Chi-Chung Chen

An investigation of the relationship between pesticide usage and climate change

One concern of agriculturalists when regarding climate change involves the effects on pest populations. Climate change may allow pest migration or population expansions which may adversely affect agricultural productivity, profitability and possibly even viability. We examine the effect of current climate variations on the average and variability of U.S. per acre pesticide costs across the U.S. as a proxy for investigating the consequence for pest populations. Empirically, we find that increases in rainfall increases average per acre pesticide usage costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat while hotter weather increases pesticide costs for corn, cotton, potatoes, and soybeans but decreases the cost for wheat. We also investigated the influence of climate on the variability of pesticide costs. There we find that hotter temperatures increase pesticide cost variance for corn, potatoes, and wheat while decreasing it for soybeans. Rainfall increases cause an increase in cost variability for cotton while decreasing it for corn, potatoes, soybeans, and wheat.

Assessing socioeconomic impacts of climate change on US forests, wood-product markets, and forest recreation

S cientists have suggested that future climate change wil l s ignif icant ly affect the dis tr ibut ion, condit ion, species composit ion, and productivi ty of forests (Aber et al. 2001, Dale et al. 2001, Hansen et al. 2001, McNulty and Aber 2001). These biological changes wil l set in motion complex regional changes in supplies of wood to sawmills and paper mills, producing effects on market prices. In turn, landowners and consumers will adapt in ways that cause further feedback effects on forests. For some time, social scient is ts have been assessing the manifold implicat ions for social and economic welfare. In particular, they have been examining ways in which price responses to changing supplies cause timber growers, sawmills and pulpmills , producers, and consumers to adapt. This paper reviews this research, focusing on the forest benefits of t imber production and outdoor recreat ion. Analyzing these sectors involves quite different methods and issues because wood products are primarily producer goods that reach consumers through a complex marketing chain, whereas forest-recreation experiences are directly consumed by visitors. As part of the national assessment of climate change, a socioeconomic team (the authors of this art icle) assembled exist ing data and conducted l imited new analyses. In this short summary, many important topics must be left aside. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON

Economic Implications of Potential ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts

Some argue that global climate change may alter the frequency and strength of extreme events. This paper examines the economic damages in the agricultural sector arising from a shift in El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) event frequency and strength. The assumptions about the frequency of ENSO shift are motivated by an article by Timmermann etal. (1999). The damage estimates reported here are in the context of the global agricultural system. Annual damages in the 3 to 4 hundred million U.S. dollar range are found if only the frequency of ENSO events changes. However, annual damages rise to over

Assessing regional impacts of change: linking economic and environmental models.

1 billion if the events also intensify in strength. Event anticipation and crop mix adaption on the part of farmers can help offset the damages but cannot fully alleviate them.

Climate change, sea level rise and rice: global market implications

Abstract Increasingly, natural resource policy makers and program administrators are requiring that analysis of proposed changes include estimates of both environmental and economic implications. That requirement poses a difficulty for researchers since the spatial scale of models used for environmental analysis and for economic analysis are structured differently. In this paper we show how the differing spatial scales can be reconciled in a national analysis involving an agricultural model with state- and county-level-based geographical boundaries and a watershed model involving watershed boundaries. This type of modeling system integration has been done in analysis of single or multiple watershed-level issues, but our paper is the first to show a method for a national-level analysis involving state- and substate-level economic results and small watershed environmental results. The procedures and results are shown for a national cropland erosion control policy and for the release by one state experiment station of improved crop varieties.

Hurricanes and Possible Intensity Increases: Effects on and Reactions from U.S. Agriculture

Climate change will influence yields while sea level rise can inundate producing lands. The research reported investigates the individual and simultaneous effects of these factors on production, trade and consumption of rice the world’s number one food crop. A global rice trade model is utilized to do this. The results indicate that the combination of yield and sea level effects causes a significant reduction in production and an increase in rice prices which may have important policy implications for food security. Global rice production is reduced by 1.60% to 2.73% while global rice price increases by 7.14% to 12.77%. Sea level rise is particularly a risk factor in Bangladesh, Japan, Taiwan, Egypt, Myanmar and Vietnam. In the face of such developments, adaptation may well be desirable and thus an investigation is done over adaptation options of increased technical progress or trade liberalization with the results showing that both can mitigate such damages.

Climate Variability and Climate Change: Implications for Agriculture

Hurricanes have caused substantial damage in parts of the U.S. Damages are increasing, perhaps as part of a natural cycle or perhaps in part related to global warming. This paper examines the economic damages that hurricanes cause to U.S. agriculture, estimates the increased damage from an increase in hurricane frequency/intensity, and examines the way that sectoral reactions reduce damages. The simulation results show that hurricanes and associated adjustments cause widespread damage and redistribute agricultural welfare. We find that crop mix shifts of vulnerable crops from stricken to nonstricken regions significantly mitigate hurricane damages.

Estimating the Economic Impact of Climate Change on Cardiovascular Diseases—Evidence from Taiwan

Crop yield variability is a defining characteristic of agriculture. Variations in yield and production are strongly influenced by fluctuations in weather. Concern has been expressed about the consequences of the buildup of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere on long-term climate patterns, including the frequency of extreme events, and the subsequent effect on crop yields and yield variability. In this chapter we present background on the variability issue, including a review of the physical and human dimensions of climate change as related to agricultural production. We also present the results of two recent studies; the first focuses on the effects of climatic variability on yields and the second on the effects of increases in extreme weather events on agriculture. The first study shows that temperature and precipitation changes affect both the mean and variances of crop yields, usually in opposite ways, e.g. under increasing temperatures, corn yields decrease and yield variance increases, while increases in precipitation increase corn yields and reduce variability. In the second study, increases in the frequency and strength of one type of extreme event, the El Nino-Southern Oscillation or ENSO, results in economica damages to agriculture. These damages can be averted by using forecasts of such events in agricultural planting decisions.

Environmental Impact and Energy Production: Evaluation of Biochar Application on Taiwanese Set-Aside Land

The main purpose of this study was to investigate how climate change affects blood vessel-related heart disease and hypertension and to estimate the associated economic damage. In this paper, both the panel data model and the contingent valuation method (CVM) approaches are applied. The empirical results indicate that the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 0.226% as the variation in temperature increases by 1%. More importantly, the number of death from cardiovascular diseases would be increased by 1.2% to 4.1% under alternative IPCC climate change scenarios. The results from the CVM approach show that each person would be willing to pay US

Modelling the ENSO Forecast on Soybean Spot and Future Prices

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