid hemorrhages. Follow-up was 98 percent complete. As compared with nondrinkers, women who consumed 5 to 14 g of alcohol per day (three to nine drinks per week) had a relative risk of coronary disease of 0.6 (95 percent confidence interval, 0.4 to 0.9); for 15 to 24 g per day the relative risk was 0.6 (0.3 to 1.1), and for 25 g or more per day it was 0.4 (0.2 to 0.8), after adjustment for risk factors for coronary disease. Alcohol intake was also associated with a decreased risk of ischemic stroke. For 5 to 14 g of alcohol per day the relative risk was 0.3 (0.1 to 0.7), and for 15 g per day or more it was 0.5 (0.2 to 1.1). In contrast, although the number of cases of subarachnoid hemorrhage was small, alcohol intake tended to be associated with an increased risk of this disorder; for 5 to 14 g per day the relative risk was 3.7 (1.0 to 13.8). These prospective data suggest that among middle-aged women, moderate alcohol consumption decreases the risks of coronary heart disease and ischemic stroke but may increase the risk of subarachnoid hemorrhage.

A Prospective Study of Postmenopausal Estrogen Therapy and Coronary Heart Disease

To clarify the possible role of postmenopausal estrogen use in coronary heart disease, we surveyed 121,964 female nurses, aged 30 to 55 years, with mailed questionnaires, beginning in 1976. Information on hormone use and other potential risk factors was updated and the incidence of coronary heart disease was ascertained through additional questionnaires in 1978 and 1980, with a 92.7 per cent follow-up. End points were documented by medical records. During 105,786 person-years of observation among 32,317 postmenopausal women who were initially free of coronary disease, 90 women had either nonfatal myocardial infarctions (65 cases) or fatal coronary heart disease (25 cases). As compared with the risk in women who had never used postmenopausal hormones, the age-adjusted relative risk of coronary disease in those who had ever used them was 0.5 (95 per cent confidence limits, 0.3 and 0.8; P = 0.007), and the risk in current users was 0.3 (95 per cent confidence limits, 0.2 and 0.6; P = 0.001). The relative risks were similar for fatal and nonfatal disease and were unaltered after adjustment for cigarette smoking, hypertension, diabetes, high cholesterol levels, a parental history of myocardial infarction, past use of oral contraceptives, and obesity. These data support the hypothesis that the postmenopausal use of estrogen reduces the risk of severe coronary heart disease.

Relative and Absolute Excess Risks of Coronary Heart Disease among Women Who Smoke Cigarettes

We prospectively examined the incidence of coronary heart disease in relation to cigarette smoking in a cohort of 119,404 female nurses who were 30 to 55 years of age in 1976 and were free of diagnosed coronary disease. During six years of follow-up, 65 of the women died of fatal coronary heart disease and 242 had a nonfatal myocardial infarction. The number of cigarettes smoked per day was positively associated with the risk of fatal coronary heart disease (relative risk = 5.5 for greater than or equal to 25 cigarettes per day), nonfatal myocardial infarction (relative risk = 5.8), and angina pectoris (relative risk = 2.6). Even smoking 1 to 4 or 5 to 14 cigarettes per day was associated with a twofold to three-fold increase in the risk of fatal coronary heart disease or nonfatal infarction. Overall, cigarette smoking accounted for approximately half these events. The attributable (absolute excess) risk of coronary heart disease due to current smoking was highest among women who were already at increased risk because of older age, a parental history of myocardial infarction, a higher relative weight, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, or diabetes. In contrast, former smokers had little, if any, increase in risk. These prospective data emphasize the importance of cigarette smoking as a determinant of coronary heart disease in women, as well as the markedly increased hazards associated with this habit in combination with other risk factors for this disease.