Charles S. Zender

Present‐day climate forcing and response from black carbon in snow

and +0.049 (0.007–0.12) W m � 2 , respectively. Snow forcing from only fossil fuel + biofuel sources is +0.043 W m � 2 (forcing from only fossil fuels is +0.033 W m � 2 ), suggesting that the anthropogenic contribution to total forcing is at least 80%. The 1998 global land and sea-ice snowpack absorbed 0.60 and 0.23 W m � 2 , respectively, because of direct BC/snow forcing. The forcing is maximum coincidentally with snowmelt onset, triggering strong snow-albedo feedback in local springtime. Consequently, the ‘‘efficacy’’ of BC/snow forcing is more than three times greater than forcing by CO2. The 1998 and 2001 land snowmelt rates north of 50N are 28% and 19% greater in the month preceding maximum melt of control simulations without BC in snow. With climate feedbacks, global annual mean 2-meter air temperature warms 0.15 and 0.10C, when BC is included in snow, whereas annual arctic warming is 1.61 and 0.50C. Stronger highlatitude climate response in 1998 than 2001 is at least partially caused by boreal fires, which account for nearly all of the 35% biomass burning contribution to 1998 arctic forcing. Efficacy was anomalously large in this experiment, however, and more research is required to elucidate the role of boreal fires, which we suggest have maximum arctic BC/snow forcing potential during April–June. Model BC concentrations in snow agree reasonably well (r = 0.78) with a set of 23 observations from various locations, spanning nearly 4 orders of magnitude. We predict concentrations in excess of 1000 ng g � 1 for snow in northeast China, enough to lower snow albedo by more than 0.13. The greatest instantaneous forcing is over the Tibetan Plateau, exceeding 20 W m � 2 in some places during spring. These results indicate that snow darkening is an important component of carbon aerosol climate forcing.

Mineral Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model: Description and 1990s dust climatology

17 ± 2 Tg; and optical depth at 0.63 mm, 0.030 ± 0.004. This emission, burden, and optical depth are significantly lower than some recent estimates. The model underestimates transport and deposition of East Asian and Australian dust to some regions of the Pacific Ocean. An underestimate of long-range transport of particles larger than 3 mm contributes to this bias. Our experiments support the hypothesis that dust emission ‘‘hot spots’’ exist in regions where alluvial sediments have accumulated and may be disturbed. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 0322 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Constituent sources and sinks; 4801 Oceanography: Biological and Chemical: Aerosols (0305); 5415 Planetology: Solid Surface Planets: Erosion and weathering; KEYWORDS: mineral dust aerosol, aerosol climatology, mineral deposition, aerosol scavenging, saltation sandblasting, ecosystem fertilization

The Impact of Boreal Forest Fire on Climate Warming

We report measurements and analysis of a boreal forest fire, integrating the effects of greenhouse gases, aerosols, black carbon deposition on snow and sea ice, and postfire changes in surface albedo. The net effect of all agents was to increase radiative forcing during the first year (34 ± 31 Watts per square meter of burned area), but to decrease radiative forcing when averaged over an 80-year fire cycle (–2.3 ± 2.2 Watts per square meter) because multidecadal increases in surface albedo had a larger impact than fire-emitted greenhouse gases. This result implies that future increases in boreal fire may not accelerate climate warming.

Change in atmospheric mineral aerosols in response to climate: Last glacial period, preindustrial, modern, and doubled carbon dioxide climates

Desert dust simulations generated by the National Center for Atmospheric Researchs Community Climate System Model for the current climate are shown to be consistent with present day satellite and deposition data. The response of the dust cycle to last glacial maximum, preindustrial, modern, and doubled-carbon dioxide climates is analyzed. Only natural (non-land use related) dust sources are included in this simulation. Similar to some previous studies, dust production mainly responds to changes in the source areas from vegetation changes, not from winds or soil moisture changes alone. This model simulates a +92%, +33%, and −60% change in dust loading for the last glacial maximum, preindustrial, and doubled-carbon dioxide climate, respectively, when impacts of carbon dioxide fertilization on vegetation are included in the model. Terrestrial sediment records from the last glacial maximum compiled here indicate a large underestimate of deposition in continental regions, probably due to the lack of simulation of glaciogenic dust sources. In order to include the glaciogenic dust sources as a first approximation, we designate the location of these sources, and infer the size of the sources using an inversion method that best matches the available data. The inclusion of these inferred glaciogenic dust sources increases our dust flux in the last glacial maximum from 2.1 to 3.3 times current deposition.

