Charles Nickolos Arge

Diagnostics of Polar Field Reversal in Solar Cycle 23 Using a Flux Transport Dynamo Model

Motivated by observed anomalous features in cycle 23, as inferred from records of photospheric magnetic flux, we develop a flux transport dynamo-based scheme in order to investigate the physical cause of such anomalies. In this first study we focus on understanding anomalies occurring in the polar field evolutionary pattern in cycle 23, namely, why the polar reversal in cycle 23 was slow, why after reversal the buildup of the polar field was slow, and why the south pole reversed approximately a year after the north pole did. We construct a calibrated flux transport dynamo model that operates with dynamo ingredients such as differential rotation, meridional circulation, and large-scale poloidal field source derived from observations. A few other dynamo ingredients, such as diffusivity and quenching pattern, for which direct observations are not possible, are fixed by using theoretical guidance. By showing that this calibrated model can reproduce major longitude-averaged solar cycle features, we initialize the model at the beginning of cycle 22 and operate by incorporating the observed variations in meridional circulation and large-scale surface magnetic field sources to simulate the polar field evolution in cycle 23. We show that a 10%-20% weakening in photospheric magnetic flux in cycle 23 with respect to that in cycle 22 is the primary reason for a ~1 yr slowdown in polar reversal in cycle 23. Weakening in this flux is also the reason for slow buildup of polar field after reversal, whereas the observed north-south asymmetry in meridional circulation in the form of a larger decrease in flow speed in the northern hemisphere than that in the southern hemisphere during 1996-2002 and the appearance of a reverse, high-latitude flow cell in the northern hemisphere during 1998-2001 caused the north polar field to reverse before the south polar field.

Improved Method for Specifying Solar Wind Speed Near the Sun

We have found an improved technique for empirically specifying solar wind flow speed near the Sun (∼0.1 AU) using a set of three simple inter‐linked coronal/solar wind models. In addition to magnetic field expansion factor, solar wind speed also appears to be influenced by the minimum angular distance that an open field footpoint lies from a coronal hole boundary. We conduct our study using polar field corrected Mount Wilson Solar Observatory Carrington maps from 1995. During this period, the Sun was in the declining phase of the solar cycle and the solar wind had relatively simple global structure.

Ensemble modeling of successive halo CMEs observed during 2-4 Aug 2011

Previously, we investigated the sensitivity of the 3D MHD Wang-Sheeley-Arge (WSA)-Enlil numerical results to the input “cone” geometry for an Earth-directed “halo” coronal mass ejection (CME) event [1]. A modeling ensemble was created from multiple sets of input parameters obtained through the use of the cone fitting tool together with realistic ranges for the angular width and leading edge distance estimated from STEREO limb observations. We obtained a spread of ~ 13 hours in the ensemble shock arrival times, which overlapped and was nearly centered on the observed arrival time. Because the sensitivity of the modeling ensemble may be event-dependent, we conduct an ensemble modeling study for three consecutive halo CME events. These events were selected in part because of the availability of STEREO limb observations, which help to constrain the initial CME geometries during the cone fitting process, but also because of the opportunity to explore the predictive capability of WSA-Enlil-cone in modeling mult...