Charlotte Jackson

Estimates of the Transmissibility of the 1968 (Hong Kong) Influenza Pandemic: Evidence of Increased Transmissibility Between Successive Waves

The transmissibility of the strain of influenza virus which caused the 1968 influenza pandemic is poorly understood. Increases in outbreak size between the first and second waves suggest that it may even have increased between successive waves. The authors estimated basic and effective reproduction numbers for both waves of the 1968 influenza pandemic. Epidemic curves and overall attack rates for the 1968 pandemic, based on clinical and serologic data, were retrieved from published literature. The basic and effective reproduction numbers were estimated from 46 and 17 data sets for the first and second waves, respectively, based on the growth rate and/or final size of the epidemic. Estimates of the basic reproduction number (R0) were in the range of 1.06–2.06 for the first wave and, assuming cross-protection, 1.21–3.58 in the second. Within each wave, there was little geographic variation in transmissibility. In the 10 settings for which data were available for both waves, R0 was estimated to be higher during the second wave than during the first. This might partly explain the larger outbreaks in the second wave as compared with the first. This potential for change in viral behavior may have consequences for future pandemic mitigation strategies.

Interpreting whole genome sequencing for investigating tuberculosis transmission: a systematic review

BackgroundWhole genome sequencing (WGS) is becoming an important part of epidemiological investigations of infectious diseases due to greater resolution and cost reductions compared to traditional typing approaches. Many public health and clinical teams will increasingly use WGS to investigate clusters of potential pathogen transmission, making it crucial to understand the benefits and assumptions of the analytical methods for investigating the data. We aimed to understand how different approaches affect inferences of transmission dynamics and outline limitations of the methods.MethodsWe comprehensively searched electronic databases for studies that presented methods used to interpret WGS data for investigating tuberculosis (TB) transmission. Two authors independently selected studies for inclusion and extracted data. Due to considerable methodological heterogeneity between studies, we present summary data with accompanying narrative synthesis rather than pooled analyses.ResultsTwenty-five studies met our inclusion criteria. Despite the range of interpretation tools, the usefulness of WGS data in understanding TB transmission often depends on the amount of genetic diversity in the setting. Where diversity is small, distinguishing re-infections from relapses may be impossible; interpretation may be aided by the use of epidemiological data, examining minor variants and deep sequencing. Conversely, when within-host diversity is large, due to genetic hitchhiking or co-infection of two dissimilar strains, it is critical to understand how it arose. Greater understanding of microevolution and mixed infection will enhance interpretation of WGS data.ConclusionsAs sequencing studies have sampled more intensely and integrated multiple sources of information, the understanding of TB transmission and diversity has grown, but there is still much to be learnt about the origins of diversity that will affect inferences from these data. Public health teams and researchers should combine epidemiological, clinical and WGS data to strengthen investigations of transmission.

School Closures and Student Contact Patterns

To determine how school closure for pandemic (H1N1) 2009 affected students’ contact patterns, we conducted a retrospective questionnaire survey at a UK school 2 weeks after the school reopened. School closure was associated with a 65% reduction in the mean total number of contacts for each student.

Using Seroprevalence and Immunisation Coverage Data to Estimate the Global Burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome, 1996-2010: A Systematic Review.

Background The burden of Congenital Rubella Syndrome (CRS) is typically underestimated in routine surveillance. Updated estimates are needed following the recent WHO position paper on rubella and recent GAVI initiatives, funding rubella vaccination in eligible countries. Previous estimates considered the year 1996 and only 78 (developing) countries. Methods We reviewed the literature to identify rubella seroprevalence studies conducted before countries introduced rubella-containing vaccination (RCV). These data and the estimated vaccination coverage in the routine schedule and mass campaigns were incorporated in mathematical models to estimate the CRS incidence in 1996 and 2000–2010 for each country, region and globally. Results The estimated CRS decreased in the three regions (Americas, Europe and Eastern Mediterranean) which had introduced widespread RCV by 2010, reaching <2 per 100,000 live births (the Americas and Europe) and 25 (95% CI 4–61) per 100,000 live births (the Eastern Mediterranean). The estimated incidence in 2010 ranged from 90 (95% CI: 46–195) in the Western Pacific, excluding China, to 116 (95% CI: 56–235) and 121 (95% CI: 31–238) per 100,000 live births in Africa and SE Asia respectively. Highest numbers of cases were predicted in Africa (39,000, 95% CI: 18,000–80,000) and SE Asia (49,000, 95% CI: 11,000–97,000). In 2010, 105,000 (95% CI: 54,000–158,000) CRS cases were estimated globally, compared to 119,000 (95% CI: 72,000–169,000) in 1996. Conclusions Whilst falling dramatically in the Americas, Europe and the Eastern Mediterranean after vaccination, the estimated CRS incidence remains high elsewhere. Well-conducted seroprevalence studies can help to improve the reliability of these estimates and monitor the impact of rubella vaccination.

The effects of school closures on influenza outbreaks and pandemics: systematic review of simulation studies.

