Cheng-Min Feng

A hybrid fuzzy integral decision-making model for locating manufacturing centers in China: A case study

This study presents a hybrid fuzzy integral decision-making model that integrates factor analysis, interpretive structural modeling, Markov chain, fuzzy integral and the simple additive weighted method for selecting locations of high-tech manufacturing centers in China. The analytical results of this case study demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed model for solving fuzzy multiple attribute decision-making problems, especially when criteria are interdependent. Further, the empirical study brings out some properties that are crucial for high-tech manufacturing centers to invest in China.

Optimal slot allocation with empty container reposition problem for Asia ocean carriers

This paper utilises revenue management modelling to make an optimal slot allocation serving a specific shipping service route for ocean carriers. The model, incorporating the expected cost of empty container reposition, is formulated through mathematical programming to maximise operational profit of ocean carriers, subject to some constraints of vessel capacity, container demand and empty container supply. Computational results not only present port-to-port slot allocation to be a guideline to implement space control but also provide a criterion to review the status of strategic alliance among ocean carriers.

Risk measurement and risk identification for BOT projects: A multi-attribute utility approach

This paper aims to identify and assess the potential risks faced by private sectors in holding BOT projects through the risk assessment model developed herein. The multi-attribute utility function and aggregation utility are established using the multi-attribute utility theory to evaluate the risk state of each uncertainty, and in turn to determine whether such an uncertainty is a risk factor or not from the negotiator groups viewpoint. This model shows that the uncertainty is regarded as a risk factor only when the aggregation utility value is less than the average aggregation utility value when the outcome, attribute, and states of a factor as well as its occurrence probability are all independent. A numerical example is also utilized to demonstrate the application of the developed risk assessment model. Results of the numerical example reveal that the concession period of a BOT project is the primary risk factor whereas the foreign exchange ratio is the secondary risk factor. Accordingly, the concession period dominates the negotiation results of BOT projects.

A royalty negotiation model for BOT (build-operate-transfer) projects: The operational revenue-based model

Abstract Whilst few studies have explored royalty negotiations for build, operate and transfer (BOT) projects, some works have proposed numerous royalty formulas to evaluate royalty amounts or franchise fees for a BOT project. Despite this, the royalty negotiation process is one of the many critical negotiation items of a concession contract. This study not only developed a royalty negotiation model for BOT projects, but also developed the iterative algorithm for the BLP problem for the government and the private sector. In addition, the factors incorporated into the iterative algorithm for the BLP problem include the concession rate, learning rate, and the time value discount rate for both parties. Moreover, this paper conducted a case study of the Taipei Port Container Logistic BOT Project using LINGO and MATLAB programming. The results show that the two parties involved completed royalty negotiation at the sixth negotiation. The objective function value for lower-level programming was 1.062 and the government finance recovery rate for higher-level programming was 11.832. The findings show that the government can receive the royalty, which is calculated by using 0.012% of the operating revenue of this BOT project, from the concessionaire. Therefore, the royalty negotiation model based on the operating revenue developed herein; could be employed to explain the negotiation behavior.

Assessing the Risks of Airport Airside through the Fuzzy Logic-Based Failure Modes, Effect, and Criticality Analysis

To identify risk items, measure risk value objectively, and establish risk assessment matrix of airports is the major task of airport safety. This paper first extracts 14 risk items of airports from the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) aviation accidents database and then applies Failure Modes, Effect and Criticality Analysis (FMECA) to define the decision factors of probability, severity and detectability of airport risks. This paper also designs a questionnaire and applies fuzzy logic to discover the importance of decision factors, to find out the threshold value of Risk Assessment Matrix, and to prioritize the airport risks. This paper uses Taiwan Taoyuan International Airport as a case study to demonstrate the modeling process and analyze the results.

