Charles Stiller

Global surveillance of cancer survival 1995–2009: analysis of individual data for 25 676 887 patients from 279 population-based registries in 67 countries (CONCORD-2)

BACKGROUND Worldwide data for cancer survival are scarce. We aimed to initiate worldwide surveillance of cancer survival by central analysis of population-based registry data, as a metric of the effectiveness of health systems, and to inform global policy on cancer control. METHODS Individual tumour records were submitted by 279 population-based cancer registries in 67 countries for 25·7 million adults (age 15-99 years) and 75,000 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer during 1995-2009 and followed up to Dec 31, 2009, or later. We looked at cancers of the stomach, colon, rectum, liver, lung, breast (women), cervix, ovary, and prostate in adults, and adult and childhood leukaemia. Standardised quality control procedures were applied; errors were corrected by the registry concerned. We estimated 5-year net survival, adjusted for background mortality in every country or region by age (single year), sex, and calendar year, and by race or ethnic origin in some countries. Estimates were age-standardised with the International Cancer Survival Standard weights. FINDINGS 5-year survival from colon, rectal, and breast cancers has increased steadily in most developed countries. For patients diagnosed during 2005-09, survival for colon and rectal cancer reached 60% or more in 22 countries around the world; for breast cancer, 5-year survival rose to 85% or higher in 17 countries worldwide. Liver and lung cancer remain lethal in all nations: for both cancers, 5-year survival is below 20% everywhere in Europe, in the range 15-19% in North America, and as low as 7-9% in Mongolia and Thailand. Striking rises in 5-year survival from prostate cancer have occurred in many countries: survival rose by 10-20% between 1995-99 and 2005-09 in 22 countries in South America, Asia, and Europe, but survival still varies widely around the world, from less than 60% in Bulgaria and Thailand to 95% or more in Brazil, Puerto Rico, and the USA. For cervical cancer, national estimates of 5-year survival range from less than 50% to more than 70%; regional variations are much wider, and improvements between 1995-99 and 2005-09 have generally been slight. For women diagnosed with ovarian cancer in 2005-09, 5-year survival was 40% or higher only in Ecuador, the USA, and 17 countries in Asia and Europe. 5-year survival for stomach cancer in 2005-09 was high (54-58%) in Japan and South Korea, compared with less than 40% in other countries. By contrast, 5-year survival from adult leukaemia in Japan and South Korea (18-23%) is lower than in most other countries. 5-year survival from childhood acute lymphoblastic leukaemia is less than 60% in several countries, but as high as 90% in Canada and four European countries, which suggests major deficiencies in the management of a largely curable disease. INTERPRETATION International comparison of survival trends reveals very wide differences that are likely to be attributable to differences in access to early diagnosis and optimum treatment. Continuous worldwide surveillance of cancer survival should become an indispensable source of information for cancer patients and researchers and a stimulus for politicians to improve health policy and health-care systems. FUNDING Canadian Partnership Against Cancer (Toronto, Canada), Cancer Focus Northern Ireland (Belfast, UK), Cancer Institute New South Wales (Sydney, Australia), Cancer Research UK (London, UK), Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Atlanta, GA, USA), Swiss Re (London, UK), Swiss Cancer Research foundation (Bern, Switzerland), Swiss Cancer League (Bern, Switzerland), and University of Kentucky (Lexington, KY, USA).

International Classification of Childhood Cancer, third edition

The third edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD‐O‐3), which was published in 2000, introduced major changes in coding and classification of neoplasms, notably for leukemias and lymphomas, which are important groups of cancer types that occur in childhood. This necessitated a third revision of the 1996 International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC‐3).

Geographical patterns and time trends of cancer incidence and survival among children and adolescents in Europe since the 1970s (the ACCIS project): an epidemiological study

BACKGROUND Cancer is rare before age 20 years. We aimed to use the European database of childhood and adolescent cancer cases, within the Automated Childhood Cancer Information System project, to estimate patterns and trends of incidence and survival within Europe. METHODS Comparable, high-quality data from 63 European population-based cancer registries consisted of 113000 tumours in children and 18243 in adolescents diagnosed in 1970-99. Incidence rates and survival were compared by region (east vs west), period, and malignant disease. FINDINGS In the 1990s, age-standardised incidence rates were 140 per million for children (0-14 years) and 157 per million for ages 0-19 years. Over the three decades, overall incidence increased by 1.0% per year (p<0.0001) in children (increases for most tumour types), and by 1.5% (p<0.0001) in adolescents (15-19 years; notable increases were recorded for carcinomas, lymphomas, and germ-cell tumours). Overall 5-year survival for children in the 1990s was 64% in the east and 75% in the west, with differences between regions for virtually all tumour groups; 5-year survival was much the same in adolescents. Survival has improved dramatically since the 1970s in children and adolescents, more so in the west than in the east. INTERPRETATION Our results are clear evidence of an increase of cancer incidence in childhood and adolescence during the past decades, and of an acceleration of this trend. Geographical and temporal patterns suggest areas for further study into causes of these neoplasms, as well as providing an indicator of progress of public-health policy in Europe.

