Chauncey Starr

Energy Sources: A Realistic Outlook

Projections to the middle of the next century indicate that unabated historical global energy trends would lead to an annual global energy demand about four times present levels, primarily due to population and economic growth. But extensive global conservation and energy-efficient systems might reduce this value by half. The cumulative effect of the coming half centurys use may strain the worlds low-cost resources, particularly oil. The future fuel mix is further complicated by the environmental thrust to reduce the global use of carbon-based fuels. The interaction of the principal factors influencing future energy resource and technology options are projected.

The electric power research institute.

The Electric Power Research Institute, now 10 years old, was formed by the electric utility industry in response to the threat of federal legislation to create a government agency, funded by a 1 percent tax on utility gross revenue, to undertake research and development. Legislation was proposed in the early 1970s by the Senate Commerce Committee as a result of the massive 1965 Northeast blackout and subsequent public criticism. In March 1972, the Senate was persuaded to give the electric utility industry 1 year to establish an industry-managed and supported substitute to the proposal. This article describes the subsequent history and the program today.

Global energy and electricity futures

A global energy perspective for the middle of the next century is presented. The premises for the projections are described. Included are assumptions as to how much conservation the world might achieve. Projections are then made for the year 2060, assuming that the global fossil fuel mix of coal, oil, and gas will not have changed substantially and that the renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, geothermal, and biomass will have become commercially successful and be utilized at their maximum reasonable contribution. As a result of these projections, at least a doubling of annual carbon emissions globally is predicted. Steps that could be taken to reduce carbon emissions are discussed.<<ETX>>

Hypothetical fears and quantitative risk analysis.

Hypothetical fears are concepts, not quantities. Their conceptual nature makes impractical conventional quantitative risk analyses (QRA) based on benefit/cost/risk, so they become an unmeasured influence in national decision making. The decision process involves two steps, the Analytic Stage (QRA based) and the Priority Stage (resource allocation competition). This article suggests that a quantitative estimate of the social cost of fear reduction to acceptable levels be used as a surrogate QRA input to the Priority Stage.

Economic growth, employment and energy

Abstract The importance of energy in achieving economic growth emerged as an issue in the USA at the end of the 1960s, when readily usable domestic supplies of inexpensive oil and natural gas began to dwindle. Because of this, energy considerations may, for the first time, begin to constrain societys freedom to explore future options for continued economic and social progress. Prudent planning requires that the US energy supply goal should be high enough to avoid energy constraints. This article estimates how much energy will be needed in the year 2000 for the USA to achieve social progress, unconstrained by energy availability. These estimates are based on examination of the interactions between economic growth, employment, and energy use. The USA may choose not to follow the historical trend of economic growth. If so, the authors feel that this should be a decision, reached on the basis of broad national economic policy, and should not be an unintended and unrecognized side-effect of energy policy.

Nuclear Power Safety Goals in Light of the Chernobyl Accident

The recently adopted Nuclear Regulatory Commission safety goals include a proposed plant performance guideline limiting the frequency of large releases of radioactive materials. Analysis here indicates that the proposed plant guideline is potentially far more restrictive than the health objectives and goes well beyond previously established health objectives. The Chernobyl accident, which caused no off-site prompt fatalities, raised concerns that the health objectives do not limit the frequency of accidents sufficiently.

Atmospheric CO2 residence time and the carbon cycle

An atmospheric CO2 residence time is determined from a carbon cycle which assumes that anthropogenic emissions only marginally disturb the preindustrial equilibrium dynamics of source/atmosphere/sink fluxes. This study explores the plausibility of this concept, which results in much shorter atmospheric residence times, 4–5 years, than the magnitude larger outcomes of the usual global carbon cycle models which are adjusted to fit the assumption that anthropogenic emissions are primarily the cause of the observed rise in atmospheric CO2. The continuum concept is consistent with the record of the seasonal photosynthesis swing of atmospheric CO2 which supports a residence time of about 5 years, as also does the bomb C14 decay history. The short residence time suggests that anthropogenic emissions contribute only a fraction of the observed atmospheric rise, and that other sources need be sought.

Risk Analysis and Risk Management

It is interesting to note that humanity’s basic attitudes to risks and their relation to t e quality of life seem to be ageless and unchanging. To quote Horace, the Roman poet of 2000 years ago: “From hour to hour of one of us Takes thought of his peculiar doom; Bold sailors dread the Bosporus Nor heed what other fate may loom…”

Uranium power and horizontal proliferation of nuclear weapons.

Only a few nonnuclear weapons states with uranium-fueled power plants have kept the weapons option open, and none has evidenced activities intended for diverting fissionable material from its civilian system. Analysis of alternative strategies shows that acquisition of nuclear weapons material would probably depend on military production facilities rather than diversion. Horizontal proliferation is primarily a political issue and is related only marginally to uranium power development. Restrictions of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Act on the supply of equipment and fuel by the United States appear to have induced, in some nonnuclear weapons states, the building of small-scale facilities that can be modified for production of weapons material. More attention should be given to the international political, economic, and military factors that persuade such states to abjure nuclear weapons.

Coping with Nuclear Power Risks: A National Strategy

In the energy field, national policy centers about two basic issues that require societal balancing. The first is the determination of the size of the societal investment allocated to providing a future energy supply, as compared with the potential social value of anticipated future energy uses.