Chien-Chiang Lee

Same Financial Development Yet Different Economic Growth: Why?

We re-study the relationship between financial development and real GDP per capita growth in 48 countries. What we find is an interesting evidence that only stock market development has positive effects on growth and that banking development has an unfavorable, if not negative, effect on growth. We examine whether or not these impacts are a product of various financial and economic conditional variables. Our conditional variables consist of financial liberalization, two sets of country development dummies, crises in banking and currency dummies, the creditor protection index as well as the anti-director and corruption indices. Our results clearly show that the conditional variables of financial liberalization, high-income level, and good shareholder protection mitigate the negative impacts of banking development on growth. In contrast, the conditional variables of middle-income level, regional Latin American, Sub-Saharan African and East Asian dummies, banking and currency crises, good creditor protection, and higher corruption strengthen the negative impacts of banking development on growth. Next, the conditional variables of middle-income level, Latin American, Sub-Saharan African, and East Asian dummies strengthen the positive impacts of stock market development on growth, whereas the conditional variables of financial liberalization mitigate the positive impacts of stock market development on growth. Last, we find that the relationship between growth and bank development is better described as a weak inverse Ushape. This inverse U-shape becomes stronger when additional stock market variables are squared. Thus, financial development and growth may, in fact, be in a nonlinear form.

FDI, financial development, and economic growth: international evidence

Previous studies have recognized that the benefits from foreign direct investment (FDI) to recipient countries can only be realized when those countries have reached a certain level of financial development. However, the dynamic interrelationships among FDI, financial development, and real output, including the long-run equilibrium as well as causality, have not been analyzed. This paper overcomes this major shortcoming by applying recent advances in panel cointegration and panel error correction models for a set of 37 countries using annual data for the period 1970–2002. For the first time, we explore the directions of causality among FDI, financial development, and economic growth and obtain solid, convincing evidence of a fairly strong long-run relationship. Furthermore, the financial development indicators have a larger effect on economic growth than does FDI. From the panel causality tests, while the evidence of a short-run relationship is weak, that of a long-run relationship among the variables is unequivocal. Overall, the findings underscore the potential gains associated with FDI when coupled with financial development in an increasingly global economy.

Structural breaks, tourism development, and economic growth: Evidence from Taiwan

Abstract Our paper differs from previous studies by examining the issue of whether regime changes have broken down the stability of the long-run relationships between tourism development and real GDP in Taiwan for the 1959–2003 period. We empirically investigate the co-movements and the causal relationships among real GDP, tourism development, and the real exchange rate in a multivariate model. We use two different tourism variables—international tourism receipts and number of international tourist arrivals. To employ the unit root tests and the cointegration tests allowing for a structural break, the empirical evidence clearly shows that the causality between tourism and economic growth is bi-directional. Lastly, the international and cross-strait political change, economic shocks, and the relaxing of some tourism control and policies would break down the stability of the relationships between tourism development and economic growth. Overall, we do find the structural breakpoints, and they look to match clearly with the corresponding critical economic, political, or tourist incidents.

INSURANCE AND REAL OUTPUT: THE KEY ROLE OF BANKING ACTIVITIES

This paper applies panel cointegration tests and panel vector error correction models for 17 OECD countries and considers cross-sectional dependence and structural breaks to investigate the interrelationship between an insurance markets development and real output, controlling for banking activities. We first obtain evidence of a fairly strong long-run equilibrium relationship among them. Second, we find that insurance market development has positive effects on real output and that banking activities have an unfavorable, if not negative, effect on real output. In fact, insurance market activity is much more productive than banking sector activity. Finally, there exists bidirectional causality between insurance premiums and economic growth in the long run, suggesting the existence of the feedback hypothesis for the insurance–output nexus.

Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect

This paper investigates the stationarity properties and long-run relationship of Taiwan’s regional house prices from 1993Q1 to 2009Q2. It applies the recent unit-root test of the panel seemingly unrelated regressions augmented Dickey–Fuller (SURADF) test developed by Breuer et al. The empirical results illustrate that Taiwan’s regional house prices are a mixture of stationary and non-stationary processes, showing that the stationarity properties of these prices are dependent on the structure and properties of the various regions. Secondly, the findings of the cointegration test provide substantive evidence for a long-run relationship among all regions except Taipei City, implying a diffusion of regional house prices among each regional market except Taipei City. Finally, the results of the weak exogeneity test indicate that uni-directional causality relationships exist for three regions—Taipei County, Taoyuan-Hsinchu and Tainan-Kaohsiung—towards Taichung. The regional house price efficiently diffuses itself among these regions, caused by a much smaller public housing sector and the pre-sale system in Taiwan.

