Cheryl Marie Webster

Sentence Severity and Crime: Accepting the Null Hypothesis

The literature on the effects of sentence severity on crime levels has been reviewed numerous times in the past twenty-five years. Most reviews conclude that there is little or no consistent evidence that harsher sanctions reduce crime rates in Western populations. Nevertheless, most reviewers have been reluctant to conclude that variation in the severity of sentence does not have differential deterrent impacts. A reasonable assessment of the research to date-with a particular focus on studies conducted in the past decade-is that sentence severity has no effect on the level of crime in society. It is time to accept the null hypothesis.

Punitive Trends and Stable Imprisonment Rates in Canada

The stability of Canada’s level of imprisonment from 1960 to 2005 contrasts with the increased incarceration rates experienced by Canada’s most obvious comparators—the United States and England and Wales. Canada is not immune to pressure for harsher practices and policies, but at least until the end of 2005 it countered or balanced these trends with other moderating forces. Canadians have largely minimized the impact of risk factors at the root of higher imprisonment levels elsewhere. Certain protective factors have limited the extent to which Canada has adopted the same punitive policies documented in the United States and England and Wales. Several potentially ominous signs on the Canadian horizon, however, could erode the balanced approach that has characterized Canada’s response to wider punitive trends over the past forty‐five years.

Weathering the Storm? Testing Long-Standing Canadian Sentencing Policy in the Twenty-First Century

In contrast with many Western nations, the structure of Canadian sentencing and its overall effects on imprisonment did not change dramatically over the past century. To a large extent, Parliament left sentencing to judges. Broadly speaking, imprisonment was seen as a necessary evil to be used sparingly. Sentencing principles legislated in 1996 largely reflected the status quo. However, the period 2006–15 reflected a dramatic break. The Conservative government in power repeatedly attempted to restrict judicial discretion. Prison was touted as the solution to crime. Scores of politically motivated modifications were introduced to sentencing legislation. Perhaps surprisingly, few of these changes had large effects on large numbers of people. There were no appreciable changes to imprisonment rates by the time of the Conservatives’ electoral defeat in October 2015.