Cheng-Shang Lee

Initial Maintenance of Tropical Cyclone Size in the Western North Pacific

A tropical cyclone (TC) size parameter, which is defined here as the radius of 15 m s 21 near-surface wind speed (R15), is calculated for 145 TCs in the western North Pacific during 2000‐05 based on QuikSCAT oceanic winds. For the 73 TCs that intensified to typhoon intensity during their lifetimes, the 33% and 67% respective percentiles of R15 at tropical storm intensity and at typhoon intensity are used to categorize small, medium, and large TCs. Whereas many of the small TCs form from an easterly wave synoptic pattern, the monsoon-related formation patterns are favorable for forming medium to large TCs. Most of these 73 TCs stay in the same size category during intensification, which implies specific physical mechanisms for maintaining TC size in the basin. The 18 persistently large TCs from the tropical storm to the typhoon stage mostly havenorthwestward or north-northwestward tracks, while the 16 persistently small TCs either move westward‐ northwestward in lower latitudes or develop at higher latitudes with various track types. For the large TCs, strong low-level southwesterly winds exist in the outer core region south of the TC center throughout the intensification period. The small TCs are more influenced by the subtropical high during intensification. The conclusion is that it is the low-level environment that determines the difference between large and small size storms during the early intensification period in the western North Pacific.

Application of WRF 3DVAR to Operational Typhoon Prediction in Taiwan: Impact of Outer Loop and Partial Cycling Approaches

AbstractIn this paper, the impact of outer loop and partial cycling with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model’s (WRF) three-dimensional variational data assimilation system (3DVAR) is evaluated by analyzing 78 forecasts for three typhoons during 2008 for which Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau (CWB) issued typhoon warnings, including Sinlaku, Hagupit, and Jangmi. The use of both the outer loop and the partial cycling approaches in WRF 3DVAR are found to reduce typhoon track forecast errors by more than 30%, averaged over a 72-h period. The improvement due to the outer loop approach, which can be more than 42%, was particularly significant in the early phase of the forecast. The use of the outer loop allows more observations to be assimilated and produces more accurate analyses. The assimilation of additional nonlinear GPS radio occultation (RO) observations over the western North Pacific Ocean, where traditional observational data are lacking, is particularly useful. With the lack of observations over...

Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific. Part I: Structural Evolution of Cloud Clusters

Abstract This paper is the first of a two-part series summarizing recent attempts to advance omit understanding of the physical processes associated with tropical cyclone formation in the western North Pacific. A combination of rawinsonde composite and individual case analyses are shown for both pre-cyclone tropical cloud clusters (genesis) and those-prominent cloud cluster that do not develop into tropical cyclones (nongenesis). This research is an extension of previous works at Colorado State University by McBride, Zehr, and Love. The first part of the study concerns the structural evolution of the genesis cloud clusters and nongenesis cloud clusters. Results show that nongenesis cloud clusters have about the same mean vertical motion and cumulus activity as the genesis cloud clusters. However, genesis cloud clusters are found to have much stronger middle-to low-level cyclonic circulation extending over a radius 2°–8° outward from the center. The buildup of this strong precyclogenesis circulation is ass...

Tropical Cyclone Formations in the South China Sea Associated with the Mei-Yu Front

Abstract This study examines the 119 tropical cyclone (TC) formations in the South China Sea (SCS) during 1972–2002, and in particular the 20 in May and June. Eleven of these storms are associated with the weak baroclinic environment of a mei-yu front, while the remaining nine are nonfrontal. Seven of the 11 initial disturbances originated over land and have a highly similar evolution. Comparison of the frontal and nonfrontal formation shows that a nonfrontal formation usually occurs at a lower latitude, is more barotropic, develops faster, and possibly intensifies into a stronger TC. Six nonformation cases in the SCS are also identified that have similar low-level disturbances near the western end of a mei-yu front but did not develop further. In the nonformation cases, both the northeasterlies north of the front and the monsoonal southwesterlies are intermittent and weaker in magnitude so that the vorticity in the northern SCS does not spin up to tropical depression intensity. Because of the influence o...

The Secondary Low and Heavy Rainfall Associated with Typhoon Mindulle (2004)

Abstract This paper presents an observational and numerical study of Typhoon Mindulle (2004) as it affected Taiwan. Mindulle made landfall on the east coast of Taiwan at 1500 UTC 1 July 2004, and after 13 h, it exited Taiwan from the north coast. Severe rainfall (with a maximum amount of 787 mm) occurred over central-southwestern Taiwan on 2 July 2004. During the landfall of Mindulle’s main circulation, a secondary low formed over the Taiwan Strait. However, the secondary low, after it developed significantly (vorticity exceeded 5 × 10−4 s−1 over a 30-km radius), did not replace the original center as was observed in many other storms. Instead, it moved inland and dissipated after the original center redeveloped near the north coast of Taiwan. In this study, the evolution of the secondary low, the redevelopment of the primary center, and the processes leading to the severe rainfall were examined. Results showed that the processes leading to the formation and the development of the secondary low were simil...

