Charly Favier

Rift Valley fever in West Africa: the role of space in endemicity.

Rift Valley fever is an endemic vector‐borne disease in West Africa, which mainly affects domestic ruminants and occasionally humans. The aetiological mechanisms of its endemicity remain under debate. We used a simple spatially explicit model to assess the possibility of endemicity without wild animals providing a permanent virus reservoir. Our model takes into account the vertical transmission in some mosquito species, the rainfall‐driven emergence of their eggs and local and distant contacts because of herd migration. Endemicity without such a permanent virus reservoir would be impossible in a single site except when there is a strictly periodic rainfall pattern; but it would be possible when there are herd movements and sufficient inter‐site variability in rainfall, which drives mosquito emergence.

Comment on “Intensifying Weathering and Land Use in Iron Age Central Africa”

Bayon et al. (Reports, 9 March 2012, p. 1219) interpreted unusually high aluminum-potassium ratio values in an Atlantic sediment core as indicating anthropogenic deforestation around 2500 years before the present (B.P.). We argue that there is no terrestrial evidence for forest destruction by humans and that the third millennium B.P. rainforest crisis can be clearly attributed mostly to climatic change.

Effects of climate and different management strategies on Aedes aegypti breeding sites: a longitudinal survey in Brasília (DF, Brazil)

Objective  To determine the influence of climate and of environmental vector control with or without insecticide on Aedes aegypti larval indices and pupae density.

Climatic and cultural changes in the west Congo Basin forests over the past 5000 years

Central Africa includes the worlds second largest rainforest block. The ecology of the region remains poorly understood, as does its vegetation and archaeological history. However, over the past 20 years, multidisciplinary scientific programmes have enhanced knowledge of old human presence and palaeoenvironments in the forestry block of Central Africa. This first regional synthesis documents significant cultural changes over the past five millennia and describes how they are linked to climate. It is now well documented that climatic conditions in the African tropics underwent significant changes throughout this period and here we demonstrate that corresponding shifts in human demography have had a strong influence on the forests. The most influential event was the decline of the strong African monsoon in the Late Holocene, resulting in serious disturbance of the forest block around 3500 BP. During the same period, populations from the north settled in the forest zone; they mastered new technologies such as pottery and fabrication of polished stone tools, and seem to have practised agriculture. The opening up of forests from 2500 BP favoured the arrival of metallurgist populations that impacted the forest. During this long period (2500–1400 BP), a remarkable increase of archaeological sites is an indication of a demographic explosion of metallurgist populations. Paradoxically, we have found evidence of pearl millet (Pennisetum glaucum) cultivation in the forest around 2200 BP, implying a more arid context. While Early Iron Age sites (prior to 1400 BP) and recent pre-colonial sites (two to eight centuries BP) are abundant, the period between 1600 and 1000 BP is characterized by a sharp decrease in human settlements, with a population crash between 1300 and 1000 BP over a large part of Central Africa. It is only in the eleventh century that new populations of metallurgists settled into the forest block. In this paper, we analyse the spatial and temporal distribution of 328 archaeological sites that have been reliably radiocarbon dated. The results allow us to piece together changes in the relationships between human populations and the environments in which they lived. On this basis, we discuss interactions between humans, climate and vegetation during the past five millennia and the implications of the absence of people from the landscape over three centuries. We go on to discuss modern vegetation patterns and African forest conservation in the light of these events.

Tracking land-cover changes with sedimentary charcoal in the Afrotropics

Fires have played an important role in creating and maintaining savannas over the centuries and are also one of the main natural disturbances in forests. The functional role of fires in savannas and forests can be investigated through examining sedimentary charcoal in order to reconstruct long-term fire history. However, the relationship between charcoal and vegetation structure in tropical grassy ecosystems remains to be elucidated. Here, we compared recent charcoal records from lake sediments in three tropical ecosystems (forest, savanna, and forest–savanna mosaic) with land cover inferred from remote-sensing images. Charcoal width-to-length (W/L) ratio is a good proxy for changes in fuel type. At one of the lakes, a significant W/L modification from values >0.5 (mainly wood) to <0.5 (~grass) was recorded simultaneously with changes in land cover. Indeed, a significant deforestation was recorded around this lake in the remote-sensing imagery between 1984 and 1994. The results also indicate that a riparian forest around a lake could act as a physical filter for charcoal accumulation; we used the mean charcoal size as a proxy to evaluate this process. Charcoal Accumulation Rates (CHAR), a burned biomass proxy, were combined with W/L ratio and the mean charcoal size to investigate the land-use history of the landscapes surrounding the study sites. This combined approach allowed us to distinguish between episodic slash-and-burn practices in the forest and managed fields or pastures burning frequently.