Does insurance activity promote economic growth? Further evidence based on bootstrap panel Granger causality test

This study applies the bootstrap panel Granger causality test to test whether insurance activity promotes economic growth, using data from 10 OECD countries over the period of 1979–2006. Empirical results indicate that one-way Granger causality running from all insurance activities to economic growth for France, Japan, Netherlands, Switzerland, and the UK, and economic growth Granger causes insurance activities in Canada (for life insurance), Italy (for total and life insurance) and the USA (for total and non-life insurance). There is a two-way Granger causality between life insurance activity and economic growth in the USA, while no causality between insurance activities and economic growth is found in Belgium (for all insurance), Canada (for total and non-life insurance), Italy (for non-life insurance) and Sweden (for life insurance). Our results also confirm the finding of Ward and Zurbruegg [Does insurance promote economic growth? Evidence from OECD economies. Journal of Risk and Insurance 67, no. 4: 489–506] showing that the insurance–growth nexus varies across countries, since their paper have previously demonstrated heterogeneity in this vein. In an analysis of a broader, though overlapping 17-country sample and taking into account banking activities, the results suggest the importance of including banking activities when investigating the insurance–growth relationship.

Globalization and Economic Growth: A Political Economy Analysis for OECD Countries

Abstract Globalization is commonly defined as a strict economic path by most previous works, but it is really a fuzzy concept with unrestrained dimensions. While the ideological location of an incumbent political party is a powerful predictor of its policy position, the role of a political party in the globalization-growth nexus has never been fully empirically investigated. By applying Pedronis panel cointegration technique instead of a time-series or traditional panel data approach, this paper aims to empirically re-examine the co-movement and the causal relationship among economic growth, the overall globalization index, and its three main dimensions—economic, social, as well as political integrations—by using panel data for 23 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) countries for 1970 to 2006. Certainly, the political party variable is taken into account as the advanced test is promoted, and we finally discover that all variables move together in the long run. Based on the results of the panel causality test, though the evidence of short-run causality is very weak, it does show long-run unidirectional causality running from the overall index of globalization, economic globalization, and social globalization to growth. Finally, the critical role of the political party is deeply discussed in relation with our results.

Does Insurance Matter for Growth: Empirical Evidence from OECD Countries

This paper uses disaggregated data on real insurance premiums, including life and non-life insurance premiums, to examine the interrelationship between insurance markets’ activities and economic growth for 10 selected OECD countries during the up-to-date 1979-2006 period. We take recently developed panel unit-root tests, heterogeneous panel cointegration tests, and panel causality techniques and conclude that there is fairly strong evidence favoring the hypothesis of a long-run equilibrium relationship between real GDP and insurance markets’ activities after allowing for the heterogeneous country effect. The results of the long-run panel regression parameter indicate a significantly positive relationship between real GDP and the activities within the insurance market, while a development from the non-life insurance market has a greater impact on real GDP than the activities in the life insurance market do. By implementing the dynamic panel-based error correction model, we determine that insurance markets’ development and economic growth present both the long-run and short-run bidirectional causalities.

DO DEFENCE EXPENDITURES SPUR GDP? A PANEL ANALYSIS FROM OECD AND NON-OECD COUNTRIES

This paper empirically re‐examines the long‐run co‐movements and the causal relationships between GDP and defence expenditures in a multivariate model with real defence expenditure per capita (ME), real GDP per capita (GDP), and real capital stock per capita (K). We apply the view of the aggregate production function to construct the empirical model. Using up‐to‐date data for 27 OECD countries and 62 non‐OECD countries for the 1988–2003 period, we combine cross‐sectional and time series data to re‐investigate the relationship between GDP and ME. Previous studies using time series data may have yielded misleading results on account of the short time span of typical datasets. By contrast, we use recently developed panel unit root tests and heterogeneous panel cointegration tests, and conclude that there is fairly strong evidence in favour of the hypothesis of a long‐run equilibrium relationship between GDP and ME. The long‐run panel regression parameter results, such as the fully modified OLS, indicate that a positive relationship between GDP and ME only holds for OECD countries, whereas a negative relationship from ME to GDP only exists in non‐OECD countries under examination and in the panel as a whole. Furthermore, by implementing the dynamic panel‐based error correction model, we determine that GDP and ME lack short‐run causalities, but do show long‐run bidirectional causalities in both OECD and non‐OECD countries.

What Makes International Capital Flows Promote Economic Growth? An International Cross-Country Analysis

This paper re-examines the relationship between international capital flows and economic growth within the context of various ‘conditional factors’ that possibly have the potential to influence such relationships. It achieves this by employing panel data for 80 countries that cover 1976–2007. International capital inflow is broken down into foreign direct investments (FDI) and foreign portfolio investments (FPI). We find interesting evidence that only FDI has a positive effect on growth and that FPI has an unfavorable, if not negative, effect on growth. The conditional variables of banking liberalization, high-income level, twin crises, lower corruption, and human capital mitigate the positive impacts of FDI on growth. In contrast, the middle-income level and good shareholder protection have a positive effect. As concerns FPI, the level of financial liberalization, being in a Latin American region, the wealth of countries, and market governance all influence the way that FPI affects growth, whereas the conditional variables of twin crises and human capital do not influence the effect of FPI on economic growth.