Cheryl J. Briggs

Dynamics of an emerging disease drive large-scale amphibian population extinctions

Epidemiological theory generally suggests that pathogens will not cause host extinctions because the pathogen should fade out when the host population is driven below some threshold density. An emerging infectious disease, chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) is directly linked to the recent extinction or serious decline of hundreds of amphibian species. Despite continued spread of this pathogen into uninfected areas, the dynamics of the host–pathogen interaction remain unknown. We use fine-scale spatiotemporal data to describe (i) the invasion and spread of Bd through three lake basins, each containing multiple populations of the mountain yellow-legged frog, and (ii) the accompanying host–pathogen dynamics. Despite intensive sampling, Bd was not detected on frogs in study basins until just before epidemics began. Following Bd arrival in a basin, the disease spread to neighboring populations at ≈700 m/yr in a wave-like pattern until all populations were infected. Within a population, infection prevalence rapidly reached 100% and infection intensity on individual frogs increased in parallel. Frog mass mortality began only when infection intensity reached a critical threshold and repeatedly led to extinction of populations. Our results indicate that the high growth rate and virulence of Bd allow the near-simultaneous infection and buildup of high infection intensities in all host individuals; subsequent host population crashes therefore occur before Bd is limited by density-dependent factors. Preventing infection intensities in host populations from reaching this threshold could provide an effective strategy to avoid the extinction of susceptible amphibian species in the wild.

WHY DO POPULATIONS CYCLE? A SYNTHESIS OF STATISTICAL AND MECHANISTIC MODELING APPROACHES

Population cycles have long fascinated ecologists. Even in the most-studied populations, however, scientists continue to dispute the relative importance of various potential causes of the cycles. Over the past three decades, theoretical ecologists have cataloged a large number of mechanisms that are capable of generating cycles in population models. At the same time, statisticians have developed new techniques both for characterizing time series and for fitting population models to time-series data. Both disciplines are now sufficiently advanced that great gains in understanding can be made by synthesizing these complementary, and heretofore mostly independent, quantitative approaches. In this paper we demonstrate how to apply this synthesis to the problem of population cycles, using both long-term population time series and the often-rich observational and experimental data on the ecology of the species in question. We quantify hypotheses by writing mathematical models that embody the interactions and forces that might cause cycles. Some hypotheses can be rejected out of hand, as being unable to generate even qualitatively appropriate dynamics. We finish quantifying the remaining hypotheses by estimating parameters, both from independent experiments and from fitting the models to the time-series data using modern statistical techniques. Finally, we compare simulated time series generated by the models to the observed time series, using a variety of statistical descriptors, which we refer to collectively as “probes.” The model most similar to the data, as measured by these probes, is considered to be the most likely candidate to represent the mechanism underlying the population cycles. We illustrate this approach by analyzing one of Nicholson’s blowfly populations, in which we know the “true” governing mechanism. Our analysis, which uses only a subset of the information available about the population, uncovers the correct answer, suggesting that this synthetic approach might be successfully applied to field populations as well.

The ecology and impact of chytridiomycosis: an emerging disease of amphibians

Emerging infectious diseases are increasingly recognized as key threats to wildlife. Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), the causative agent of chytridiomycosis, has been implicated in widespread amphibian declines and is currently the largest infectious disease threat to biodiversity. Here, we review the causes of Bd emergence, its impact on amphibian populations and the ecology of Bd transmission. We describe studies to answer outstanding issues, including the origin of the pathogen, the effect of Bd relative to other causes of population declines, the modes of Bd dispersal, and factors influencing the intensity of its transmission. Chytridiomycosis is an archetypal emerging disease, with a broad host range and significant impacts on host populations and, as such, poses a crucial challenge for wildlife managers and an urgent conservation concern.