20th-Century Industrial Black Carbon Emissions Altered Arctic Climate Forcing

Black carbon (BC) from biomass and fossil fuel combustion alters chemical and physical properties of the atmosphere and snow albedo, yet little is known about its emission or deposition histories. Measurements of BC, vanillic acid, and non–sea-salt sulfur in ice cores indicate that sources and concentrations of BC in Greenland precipitation varied greatly since 1788 as a result of boreal forest fires and industrial activities. Beginning about 1850, industrial emissions resulted in a sevenfold increase in ice-core BC concentrations, with most change occurring in winter. BC concentrations after about 1951 were lower but increasing. At its maximum from 1906 to 1910, estimated surface climate forcing in early summer from BC in Arctic snow was about 3 watts per square meter, which is eight times the typical preindustrial forcing value.

Simulating aerosols using a chemical transport model with assimilation of satellite aerosol retrievals: Methodology for INDOEX

A system for simulating aerosols has been developed using a chemical transport model together with an assimilation of satellite aerosol retrievals. The methodology and model components are described in this paper, and the modeled distribution of aerosols for the Indian Ocean Experiment (INDOEX) is presented by Rasch et al. [this issue]. The system generated aerosol forecasts to guide deployment of ships and aircraft during INDOEX. The system consists of the Model of Atmospheric Transport and Chemistry (MATCH) combined with an assimilation package developed for applications in atmospheric chemistry. MATCH predicts the evolution of sulfate, carbonaceous, and mineral dust aerosols, and it diagnoses the distribution of sea salt aerosols. The model includes a detailed treatment of the sources, chemical transformation, transport, and deposition of the aerosol species. The aerosol forecasts involve a two-stage process. During the assimilation phase the total column aerosol optical depth (AOD) is estimated from the model aerosol fields. The model state is then adjusted to improve the agreement between the simulated AOD and satellite retrievals of AOD. During the subsequent integration phase the aerosol fields are evolved using meteorological fields from an external model. Comparison of the modeled AOD against estimates of the AOD from INDOEX Sun photometer data show that the differences in daily means are -0.03 ± 0.06. Although the initial application is limited to the Indian Ocean, the methodology could be extended to derive global aerosol analyses combining in situ and remotely sensed aerosol observations. Copyright 2001 by the American Geophysical Union.

Impact of Desert Dust Radiative Forcing on Sahel Precipitation: Relative Importance of Dust Compared to Sea Surface Temperature Variations, Vegetation Changes, and Greenhouse Gas Warming

The role of direct radiative forcing of desert dust aerosol in the change from wet to dry climate observed in the African Sahel region in the last half of the twentieth century is investigated using simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model. The model simulations are conducted either forced by the observed sea surface temperature (SST) or coupled with the interactive SST using the Slab Ocean Model (SOM). The simulation model uses dust that is less absorbing in the solar wavelengths and has larger particle sizes than other simulation studies. As a result, simulations show less shortwave absorption within the atmosphere and larger longwave radiative forcing by dust. Simulations using SOM show reduced precipitation over the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) including the Sahel region and increased precipitation south of the ITCZ when dust radiative forcing is included. In SST-forced simulations, on the other hand, significant precipitation changes are restricted to over North Africa. These changes are considered to be due to the cooling of global tropical oceans as well as the cooling of the troposphere over North Africa in response to dust radiative forcing. The model simulation of dust cannot capture the magnitude of the observed increase of desert dust when allowing dust to respond to changes in simulated climate, even including changes in vegetation, similar to previous studies. If the model is forced to capture observed changes in desert dust, the direct radiative forcing by the increase of North African dust can explain up to 30% of the observed precipitation reduction in the Sahel between wet and dry periods. A large part of this effect comes through atmospheric forcing of dust, and dust forcing on the Atlantic Ocean SST appears to have a smaller impact. The changes in the North and South Atlantic SSTs may account for up to 50% of the Sahel precipitation reduction. Vegetation loss in the Sahel region may explain about 10% of the observed drying, but this effect is statistically insignificant because of the small number of years in the simulation. Greenhouse gas warming seems to have an impact to increase Sahel precipitation that is opposite to the observed change. Although the estimated values of impacts are likely to be model dependent, analyses suggest the importance of direct radiative forcing of dust and feedbacks in modulating Sahel precipitation.

