Chiara Tardioli

Constraints on the near-Earth asteroid obliquity distribution from the Yarkovsky effect

Aims. From lightcurve and radar data we know the spin axis of only 43 near-Earth asteroids. In this paper we attempt to constrain the spin axis obliquity distribution of near-Earth asteroids by leveraging the Yarkovsky effect and its dependence on an asteroid’s obliquity. Methods. By modeling the physical parameters driving the Yarkovsky effect, we solve an inverse problem where we test different simple parametric obliquity distributions. Each distribution results in a predicted Yarkovsky effect distribution that we compare with a X2 test to a dataset of 125 Yarkovsky estimates. Results. We find different obliquity distributions that are statistically satisfactory. In particular, among the considered models, the best-fit solution is a quadratic function, which only depends on two parameters, favors extreme obliquities, consistent with the expected outcomes from the YORP effect, has a 2:1 ratio between retrograde and direct rotators, which is in agreement with theoretical predictions, and is statistically consistent with the distribution of known spin axes of near-Earth asteroids.

Optimal control of a space-borne laser system for a 100 m asteroid deflection under uncertainties

The paper demonstrates the technical feasibility to deflect a 100 m diameter asteroid using a moderate size spacecraft carrying a 1-20 kW solar-powered class laser. To this purpose, a recent model of the laser ablation mechanism based on the characteristics of both the laser systems and the asteroid has been used to calculate the exerted thrust in terms of direction and magnitude. This paper shows a preliminary deflection uncertainty analysis for two different control logic and assuming different laser mechanism capabilities. In particular, an optimal thrust control direction and fixed laser pointing strategies were considered with two laser optics settings: the first maintaining the focus length fixed and the second able to exactly focus on the surface. Preliminary results show that in general the fixed laser pointing strategy at low power is less able to impart high deflection. Nonetheless, when the power increases, the optimal thrust method produces undesired torques, which reduces the laser momentum coupling as side effects. However, the overall efficiency is higher in the optimal thrust case. Since the collision risk between an impacting asteroid and the Earth depends on the probability distribution of the input uncertainty parameters, it is necessary to study how the overall deflection will be affected. Both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties are taken into account to evaluate the probability of success of the proposed deflection methods.

On the use of positive polynomials for the estimation of upper and lower expectations in orbital dynamics

The paper presents the use of positive polynomials, in particular Bernstein polynomials, to represent families of probability distributions in orbital dynamics. The uncertainty in model parameters and initial conditions is modeled with p-boxes to account for imprecision and lack of knowledge. The resulting uncertainty in the quantity of interest is estimated by representing the upper and lower expectations with positive polynomials with interval coefficients. The impact probability of an asteroid subject to a partially known Yarkovsky effect is used as an illustrative example.

New methods for space debris collision assessment

Collisions between two pieces of space debris or between a piece of debris and an operative satellite is a real problem. Furthermore, collisions are responsible for the creation of new space debris systematically. The way to exclude the possibility of a collision consists of analysing the trajectories and looking for a time of coincidence. However, the analysis of all pairs of objects collected in a large orbit catalogue is unfeasible. The proposed method consists of reducing the possible pairs of candidates for a collision into a short list of pairs at real risk of collision. The method is based on a three-filter sequence: the first two filters are based on the geometry of the orbits, while the third one searches for a time of coincidence. This new method is tested resulting into an efficient tool for space debris collision assessment.