Mesoscale features associated with tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific

Abstract The mesoscale features of 124 tropical cyclone formations in the western North Pacific Ocean during 1999–2004 are investigated through large-scale analyses, satellite infrared brightness temperature (TB), and Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic wind data. Based on low-level wind flow and surge direction, the formation cases are classified into six synoptic patterns: easterly wave (EW), northeasterly flow (NE), coexistence of northeasterly and southwesterly flow (NE–SW), southwesterly flow (SW), monsoon confluence (MC), and monsoon shear (MS). Then the general convection characteristics and mesoscale convective system (MCS) activities associated with these formation cases are studied under this classification scheme. Convection processes in the EW cases are distinguished from the monsoon-related formations in that the convection is less deep and closer to the formation center. Five characteristic temporal evolutions of the deep convection are identified: (i) single convection event, (ii) two co...

The Eyewall-Penetration Reconnaissance Observation of Typhoon Longwang (2005) with Unmanned Aerial Vehicle, Aerosonde

Abstract In this paper, a successful eye-penetration reconnaissance flight by an unmanned aerial vehicle, Aerosonde, into Typhoon Longwang (2005) and the preliminary analyses of the collected data are presented. The 10-h flight is diagnosed through four flight legs. The wind field measured along flight leg 1 provides the tangential and radial wind profiles from the outer perimeter into the eye of the typhoon at the 700-hPa layer. A vertical sounding was taken in the eye along flight leg 2 and the derived surface pressure in the eyewall is close to the estimates made by the local weather agencies. Along flight leg 3, the strongest winds during the whole flight mission were measured. These in situ wind measurements by Aerosonde are consistent with the winds observed by the Hua-lien Doppler weather radar. The maximum 10-min (1 min) wind along flight leg 3 when Aerosonde was flying around the eyewall region is 58.6 m s−1 (62 m s−1). The maximum sustained surface wind derived from this maximum wind speed is al...

Observational Analysis of Tropical Cyclogenesis in the Western North Pacific. Part II: Budget Analysis

Abstract This is the second of a two-part study which uses a combination of composite rawinsonde and individual FGGE case analyses to identify the important physical processes associated with tropical cyclone formation. Part I examined the structural evolution and circulation patterns for genesis and nongenesis cloud clusters in the western North Pacific. This paper analyzes moisture, energy and angular (tangential) momentum budgets for both types of cloud clusters. Results show that both the genesis and nongenesis cloud clusters have similar cumulus activity and similar moisture and energy budgets. An enhanced surface energy flux is found only after the formation of a tropical cyclone with a well-defined center. The results of Part I showed that genesis cloud clusters have comparatively strong 2°–8° radius middle- to low-level cyclonic circulations in comparison with nondeveloping cloud clusters. Transports by the mean transverse circulation are not efficient to produce the observed buildup of the tangen...

Coupling typhoon rainfall forecasting with overland-flow modeling for early warning of inundation

Taiwan suffers from an average of three or four typhoons annually, and the inundation caused by the heavy precipitation that is associated with typhoons frequently occurs in lowlands and floodplains. Potential inundation maps have been widely used as references to set up non-structural strategies for mitigating flood hazards. However, spatiotemporal rainfall distributions must be addressed to improve the accuracy of inundation forecasting for emergency response operations. This study presents a system for 24-h-ahead early warning of inundation, by coupling the forecasting of typhoon rainfall with the modeling of overland flow. A typhoon rainfall climatology model (TRCM) is introduced to forecast dynamically the spatiotemporal rainfall distribution based on typhoon tracks. The systematic scheme for early warning of inundation based on the spatiotemporal downscaling of rainfall and 2D overland-flow modeling yields not only the extent of inundation, but also the time to maximum inundation depth. The scheme is superior to traditional early warning method referring to the maximum extent and depth of inundation determined from conditional uniform rainfall. Analytical results show that coupling TRCM with an overland-flow model yields satisfactory inundation hydrographs for warning of the extent and peak time of inundation. This study also shows that the accuracy of forecasting spatiotemporal rainfall patterns determines the performance of inundation forecasting, which is critical to emergency response operations.

Some Implications of Core Regime Wind Structures in Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclones

Abstract In this study, a tropical cyclone (TC) is considered to be compact if 1) the radius of maximum wind or the maximum tangential wind is smaller than what would be expected for an average tropical cyclone of the same intensity or the same radius of maximum wind, and 2) the decrease of tangential wind outside the radius of maximum wind is greater than that of an average TC. A structure parameter S is defined to provide a quantitative measure of the compactness of tropical cyclones. Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) oceanic winds are used to calculate S for 171 tropical cyclones during 2000–07. The S parameters are then used to classify all of the cases as either compact or incompact according to the 33% and 67% percentiles. It is found that the early intensification stage is favorable for the occurrence of compact tropical cyclones, which also have a higher percentage of rapid intensification than incompact cases. Composite infrared brightness temperature shows that compact tropical cyclones have highly...