Spatial heterogeneity in aeolian erodibility: Uniform, topographic, geomorphic, and hydrologic hypotheses

[1] Soil aeolian erodibility is the efficiency with which soil produces dust for a given meteorological forcing. Quantifying soil erodibility is crucial for forecasting dust events and the climatological distribution and forcing of dust. We use long-term station observations and satellite indices of mineral dust to ascertain the role of regional topography, geomorphology, and hydrology in controlling sediment availability and erodibility. Our null hypothesis is that soil erodibility is globally uniform, so that emissions are determined by instantaneous local meteorology, vegetation, and soil moisture. We describe and quantify three competing hypotheses on regional processes which may affect local soil erodibility: (1) Erodibility is characterized by the relative elevation of source regions in surrounding basins. (2) Erodibility is characterized by the upstream area from which sediments may have accumulated locally through all climate regimes. (3) Erodibility is characterized by the local present-day surface runoff. These hypotheses are tested in 3-year simulations of the global Dust Entrainment and Deposition (DEAD) model. All three spatially varying erodibility hypotheses produce significantly better agreement with station and satellite data than the null (Uniform) hypothesis. The Uniform hypothesis explains none of the spatial structure of emissions in Australia. Heterogeneous erodibility may explain up to 15–20%, 15–20%, and 50% more of the spatial structure of dust emissions than Uniform erodibility in the Sahara+Arabian Peninsula, East Asia, and Australia, respectively. The Geomorphic erodibility hypothesis performs best overall, but results vary by region and by metric. These results support the hypothesis that dust emission ‘‘hot spots’’ exist in regions where alluvial sediments have accumulated and may be disturbed. Our physically based erodibility hypotheses help explain dust observations in some regions, particularly East Asia, and can be used to help discriminate between natural and anthropogenic soil emissions. INDEX TERMS: 0305 Atmospheric Composition and Structure: Aerosols and particles (0345, 4801); 1625 Global Change: Geomorphology and weathering (1824, 1886); 1815 Hydrology: Erosion and sedimentation; 1824 Hydrology: Geomorphology (1625); KEYWORDS: mineral dust aerosol, arid geomorphology, aeolian processes, hydrologic routing, landscape erodibility

Constraining the magnitude of the global dust cycle by minimizing the difference between a model and observations

Current estimates of global dust emission vary by over a factor of two. Here, we use multiple data types and a worldwide array of stations combined with a dust model to constrain the magnitude of the global dust cycle for particles with radii between 0.1 and 8 μm. An optimal value of global emission is calculated by minimizing the difference between the model dust distribution and observations. The optimal global emission is most sensitive to the prescription of the dust source region. Depending upon the assumed source, the agreement with observations is greatest for global, annual emission ranging from 1500 to 2600 Tg. However, global annual emission between 1000 and 3000 Tg remains in agreement with the observations, given small changes in the method of optimization. Both ranges include values that are substantially larger than calculated by current dust models. In contrast, the optimal fraction of clay particles (whose radii are less than 1 μm) is lower than current model estimates. The optimal solution identified by a combination of data sets is different from that identified by any single data set and is more robust. Uncertainty is introduced into the optimal emission by model biases and the uncertain contribution of other aerosol species to the observations.

Recent Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion primarily driven by black carbon and tropospheric ozone.

Observational analyses have shown the width of the tropical belt increasing in recent decades as the world has warmed. This expansion is important because it is associated with shifts in large-scale atmospheric circulation and major climate zones. Although recent studies have attributed tropical expansion in the Southern Hemisphere to ozone depletion, the drivers of Northern Hemisphere expansion are not well known and the expansion has not so far been reproduced by climate models. Here we use a climate model with detailed aerosol physics to show that increases in heterogeneous warming agents—including black carbon aerosols and tropospheric ozone—are noticeably better than greenhouse gases at driving expansion, and can account for the observed summertime maximum in tropical expansion. Mechanistically, atmospheric heating from black carbon and tropospheric ozone has occurred at the mid-latitudes, generating a poleward shift of the tropospheric jet, thereby relocating the main division between tropical and temperate air masses. Although we still underestimate tropical expansion, the true aerosol forcing is poorly known and could also be underestimated. Thus, although the insensitivity of models needs further investigation, black carbon and tropospheric ozone, both of which are strongly influenced by human activities, are the most likely causes of observed Northern Hemisphere tropical expansion.