Chen-yuan Tung

The wisdom of crowds in action: Forecasting epidemic diseases with a web-based prediction market system

BACKGROUND The quest for an effective system capable of monitoring and predicting the trends of epidemic diseases is a critical issue for communities worldwide. With the prevalence of Internet access, more and more researchers today are using data from both search engines and social media to improve the prediction accuracy. In particular, a prediction market system (PMS) exploits the wisdom of crowds on the Internet to effectively accomplish relatively high accuracy. OBJECTIVE This study presents the architecture of a PMS and demonstrates the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules. The system was implemented to predict infectious diseases in Taiwan with the wisdom of crowds in order to improve the accuracy of epidemic forecasting. METHODS The PMS architecture contains three design components: database clusters, market engine, and Web applications. The system accumulated knowledge from 126 health professionals for 31 weeks to predict five disease indicators: the confirmed cases of dengue fever, the confirmed cases of severe and complicated influenza, the rate of enterovirus infections, the rate of influenza-like illnesses, and the confirmed cases of severe and complicated enterovirus infection. RESULTS Based on the winning ratio, the PMS predicts the trends of three out of five disease indicators more accurately than does the existing system that uses the five-year average values of historical data for the same weeks. In addition, the PMS with the matching mechanism of logarithmic market scoring rules is easy to understand for health professionals and applicable to predict all the five disease indicators. CONCLUSIONS The PMS architecture of this study affords organizations and individuals to implement it for various purposes in our society. The system can continuously update the data and improve prediction accuracy in monitoring and forecasting the trends of epidemic diseases. Future researchers could replicate and apply the PMS demonstrated in this study to more infectious diseases and wider geographical areas, especially the under-developed countries across Asia and Africa.

Renminbi Internationalization： Progress, Prospect and Comparison

Using principal component analyses, this paper constructs two internationalization indices for the renminbi (RMB) and 32 other major currencies. We find that the RMBs currency internationalization degree index (CIDI) is still low, and far behind the 4 most important international currencies. In 2009, it was ranked 18th among all important international currencies. However, in terms of the currency internationalization prospect index (CIPI), the RMB has remained the worlds fifth highest since 2006. Although it is still far behind the US dollar and the euro, surpassing the ranking of the yen and the pound is possible in the near future. The dramatic difference in the ranking between the CIDI and the CIPI is a result of Chinas tight capital account control, the usage continuity of international currency due to network externalities, and the narrow foreign exchange and imperfect financial markets. Hence, to a large degree, the RMBs potential as an international currency depends on Chinas capital account liberalization.

Development of a Cross-Strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement

President Ma Ying-Jeous strategy to engage Taiwan in regional market integration calls for the use of the cross-strait Economic Cooperation Framework Agreement (ECFA) with China as a pathway to join the East Asian economic integration. This article reviews the ECFA and discusses its potential outlook. Some enhancements are proposed that may help Taiwan strategize its foreign negotiations.

Made by Taiwan but made in mainland China: the case of the IT Industry

Part 1: Export Competitiveness 1. Chinas Foreign Trade and Export Boom: 1978-2004 2. The Pearl Rive Delta - A World Workshop 3. Developing Global Competitiveness: The Case of Haier Group 4. Cheap Labor and Chinas Export Capacity Part 2: FDI, Trade, and Industrial Development 5. Made by Taiwan but Made in Mainland China: The Case of IT Industry 6. Japanese FDI in China: Trend, Structure, and Exchange Rates 7. Foreign Competition and Productivity of Chinese Firms 8. The Role of FDI in Chinas Export Performance Part 3: WTO, Exchange Rates, and Labor Markets 9. Chinas Increasing Openness: Threat or Opportunity?10 .Chinas Position and Role in WTO 11. Policy Traps and the Linkage between Chinas Financial and Foreign Exchange Systems 12. FDI and Labor Reforms in Guangdong Province Part 4: Concluding Remarks 13. Is China the World Factory?

The Impact on Taiwan

This forward-looking volume offers insights into the globalization of the Chinese economy and its accession to the WTO. The contributors provide updated accounts of recent developments in the Chinese economy and examines the implications of Chinas accession for the rest of the world.

Trilateral Economic Relations among Taiwan, China, and the United States

ince the mid1980s, Taiwan has engaged in large-scale investment in response ince to a strong New Taiwan dollar, the high cost of labor and land, environmental controversies, and growing trade friction with the United States. The huge trade deficit between Taiwan and the United States made the U.S. government require Taiwans authorities to appreciate the exchange rate of the New Taiwan dollar from 39.85 per U.S. dollar in 1985 to 28.55 per U.S. dollar by the end of 1987, an increase of almost 40 percent in just two years. From 1986 to 1995, the unit labor cost increased two to three times in most labor-intensive industries such