Dynamics of dengue epidemics in urban contexts

Dengue, similar to other arboviral diseases, exhibits complex spatiotemporal dynamics. Even at town or village level, individual‐based spatially explicit models are required to correctly reproduce epidemic curves. This makes modelling at the regional level (province, country or continent) very difficult and cumbersome. We propose here a first step to build a hierarchized model by constructing a simple analytical expression which reproduces the model output from macroscopic parameters describing each ‘village’. It also turns out to be a good approximation of real urban epidermic outbreaks. Subsequently, a regional model could be built by coupling these equations on a lattice.

Effects of vegetation zones and climatic changes on fire-induced atmospheric carbon emissions: a model based on paleodata

An original method is proposed for estimating past carbon emissions from fires in order to understand long-term changes in the biomass burning that, together with vegetation cover, act on the global carbon cycle and climate. The past carbon release resulting from paleo-fires during the Holocene is examined using a simple linear model between measured carbon emissions from modern fires and sedimentary charcoal records of biomass burning within boreal and cold temperate forests in eastern Canada (Quebec, Ontario). Direct carbon emissions are estimated for each ecozone for the present period and the fire anomaly per kilo annum (ka) v. present day (0 ka) deduced from charcoal series of 46 lakes and peats. Over the postglacial, the Taiga Shield ecozone does not match the pattern of fire history and carbon release of Boreal Shield, Atlantic Maritime, and Mixedwood Plains ecozones. This feature results from different air mass influences and the timing of vegetation dynamics. Our estimations show, first, that the contribution of the Mixedwood Plains and the Atlantic Maritime ecozones on the total carbon emissions by fires remains negligible compared with the Boreal Shield. Second, the Taiga Shield plays a key role by maintaining important carbon emissions, given it is today a lower contributor.

Present-day central African forest is a legacy of the 19th century human history

The populations of light-demanding trees that dominate the canopy of central African forests are now aging. Here, we show that the lack of regeneration of these populations began ca. 165 ya (around 1850) after major anthropogenic disturbances ceased. Since 1885, less itinerancy and disturbance in the forest has occurred because the colonial administrations concentrated people and villages along the primary communication axes. Local populations formerly gardened the forest by creating scattered openings, which were sufficiently large for the establishment of light-demanding trees. Currently, common logging operations do not create suitable openings for the regeneration of these species, whereas deforestation degrades landscapes. Using an interdisciplinary approach, which included paleoecological, archaeological, historical, and dendrological data, we highlight the long-term history of human activities across central African forests and assess the contribution of these activities to present-day forest structure and composition. The conclusions of this sobering analysis present challenges to current silvicultural practices and to those of the future. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.7554/eLife.20343.001

Tree cover in Central Africa: Determinants and sensitivity under contrasted scenarios of global change

Tree cover is a key variable for ecosystem functioning, and is widely used to study tropical ecosystems. But its determinants and their relative importance are still a matter of debate, especially because most regional and global analyses have not considered the influence of agricultural practices. More information is urgently needed regarding how human practices influence vegetation structure. Here we focused in Central Africa, a region still subjected to traditional agricultural practices with a clear vegetation gradient. Using remote sensing data and global databases, we calibrated a Random Forest model to correlatively link tree cover with climatic, edaphic, fire and agricultural practices data. We showed that annual rainfall and accumulated water deficit were the main drivers of the distribution of tree cover and vegetation classes (defined by the modes of tree cover density), but agricultural practices, especially pastoralism, were also important in determining tree cover. We simulated future tree cover with our model using different scenarios of climate and land-use (agriculture and population) changes. Our simulations suggest that tree cover may respond differently regarding the type of scenarios, but land-use change was an important driver of vegetation change even able to counterbalance the effect of climate change in Central Africa.

Viewing tropical forest succession as a three-dimensional dynamical system

As tropical forests are complex systems, they tend to be modelled either roughly via scaling relationships or in a detailed manner as high-dimensional systems with many variables. We propose an approach which lies between the two whereby succession in a tropical forest is viewed as a trajectory in the configuration space of a dynamical system with just three dependent variables, namely, the mean leaf-area index (LAI) and its standard deviation (SD) or coefficient of variation along a transect, and the mean diameter at breast height (DBH) of trees above the 90th percentile of the distribution of tree DBHs near the transect. Four stages in this forest succession are identified: (I) naturally afforesting grassland: the initial stage with scattered trees in grassland; (II) very young forest: mostly covered by trees with a few remaining gaps; (III) young smooth forest: almost complete cover by trees of mostly similar age resulting in a low SD; and (IV) old growth or mature forest: the attracting region in configuration space characterized by fluctuating SD from tree deaths and regrowth. High-resolution LAI measurements and other field data from Khao Yai National Park, Thailand show how the system passes through these stages in configuration space, as do simple considerations and a crude cellular automaton model.