The international classification of childhood cancer

The International Classification of Childhood Cancer (ICCC) updates the widely used Birch and Marsden classification scheme. ICCC is based on the second edition of the International Classification of Diseases for Oncology (ICD‐O‐2). The purpose of the new classification is to accommodate important changes in recognition of different types of neoplasms, while preserving continuity with the original classification. The grouping of neoplasms into 12 main diagnostic groups is maintained. The major changes are: (1) intracranial and intraspinal germ‐cell tumours now constitute a separate subgroup within germ‐cell tumours; (2) histiocytosis X (Langerhans‐cell histiocytosis) is excluded from ICCC; (3) Kaposis sarcoma is a separate subgroup within soft‐tissue sarcomas; (4) skin carcinoma is a separate subgroup within epithelial neoplasms; (5) “other specified” and “unspecified” neoplasms are now usually separate sub‐categories within the main diagnostic groups. Draft copies of the ICCC were distributed to some 200 professionals with interest and expertise in the field and their comments are considered in this final version. This classification will be used for presentation of data in the second volume of the IARC Scientific Publication “International Incidence of Childhood Cancer.” A computer programme for automated classification of childhood tumours coded according to ICD‐O‐I or ICD‐O‐2 is now available from IARC.

Survival of European children and young adults with cancer diagnosed 1995–2002

This study analyses survival in 40,392 children (age 0-14 years) and 30,187 adolescents/young adults (age 15-24 years) diagnosed with cancer between 1995 and 2002. The cases were from 83 European population-based cancer registries in 23 countries participating in EUROCARE-4. Five-year survival in countries and in regional groupings of countries was compared for all cancers combined and for major cancers. Survival for 15 rare cancers in children was also analysed. Five-year survival for all cancers combined was 81% in children and 87% in adolescents/young adults. Between-country survival differences narrowed for both children and adolescents/young adults. Relative risk of death reduced significantly, by 8% in children and by 13% in adolescents/young adults, from 1995-1999 to 2000-2002. Survival improved significantly over time for acute lymphoid leukaemia and primitive neuroectodermal tumours in children and for non-Hodgkin lymphoma in adolescents/young adults. Cancer survival in patients <25 years is poorly documented in Eastern European countries. Complete cancer registration should be a priority for these countries as an essential part of a policy for effective cancer control in Europe.

Long-term cause-specific mortality among survivors of childhood cancer.

CONTEXT Survivors of childhood cancer are at increased risk of premature mortality compared with the general population, but little is known about the long-term risks of specific causes of death, particularly beyond 25 years from diagnosis at ages when background mortality in the general population starts to increase substantially. OBJECTIVE To investigate long-term cause-specific mortality among 5-year survivors of childhood cancer in a large-scale population-based cohort. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS British Childhood Cancer Survivor Study, a population-based cohort of 17,981 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed with cancer before age 15 years between 1940 and 1991 in Britain and followed up until the end of 2006. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Cause-specific standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and absolute excess risks (AERs). RESULTS Overall, 3049 deaths were observed, which was 11 times the number expected (SMR, 10.7; 95% confidence interval [CI], 10.3-11.1). The SMR declined with follow-up but was still 3-fold higher than expected (95% CI, 2.5-3.9) 45 years from diagnosis. The AER for deaths from recurrence declined from 97 extra deaths (95% CI, 92-101) per 10,000 person-years at 5 to 14 years from diagnosis, to 8 extra deaths (95% CI, 3-22) beyond 45 years from diagnosis. In contrast, during the same periods of follow-up, the AER for deaths from second primary cancers and circulatory causes increased from 8 extra deaths (95% CI, 7-10) and 2 extra deaths (95% CI, 2-3) to 58 extra deaths (95% CI, 38-90) and 29 extra deaths (95% CI, 16-56), respectively. Beyond 45 years from diagnosis, recurrence accounted for 7% of the excess number of deaths observed while second primary cancers and circulatory deaths together accounted for 77%. CONCLUSION Among a cohort of British survivors of childhood cancer, excess mortality from second primary cancers and circulatory diseases continued to occur beyond 25 years from diagnosis.