Road network vulnerability assessment based on fragile factor interdependencies in spatial-functional perspectives

Road networks are instrumental in resource allocation and preevacuation, and profoundly affect disaster response and recovery, particularly emergent-disaster logistics and island rescues. Disruptions to road networks impair daily operations, irrespective of whether they are damaged by external forces or failures in interacting elements. However, functional interdependency is absent from transportation vulnerability assessments. This study thus constructed a framework to assess the interdependent vulnerability of road network failures. Based on eleven fragile factors developed in the literature and an empirical case study in the Taipei metropolitan area, road network vulnerability is determined by fuzzy cognitive maps and geographic information systems for functional and spatial interactions, respectively. The analytical results indicate that road network vulnerability is underestimated if the interdependency is neglected. Delay time on the shortest substitution, level of service on adjacent links, and inaccessibility to hospital emergency centers significantly affect vulnerability. Whereas certain socioeconomic resilience is performed in the short term, spatial–functional interdependency dilutes those effects in the long term. The framework developed facilitates decision makers in understanding interdependent vulnerabilities and adopting appropriate strategies to improve vulnerability.

Using bi-level programming to analyze the royalty for private–public partnership projects: the operational quantity-based model

Abstract This paper develops a royalty negotiation model based on the operating quantity of Build, Operate, and Transfer (BOT) projects for both government and the private sector using a bi-level programming (BLP) approach. The royalty negotiation is one of many critical negotiation items of a concession contract. This study develops a royalty negotiation model to simulate the negotiation behavior of two parties, and derives the heuristic algorithm for the BLP problem. A number of factors are incorporated into this algorithm including the concession rate, the time value discount rate, the learning rate, and the number of negotiations. The paper includes a case study of the Taipei Port Container Logistic BOT Project. The results show that the two parties involved completed royalty negotiation at the sixth negotiation stage. The findings show that the government can receive a royalty from the concessionaire, calculated at 0.00386% of the operating quantity of this BOT project. Therefore, the royalty negotiation model developed here could be employed to explain negotiation behavior.

Public bike system pricing and usage in Taipei

ABSTRACT Although widely implemented, public bike systems (PBSs) are facing a conflict between system usage and sustainable financing. The relationships between PBS pricing and usage must be clarified to formulate solutions for the conflict. This research used the Taipei PBS, YouBike, as a case study. A stated preference survey was conducted on metro passengers, and a binary logit model was applied to analyze the pricing effects of PBS on passengers’ choice of using PBS as their transfer mode. A latent class model was also used to identify segment-specific preferences. The empirical data show that whether commuters used PBS as a transfer mode was highly dependent on the basic fee and basic period, but not on the variable fee after the basic period; the basic fee mattered to a commuters choice more than the basic period; irregular PBS users were more sensitive to the basic fee than regular PBS users; and regular PBS users were more sensitive to the basic period than irregular PBS users. The current results broaden the understanding of how PBS pricing affects its usage and illustrate a pricing policy analysis for YouBike that considers sustainable financing and system usage.

Effects of price promotions on potential consumers of high-speed rail

Effects of price promotions for high-speed rail (HSR) on the choice behaviours of potential consumers are analysed for public transit marketing purposes. A questionnaire survey, with 300 valid samples collected from private vehicle drivers with long-distance trips through freeways, is conducted. Factor analysis is employed to determine the constructs of service quality, while a discrete choice model considering individual heterogeneity, namely a mixed logit model, with stated preference is utilised to explore the diversion of passengers from private vehicle drivers due to price promotions. Analytical results reveal that service qualities, socio-economic characteristics and price promotions significantly affect choice behaviours. Finally, some strategies are developed from these analytical results to help a HSR operator increase its market share.

A fuzzy cognitive map modeling to explore the operation dynamics of third-party logistics providers

In Taiwan, e-tailers have formed partnerships with third-party logistics providers (3PLs) and convenience stores so that the service of shopping on-line in an electronic store and picking up goods at a convenience store could be quite common and popular these days. This study observes that the e-tailers have more bargaining power at its disposal comparing to its counterparts, 3PLs, in the sense of partnership. The study applies the methodology of “Fuzzy cognitive maps” to model and explore the operation dynamics for 3PLs. The results show that the improvement on “Relationship with e-tailers” and “Logistics performance” could significantly facilitate 3PLs in expanding the market shares, total profits and somewhat mitigating the problems 3PLs would have encountered.