Enzootic and epizootic dynamics of the chytrid fungal pathogen of amphibians

Chytridiomycosis, the disease caused by the chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), has contributed to amphibian population declines and extinctions worldwide. The impact of this pathogen, however, varies markedly among amphibian species and populations. Following invasion into some areas of Californias Sierra Nevada, Bd leads to rapid declines and local extinctions of frog populations (Rana muscosa, R. sierrae). In other areas, infected populations of the same frog species have declined but persisted at low host densities for many years. We present results of a 5-year study showing that infected adult frogs in persistent populations have low fungal loads, are surviving between years, and frequently lose and regain the infection. Here we put forward the hypothesis that fungal load dynamics can explain the different population-level outcomes of Bd observed in different areas of the Sierra Nevada and possibly throughout the world. We develop a model that incorporates the biological details of the Bd-host interaction. Importantly, model results suggest that host persistence versus extinction does not require differences in host susceptibility, pathogen virulence, or environmental conditions, and may be just epidemic and endemic population dynamics of the same host–pathogen system. The different disease outcomes seen in natural populations may result solely from density-dependent host–pathogen dynamics. The model also shows that persistence of Bd is enhanced by the long-lived tadpole stage that characterize these two frog species, and by nonhost Bd reservoirs.

EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE AS A PROXIMATE CAUSE OF AMPHIBIAN MASS MORTALITY

A newly discovered infectious disease of amphibians, chytridiomycosis, caused by the fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is implicated in population declines and possible extinctions throughout the world. The purpose of our study was to examine the effects of B. dendrobatidis on the mountain yellow-legged frog (Rana muscosa) in the Sierra Nevada of California (USA). We (1) quantified the prevalence and incidence of B. dendrobatidis through repeat surveys of several hundred R. muscosa populations in the southern Sierra Nevada; (2) described the population-level effects of B. dendrobatidis on R. muscosa population abundance; and (3) compared the mortality rates of infected and uninfected R. muscosa individuals from pre- through post-metamorphosis using both laboratory and field experiments. Mouthpart inspections conducted in 144 and 132 R. muscosa populations in 2003 and 2004, respectively, indicated that 19% of R. muscosa populations in both years showed indications of chytridiomycosis. Sixteen percent of populations that were uninfected in 2003 became infected by 2004. Rana muscosa population sizes were reduced by an average of 88% following B. dendrobatidis outbreaks at six sites, but at seven B. dendrobatidis-negative sites, R. muscosa population sizes increased by an average of 45% over the same time period. In the laboratory, all infected R. muscosa developed fatal chytridiomycosis after metamorphosis, while all uninfected individuals remained healthy. In the field experiment in which R. muscosa tadpoles were caged at infected and uninfected sites, 96% of the individuals that metamorphosed at infected sites died vs. 5% at the uninfected sites. These studies indicate that chytridiomycosis causes high mortality in post-metamorphic R. muscosa, that this emerging disease is the proximate cause of numerous observed R. muscosa population declines, and that the disease threatens this species with extirpation at numerous sites in Californias Sierra Nevada.

Habitat structure and population persistence in an experimental community.

Understanding spatial population dynamics is fundamental for many questions in ecology and conservation. Many theoretical mechanisms have been proposed whereby spatial structure can promote population persistence, in particular for exploiter–victim systems (host–parasite/pathogen, predator–prey) whose interactions are inherently oscillatory and therefore prone to extinction of local populations. Experiments have confirmed that spatial structure can extend persistence, but it has rarely been possible to identify the specific mechanisms involved. Here we use a model-based approach to identify the effects of spatial population processes in experimental systems of bean plants (Phaseolus lunatus), herbivorous mites (Tetranychus urticae) and predatory mites (Phytoseiulus persimilis). On isolated plants, and in a spatially undivided experimental system of 90 plants, prey and predator populations collapsed; however, introducing habitat structure allowed long-term persistence. Using mechanistic models, we determine that spatial population structure did not contribute to persistence, and spatially explicit models are not needed. Rather, habitat structure reduced the success of predators at locating prey outbreaks, allowing between-plant asynchrony of local population cycles due to random colonization events.