Centralised treatment, entry to trials and survival.

A review was carried out of the published literature on survival rates for cancer in relation to patterns of organisation of medical care, specifically treatment at specialist centres or at hospitals treating larger numbers of patients and treatment by protocol, usually within the context of a clinical trial. Centralised referral or entry to trials was frequently associated with a higher survival rate, particularly for the less common cancers, and was never found to be associated with a lower survival rate. Few studies were identified for any one cancer site and some antedated current methods of treatment. At a time when the health service in the United Kingdom is undergoing far-reaching organisational change, further research is needed to establish the most beneficial patterns of care for people with cancer. Population-based cancer registries are an invaluable source of data for such studies.

DICER1 syndrome: clarifying the diagnosis, clinical features and management implications of a pleiotropic tumour predisposition syndrome

Background Constitutional DICER1 mutations were recently reported to cause familial pleuropulmonary blastoma (PPB). Aim To investigate the contribution and phenotypic spectrum of constitutional and somatic DICER1 mutations to cancer. Methods and results The authors sequenced DICER1 in constitutional DNA from 823 unrelated patients with a variety of tumours and in 781 cancer cell lines. Constitutional DICER1 mutations were identified in 19 families including 11/14 with PPB, 2/3 with cystic nephroma, 4/7 with ovarian Sertoli–Leydig-type tumours, 1/243 with Wilms tumour (this patient also had a Sertoli–Leydig tumour), 1/1 with intraocular medulloepithelioma (this patient also had PPB), 1/86 with medulloblastoma/infratentorial primitive neuroectodermal tumour, and 1/172 with germ cell tumour. The inheritance was investigated in 17 families. DICER1 mutations were identified in 25 relatives: 17 were unaffected, one mother had ovarian Sertoli–Leydig tumour, one half-sibling had cystic nephroma, and six relatives had non-toxic thyroid cysts/goitre. Analysis of eight tumours from DICER1 mutation-positive patients showed universal retention of the wild-type allele. DICER1 truncating mutations were identified in 4/781 cancer cell lines; all were in microsatellite unstable lines and therefore unlikely to be driver mutations. Conclusion Constitutional DICER1 haploinsufficiency predisposes to a broad range of tumours, making a substantial contribution to PPB, cystic nephroma and ovarian Sertoli–Leydig tumours, but a smaller contribution to other tumours. Most mutation carriers are unaffected, indicating that tumour risk is modest. The authors define the clinical contexts in which DICER1 mutation testing should be considered, the associated tumour risks, and the implications for at-risk individuals. They have termed this condition ‘DICER1 syndrome’. Accession numbers The cDNA Genbank accession number for the DICER1 sequence reported in this paper is NM_030621.2.

Neurofibromatosis and childhood leukaemia/lymphoma: a population-based UKCCSG study.

There is a well-known raised risk of leukaemia in children with neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF-1). We carried out the first detailed population-based study of leukaemia and non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) associated with NF-1 in order to estimate the risk and elucidate the relationship between these conditions. Over the 17 year study period there were five cases of chronic myelomonocytic leukaemia (CMML) in patients with NF-1 (relative risk 221; 95% CI 71-514), 12 cases of acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL) (relative risk 5.4; 95% CI 2.8-9.4) and five cases of NHL (relative risk 10.0; 95% CI 3.3-23.4). Marrow cytogenetics could be reviewed for seven patients. Specific abnormalities found were monosomy 21 in a child with CMML and 7p+, 17p- in a child with ALL. No abnormalities were reported of 17q, which includes the NF1 gene. CMML occurred predominantly in boys, who also had a family history of NF-1. ALL and NHL were more often found in children with no previous family history.

Epidemiology and genetics of childhood cancer

Childhood cancer is rare everywhere in the world, with age-standardized annual incidence usually between 70 and 160 per million at age 0–14 years. Greater variation is seen between populations for some specific tumour types. Some of the largest variations are geographical and are attributable to environmental factors, whereas variation mainly on ethnic lines seems likely to be a marker of genetic predisposition. A wide range of familial and genetic syndromes is associated with an increased risk of childhood cancer. Virtually all the excess risk of cancer among first-degree relatives of children with cancer can be accounted for by known hereditary syndromes. Studies of weak predisposition and gene–environment interaction have so far shown limited consistency. There are very few established environmental or exogenous risk factors and most of these are infective agents. Many putative risk factors can hardly ever be investigated epidemiologically except by interview or questionnaire studies. Some recent examples illustrate the continuing problems of participation bias and recall bias.