Chee-Heong Quah

Which country should be the monetary anchor for East Asia: the US, Japan or China?

In this paper, we apply the optimum currency area (OCA) criteria to assess the suitability of whether the US, Japan or China would best serve as the monetary anchor country for East Asian countries. The OCA criteria used are trade openness, business cycle synchronisation, real exchange rate volatility, inflation convergence and real interest rate cycle synchronisation. The ‘performance’ of these potential anchor countries is compared before and after the Asian financial crisis. The findings suggest an increase in the potential for China as a monetary anchor in the future but the US dollar likely still is the most obvious choice of anchor currency. From an endogenous OCA perspective, the findings also broadly support the existing currency boards in Hong Kong and Macau and the monetary union between Singapore and Brunei.

Is East Asia as prepared as eurozone for monetary union

Based on optimum currency areas (OCA) theory and recent developments in the exchange rate regime literature, this paper evaluates the level of preparedness of East Asia for monetary integration by using the EMU as benchmark. Ten macroeconomic dimensions are explored in which the first five facets are measured relative to a reference country, namely the US, Japan, or China whilst the remaining five facets are measured in absolute terms, over the most recent years. In some ways, the exercise does signify the relative economic dominance of the three largest economies to the region. Results suggest that East Asia might be fairly prepared for a monetary integration especially when the reference country is the US. Another interesting observation is that amongst the eurozone founding members, Ireland has shown the lowest degree of conformity in a number of the criteria.

Can Japan or China replace the US as the monetary anchor for Hong Kong and Macau

This contribution attempts to examine the relative importance of the US, Japan and China to Hong Kong and Macau, two effective dollar-based currency boards today, by evaluating the economic potentiality of Japan or China as an alternative monetary anchor country against the US. The assessment is made according to the criteria prescribed by the optimum currency areas (OCA) theory. In addition to that, a subsidiary analysis is done to evaluate in general the suitability of their fixed exchange rate regimes, regardless of the anchor country. Amidst the existing dollar linked arrangement and the rising dominance of China, significant evidence suggests that Japan, despite its lacklustre domestic conditions, might be at least as good a monetary anchor as the US for Hong Kong. In the meantime, China seems to be a more promising monetary anchor alternative for Macau. The features of Hong Kong and Macau also appear to broadly and endogenously support their fixed exchange rates, but not all the features of Macau, a HK-dollar-based currency board, are consistently symmetrical with those of Hong Kong.

Potential Currency Areas in East Asia using United States, Japan or China as the Monetary Anchor

This paper applies fuzzy clustering techniques to developed and emerging economies in East Asia, in order to arrive at an identification of potential subgroups of economies for monetary union. The statistical criteria employed is the one suggested by the Optimal Currency Areas theory, and the period examined includes the recent global crisis. Three alternative monetary anchor countries are proposed, namely the United States, Japan and China, and hence, to an extent, the analysis does indicate the relative importance of the three world’s largest economies to East Asia. Due to the endogeneity of the convergence criteria in the eurozone, founding member states of EMU are used as a point of reference for East Asia to indicate the level of preparedness for monetary union in this region. Findings indicate that Singapore and Hong Kong are relatively prepared for integration. In addition, results do also signify the dominance of Japan despite the prevalence of the dollar standard in the region.

Un diagnóstico de Grecia

Este trabajo explora el nivel de competitividad internacional de Grecia e investiga el grado de correspondencia entre las condiciones en este pais y las que dictan la teoria de las zonas monetarias optimas (ZMO). Dado que Grecia comparte ahora la misma moneda con Alemania, el pais central de facto en la eurozona, los hallazgos indican que los problemas en el pais griego podrian haberse exacerbado por la perdida de competitividad mercantil en relacion con Alemania o la ausencia de convergencia con la economia central en las diferentes areas asociadas a las zmo (integracion economica, nivel del ingreso, etc.).

A Diagnostic on the West African Monetary Union

Deploying the classical optimum currency areas (OCA) theory and recent developments in the monetary literature, this paper evaluates the appropriateness of West African Monetary Union (WAEMU) as a monetary zone. Nine macroeconomic dimensions are investigated under which the first four items are quantified against a reference economy, namely the US, the eurozone, or China, whilst the rest are measured in absolute terms, for time periods before and after the 2008-09 global financial crisis. Analysis could signify the relative dominance of the three world’s largest economies to the West African region. In addition to inherent asymmetries across the union, findings suggest the emerging Chinese yuan as an alternative to the euro as the monetary anchor.

Is Europe Growing Together or Growing Apart

While it is painfully clear that the ’ever closer’ monetary and financial union in the EU has run into serious trouble there has been very little study of the degree to which the countries have become similar or different in their economic growth dynamics. This paper therefore goes beyond the traditional convergence literature to look at their dynamic convergence and explore the path of their changing similarity in the frequency domain. The results show that while a core group of countries may be developing together, there appears to be at least seven identifiable groups of countries with different growth dynamics. Greece appears to be in a class on its own. Business cycles are important but longer-term trends and higher frequency fluctuations all have a role to play in facilitating adjustment. These results provide awkward implications for policy, particularly for those who thought that simply having a union would draw countries closer together (endogenous OCA criteria).

The Case for Monetary Union in East Asia: From Theory to Empirics

Among others, this paper presents the case for fixed exchange rates and monetary union in East Asia, the underlying motivation behind the rising interest on optimum currency areas (OCAs) in the Asian context. The paper also explicitly proposes the dollar as the monetary anchor. Twenty empirical papers in 1994–2009 are reviewed and the five original members of ASEAN have been commonly indicated to be sufficiently homogenous for monetary unification. Some other common threads can be also observed. First, recent considerations could have played a more important role than the traditional theory in the selection of country samples for analysis. Second,unlike the early intellectual work which had been molded by the debate on adjustment mechanisms, current empirical literature has been driven largely by the enthusiasm to identify homogenous economies. Third, there is a reason to believe that little has been done in light of the endogeneity view of OCA criteria. Finally, an explicit monetary anchor, particularly the dollar anchor, has scarcely been set a priority in empirical analyses.

Exchange Rate Fixation between US, China, Japan and Eurozone

This article assesses the feasibility of exchange rate fixation among the largest economies today, namely, the US, Japan, China and Germany/Eurozone, by reviewing variables according to the optimum currency areas framework. The hypothesis is that with greater interconnectedness in general through time there should be greater convergence in the monetary integration dimensions. The period examined spans from 1980 to 2012, an over-30-year period, encompassing the recent episode of global contraction. While the findings are mixed, economically they seem to suggest a general trend towards greater compatibility or at least one which is not in serious contradiction to exchange rate fixity, particularly for the US and Eurozone. JEL Classification: E62, F31, F32, F41, F42, O53

Has Eurozone Converged toward Germany or United States? A View from Optimum Currency Areas Framework

This study inspects if there is greater convergence with Germany amongst the eurozone founding members and if their relations with the hegemonic economy have been more symmetrical after euroization. The dimensions explored are those inspired by the optimum currency areas (OCA) framework. To some extent, the findings could signify if real convergence has been significantly endogenous. At the same time, to assess the relative dominance of Germany, the features against Germany are compared to those against US. In addition, the paper also appraises some aspects of economic performance to check whether economic conditions across the states have improved and converged after unification. In some convergence aspects, findings suggest remarkable convergence with Germany and across the states but also relative convergence with US. On economic performance, results indicate substantial improvements in inflation and unemployment. Amongst the founding states, Ireland has idiosyncratically shown serious divergences in a number of the convergence and performance measures.