Charles Jumbe

Cointegration and causality between electricity consumption and GDP: empirical evidence from Malawi

Abstract The Granger-causality (GC) and error correction (ECM) techniques were applied on 1970–1999 data for Malawi to examine cointegration and causality between electricity consumption (kWh) and, respectively, overall GDP, agricultural-GDP (AGDP) and non-agricultural-GDP (NGDP). Cointegration was established between kWh and, respectively, GDP and NGDP, but not with AGDP. The GC results detect bi-directional causality between kWh and GDP suggesting that kWh and GDP are jointly determined, but one-way causality running from NGDP to kWh. The ECM results detect causality running one-way from GDP (also from NGDP) to kWh suggesting that a permanent rise in GDP may cause a permanent growth in electricity consumption.

Do the Poor Benefit from Devolution Policies? Evidence from Malawi’s Forest Co-Management Program

Do local people, especially vulnerable households, benefit from devolution of forest management? We apply the propensity-score matching and decomposition techniques on household data from Chimaliro and Liwonde forest reserves under the pilot forest co-management program in Malawi. After controlling for selection bias, we find that while the program raises forest income for participants in Chimaliro, it reduces revenue for participants in Liwonde. Interestingly, results indicate that the program raises forest income for female and low-income participants, although male and richer participants capture more benefits due to discrimination and endowment differences accounting for 100% and 60% of the inter-group income disparity, respectively. (JEL Q23, O13)

Measuring the Impacts of Malawi's Farm Input Subsidy Program

We measure the impacts of Malawi’s 2009 Farm Input Subsidy Program (FISP) on fertilizer use and maize yields in central and southern Malawi. Using three rounds of panel data and instrumental variables regression strategies to control for endogenous selection into the subsidy program we find positive and statistically significant correlations between participation in the FISP and fertilizer use intensity. Fertilizer use is found to be higher among households that plant improved maize varieties than among those that plant traditional varieties. Results are broadly robust to the inclusion of previous fertilizer intensity to control for household-specific differences in fertilizer use. We combine these results with those from a maize production function to calculate program-generated changes in average maize availability, accounting for estimated subsidy-induced changes in crop area. Our findings have implications for the way input subsidy programs are designed and implemented.

Agricultural subsidies and forest clearing in Malawi

Forests are an important source of environmental services and livelihoods in Africa, thus it is important to determine potential drivers of forest loss. Over recent decades, forest cover has been declining steadily in Malawi. This paper attempts to evaluate the influence of agricultural input subsidies on forest conversion in Malawi. A two-stage regression model analysis of 2009 farm survey data from Chimaliro and Liwonde Forest reserves in Kasungu and Machinga districts, respectively, did not reveal direct evidence of policy-induced forest clearing for agricultural expansion. Instead, subsidy-induced agricultural intensification of food crops, especially maize, appeared to have reduced the rate and extent of forest clearing among households in Malawi compared with households not benefiting from subsidies. However, indirect negative impacts on forests arose due to offtake of trees to construct drying sheds for tobacco, a local cash crop. These findings have implications for designing strategies for simultaneously conserving forests while promoting food security in rural areas, and shed light on the direct and indirect effects of input subsidies.

Forest policies in Malawi, Mozambique, Tanzania and Zimbabwe.

Many countries in eastern and southern Africa have lost significant naturalforest resources. Initially the pace was gradual, but it has accelerated very much in therecent past. Some of the efforts made to contain the situation include revising pastpolicies to improve forestry development and conservation. This paper traces theevolution of such policies together with corresponding implementation mechanismsin Malawi, Mozambique,Tanzania and Zimbabwe. Although broad policy statementson involving local communities in forestry have existed in some countries for severaldecades, adequate resources have not been committed for their effective operation-alisation.Generally, the forestry sector in southern Africa has lagged behind othersectors in revising its policies to adequately reflect political and socio-economic changes. Political and socio-economic policies appear to have taken precedence over forest sector policies, with far reaching consequences for the sector. However, current forest policies are more comprehensive in terms of stakeholders considered and issues addressed.

Poverty–Lack of Access to Adequate Safe Water Nexus: Evidence from Rural Malawi

This paper investigates the relationship between poverty and lack of access to adequate safe water in rural Malawi. Data used in the analysis was collected from a survey covering 1,651 randomly selected households. We use Canonical Correlation Analysis (CCA) as a distinct technique for understanding the poverty–rural water access nexus. CCA results indicate that poverty in the context of low income and expenditure is positively correlated with lack of access to safe and adequate water. Integrated Rural Water Resources Management (IRWM) interventions are therefore needed to address both challenges of poverty and poor access to adequate safe water in rural Malawi.

Survey of local impacts of biofuel crop production and adoption of ethanol stoves in southern Africa

The two datasets outlined in this paper contain information related to (a) the local impacts of biofuel feedstock production, and (b) the factors that influence the adoption and/or sustained use of ethanol stoves in southern Africa. The first dataset was generated through extensive household surveys around four operational jatropha and sugarcane production sites in Malawi, Mozambique, and Swaziland. This project aimed to examine the local impacts of the most prominent modes of existing or intended biofuel feedstock production in southern Africa. The resulting dataset contains information about impacts on rural livelihoods, ecosystem services, food security and poverty alleviation. The second dataset is the outcome of research into factors that influence the adoption and sustained use of ethanol stoves. This dataset was collected through a household survey in Maputo city where the only large-scale ethanol stove dissemination programme in Africa has been implemented.