LIFE-HISTORY TRADE-OFFS INFLUENCE DISEASE IN CHANGING CLIMATES: STRATEGIES OF AN AMPHIBIAN PATHOGEN

Life-history trade-offs allow many animals to maintain reproductive fitness across a range of climatic conditions. When used by parasites and pathogens, these strategies may influence patterns of disease in changing climates. The chytrid fungus, Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis, is linked to global declines of amphibian populations. Short-term growth in culture is maximal at 17 degrees-25 degrees C. This has been used in an argument that global warming, which increases the time that amphibians spend at these temperatures in cloud-covered montane environments, has led to extinctions. Here we show that the amphibian chytrid responds to decreasing temperatures with trade-offs that increase fecundity as maturation rate slows and increase infectivity as growth decreases. At 17 degrees-25 degrees C, infectious zoospores encyst (settle and develop a cell wall) and develop into the zoospore-producing stage (zoosporangium) faster, while at 7 degrees-10 degrees C, greater numbers of zoospores are produced per zoosporangium; these remain infectious for a longer period of time. We modeled the population growth of B. dendrobatidis through time at various temperatures using delayed differential equations and observational data for four parameters: developmental rate of thalli, fecundity, rate of zoospore encystment, and rate of zoospore survival. From the models, it is clear that life-history trade-offs allow B. dendrobatidis to maintain a relatively high long-term growth rate at low temperatures, so that it maintains high fitness across a range of temperatures. When a seven-day cold shock is simulated, the outcome is intermediate between the two constant temperature regimes, and in culture, a sudden drop in temperature induces zoospore release. These trade-offs can be ecologically important for a variety of organisms with complex life histories, including pathogenic microorganisms. The effect of temperature on amphibian mortality will depend on the interaction between fungal growth and host immune function and will be modified by host ecology, behavior, and life history. These results demonstrate that B. dendrobatidis populations can grow at high rates across a broad range of environmental temperatures and help to explain why it is so successful in cold montane environments.

INVESTIGATING THE POPULATION‐LEVEL EFFECTS OF CHYTRIDIOMYCOSIS: AN EMERGING INFECTIOUS DISEASE OF AMPHIBIANS

Chytridiomycosis is an emerging infectious disease that has recently been reported in amphibian populations throughout the world. It has been associated with many cases of population declines and extinctions. In some areas of the Sierra Nevada of Cali- fornia the disease appears to be the causal factor in the rapid extinction of local populations of the mountain yellow-legged frog, Rana muscosa, within a few years of the first detection of the disease. In other areas, however, R. muscosa populations appear to persist for many years, despite high levels of infection in tadpoles. Here we present simple models of the dynamics of the disease within an individual lake and ask whether our current understanding of the disease is consistent with the field survey observations of: (a) extinction due to the disease over a wide range of host population sizes, and (b) persistence of frog populations with the disease at some sites. Despite our laboratory observation of chytridiomycosis being invariably lethal to postmetamorphic frogs, the observed long-term persistence of infected frog populations can only be explained if at least some infected adult frogs survive and reproduce.

Population genetics of the frog-killing fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis

Global amphibian decline by chytridiomycosis is a major environmental disaster that has been attributed to either recent fungal spread or environmental change that promotes disease. Here, we present a population genetic comparison of Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis isolates from an intensively studied region of frog decline, the Sierra Nevada of California. In support of a novel pathogen, we find low diversity, no amphibian-host specificity, little correlation between fungal genotype and geography, local frog extirpation by a single fungal genotype, and evidence of human-assisted fungus migration. In support of endemism, at a local scale, we find some diverse, recombining populations. Therefore neither epidemic spread nor endemism alone explains this particular amphibian decline. Recombination raises the possibility of resistant sporangia and a mechanism for rapid spread as well as persistence that could greatly complicate global control of the pathogen.

Complex history of the amphibian-killing chytrid fungus revealed with genome resequencing data

Understanding the evolutionary history of microbial pathogens is critical for mitigating the impacts of emerging infectious diseases on economically and ecologically important host species. We used a genome resequencing approach to resolve the evolutionary history of an important microbial pathogen, the chytrid Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd), which has been implicated in amphibian declines worldwide. We sequenced the genomes of 29 isolates of Bd from around the world, with an emphasis on North, Central, and South America because of the devastating effect that Bd has had on amphibian populations in the New World. We found a substantial amount of evolutionary complexity in Bd with deep phylogenetic diversity that predates observed global amphibian declines. By investigating the entire genome, we found that even the most recently evolved Bd clade (termed the global panzootic lineage) contained more genetic variation than previously reported. We also found dramatic differences among isolates and among genomic regions in chromosomal copy number and patterns of heterozygosity, suggesting complex and heterogeneous genome dynamics. Finally, we report evidence for selection acting on the Bd genome, supporting the hypothesis that protease genes are important in evolutionary transitions in this group. Bd is considered an emerging pathogen because of its recent effects on amphibians, but our data indicate that it has a complex evolutionary history that predates recent disease outbreaks. Therefore, it is important to consider the contemporary effects of Bd in a broader evolutionary context and identify specific mechanisms that may have led to shifts in virulence in this system.