Background School closure is a potential intervention during an influenza pandemic and has been investigated in many modelling studies. Objectives To systematically review the effects of school closure on influenza outbreaks as predicted by simulation studies. Methods We searched Medline and Embase for relevant modelling studies published by the end of October 2012, and handsearched key journals. We summarised the predicted effects of school closure on the peak and cumulative attack rates and the duration of the epidemic. We investigated how these predictions depended on the basic reproduction number, the timing and duration of closure and the assumed effects of school closures on contact patterns. Results School closures were usually predicted to be most effective if they caused large reductions in contact, if transmissibility was low (e.g. a basic reproduction number <2), and if attack rates were higher in children than in adults. The cumulative attack rate was expected to change less than the peak, but quantitative predictions varied (e.g. reductions in the peak were frequently 20–60% but some studies predicted >90% reductions or even increases under certain assumptions). This partly reflected differences in model assumptions, such as those regarding population contact patterns. Conclusions Simulation studies suggest that school closure can be a useful control measure during an influenza pandemic, particularly for reducing peak demand on health services. However, it is difficult to accurately quantify the likely benefits. Further studies of the effects of reactive school closures on contact patterns are needed to improve the accuracy of model predictions.

The Effects of School Holidays on Transmission of Varicella Zoster Virus, England and Wales, 1967–2008

Background Changes in children’s contact patterns between termtime and school holidays affect the transmission of several respiratory-spread infections. Transmission of varicella zoster virus (VZV), the causative agent of chickenpox, has also been linked to the school calendar in several settings, but temporal changes in the proportion of young children attending childcare centres may have influenced this relationship. Methods We used two modelling methods (a simple difference equations model and a Time series Susceptible Infectious Recovered (TSIR) model) to estimate fortnightly values of a contact parameter (the per capita rate of effective contact between two specific individuals), using GP consultation data for chickenpox in England and Wales from 1967–2008. Results The estimated contact parameters were 22–31% lower during the summer holiday than during termtime. The relationship between the contact parameter and the school calendar did not change markedly over the years analysed. Conclusions In England and Wales, reductions in contact between children during the school summer holiday lead to a reduction in the transmission of VZV. These estimates are relevant for predicting how closing schools and nurseries may affect an outbreak of an emerging respiratory-spread pathogen.

Effectiveness of Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccines administered according to various schedules: systematic review and meta-analysis of observational data

Background: Conjugate vaccines against Haemophilus influenzae type b (Hib) are widely used. The full implications of Hib vaccination schedule for vaccine effectiveness (VE) are unclear. Methods: We searched the literature for observational studies reporting the effectiveness of conjugate Hib vaccines administered according to different schedules. We summarized dose-specific VE estimates, where appropriate, using random effects meta-analysis. Results: Thirty-one eligible articles (reporting 30 studies conducted in 17 countries) were identified. Meta-analysis of case-control studies using community controls produced VE estimates against Hib meningitis of 55% (95% confidence interval: 2–80%, based on 3 studies), 96% (86–99%, 3 studies) and 96% (86–99%, 4 studies) after 1, 2 and 3 doses of vaccines other than the polyribosyl ribitol phosphate outer membrane protein vaccine. Estimates were similar using hospital controls. VE against invasive Hib disease in case-control studies was estimated as 59% (30–76%, 3 studies) and 97% (87–99%, 3 studies) for 1 and 3 doses (insufficient data were identified to estimate 2-dose VE). Point estimates from 2 studies suggested VE >90% after 1 dose of the polyribosyl ribitol phosphate outer membrane protein vaccine, but meta-analysis was not possible. Using data from 4 cohort studies, 3-dose VE was estimated as 94% (88–97%). There was some evidence that Hib vaccine was less effective when administered with acellular (rather than whole cell) pertussis vaccine. Weak evidence from 2 studies suggested that a booster confers some additional protection following full primary vaccination and may compensate for an incomplete primary series. Conclusions: Observational data suggest that ≥2 doses of Hib vaccine are required for high effectiveness, but do not strongly favor any particular schedule.

Decreased Time to Treatment Initiation for Multidrug-Resistant Tuberculosis Patients after Use of Xpert MTB/RIF Test, Latvia

This test decreased time to treatment initiation by 66%–84%.

Drug Susceptibility Patterns in MDR-TB Patients: Challenges for Future Regimen Design. A Cross-Sectional Study

Globally, there is substantial concern regarding the challenges of treating complex drug resistance patterns in multidrug resistant tuberculosis cases. Utilising data from three different settings (Estonia, Latvia, Romania) we sought to contrast drug susceptibility profiles for multidrug resistant tuberculosis cases, highlight the difficulties in designing universal regimen, and inform future regimen selection. Demographic and microbiological surveillance data for multidrug resistant tuberculosis cases from 2004–13 were analysed. High levels of additional resistance to currently recommended second line drugs were seen in all settings, with extensive variability between countries. Accurate drug susceptibility testing and drug susceptibility testing data are vital to inform the development of comprehensive, flexible, multidrug resistant tuberculosis guidance.

Ending tuberculosis in risk groups in Europe: challenges from travel and population movement

As many countries in Europe make progress in tuberculosis (TB) control, TB incidence in Europe is diverse; in low-incidence countries (those with an incidence less than 20 per 100,000 [1]) the TB burden is increasingly borne by specific risk groups, such as migrants from highto lower-incidence countries, persons with social risk factors such as homelessness and individuals who have been in contact with a TB patient. Strategies to control TB within these risk groups include screening for active disease and sometimes latent infection [2,3], followed by treatment where appropriate. The effectiveness of screening strategies to identify patients needing treatment varies. For example, the yield of active TB among migrants from highto low-burden countries ranged from 7 to 10,186 per 100,000 people screened, depending on various factors including the TB prevalence in the country of origin [2]. In this World TB Day issue of Eurosurveillance, four papers describe the risks of TB infection and disease in two potentially high-risk groups: migrants [4,5] and airline passengers [6,7].