Chihiro Shimizu

Biases in appraisal land price information: the case of Japan

Purpose – This paper seeks to investigate the nature and magnitude of the distortion in appraisal land price information according to change in the market, with a special focus on the Governments Published Land Prices.Design/methodology/approach – In Japan, there is an item of land price information, so‐called Koji‐Chika (PLPS: Published Land Price Information System), that is a survey of fair market value by the qualified appraisers. The valuation error of this land price information was analyzed using the following method. First, hedonic price indices were constructed based on both actual transaction prices and the Published Land Prices, they were then compared to detect possible distortions in the governmental price information. Also the possibility of structural change in the Japanese real estate markets was studied and its effect on price indices was considered. Analysis of the Tokyo metropolitan area in Japan took place between 1975 and 1999Findings – Large and systematic discrepancies between actu...

Housing Prices in Tokyo: A Comparison of Hedonic and Repeat Sales Measures

Summary Do indexes of house prices behave differently depending on the estimation method? If so, to what extent? To address these questions, we use a unique dataset that we compiled from individual listings in a widely circulated real estate advertisement magazine. The dataset contains more than 470,000 listings of housing prices between 1986 and 2008, including the period of the housing bubble and its burst.We find that there exists a substantial discrepancy in terms of turning points between hedonic and repeat sales indexes, even though the hedonic index is adjusted for structural changes and the repeat sales index is adjusted in the way Case and Shiller suggested. Specifically, the repeat sales measure signals turning points later than the hedonic measure: for example, the hedonic measure of condominium prices bottomed out at the beginning of 2002, while the corresponding repeat sales measure exhibits a reversal only in the spring of 2004. This discrepancy cannot be fully removed even if we adjust the repeat sales index for depreciation.

Structural and temporal changes in the housing market and hedonic housing price indices

Purpose – An economic indicator faces two requirements. It should be reported in a timely manner and should not be significantly altered afterward to avoid erroneous messages. At the same time, it should reflect changing market conditions constantly and appropriately. These requirements are particularly challenging for housing price indices, since housing markets are subject to large temporal/seasonal changes and occasional structural changes. The purpose of this paper is to estimate a hedonic price index of condominiums of Tokyo, taking account of seasonal sample selection biases and structural changes in a way it enables us to report the index in a manner which is timely and not subject to change after reporting.Design/methodology/approach – The paper proposes an overlapping‐period hedonic model (OPHM), in which a hedonic price index is calculated every month based on data in the “window” of a year ending this month (this month and previous 11 months). It also estimates standard hedonic housing price in...

Residential Property Price Indexes for Tokyo

The paper uses hedonic regression techniques in order to decompose the price of a house into land and structure components using real estate sales data for Tokyo. In order to get sensible results, a nonlinear regression model using data that covered multiple time periods was used. Collinearity between the amount of land and structure in each residential property leads to inaccurate estimates for the land and structure value of a property. This collinearity problem was solved by using exogenous information on the rate of growth of construction costs in Tokyo in order to get useful constant quality subindexes for the price of land and structures separately.

Green luxury goods? The economics of eco-labels in the Japanese housing market

Using a unique transaction database of condominiums in the Tokyo metropolitan area and a hedonic analytical framework, we find that eco-labelled buildings command a small but significant premium on both the asking and transaction prices. This finding is consistent with results from other countries but in contrast to these studies, the present analysis also incorporates buyer characteristics which provide further information on the sources of demand for eco-labelled real estate. A separate estimation by subgroups reveals that the price premium is primarily driven by wealthier households that exhibit a higher willingness-to-pay for eco-labelled condominiums, both as a total amount and as a fraction of the total sales price. Less affluent households are also shown to pay higher prices for the eco label but the effect is less pronounced. The results indicate that capitalised utility bill savings are likely to account for a large proportion of the observed premium but the higher premium paid by affluent households suggests that more intangible benefits of living in a green building may also play a role.

Aging and real estate prices: evidence from Japanese and US regional data

In this paper, we empirically investigate how real estate prices are affected by aging. We run regional panel regressions for Japan and the United States. Our regression results show that, both in Japan and the U.S., real estate prices in a region are inversely correlated with the old age dependency ratio, i.e. the ratio of population aged 65+ to population aged 20-64, in that region, and positively correlated with the total number of population in that region. The demographic factor had a greater impact on real estate prices in Japan than in the U.S. Based on the regression result for Japan and the population forecast made by a government agency, we estimate the demographic impact on Japanese real estate prices over the next 30 years. We find that it will be -2.4 percent per year in 2012-2040 while it was -3.7 percent per year in 1976-2010, suggesting that aging will continue to have downward pressure on land prices over the next 30 years, although the demographic impact will be slightly smaller than it was in 1976-2010 as the old age dependency ratio will not increase as much as it did before.

POWER LAWS IN REAL ESTATE PRICES DURING BUBBLE PERIODS

How can we detect real estate bubbles? In this paper, we propose making use of information on the cross-sectional dispersion of real estate prices. During bubble periods, prices tend to go up considerably for some properties, but less so for others, so that price inequality across properties increases. In other words, a key characteristic of real estate bubbles is not the rapid price hike itself but a rise in price dispersion. Given this, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether developments in the dispersion in real estate prices can be used to detect bubbles in property markets as they arise, using data from Japan and the U.S. First, we show that the land price distribution in Tokyo had a power-law tail during the bubble period in the late 1980s, while it was very close to a lognormal before and after the bubble period. Second, in the U.S. data we find that the tail of the house price distribution tends to be heavier in those states which experienced a housing bubble. We also provide evidence suggesting that the power-law tail observed during bubble periods arises due to the lack of price arbitrage across regions.

COMMERCIAL PROPERTY PRICE INDEXES AND THE SYSTEM OF NATIONAL ACCOUNTS

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country. Related service price indexes for the land and structure input components of a commercial property are required in the Production Accounts of the country if the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry is calculated as part of the System of National accounts. The paper reviews existing methods for constructing an overall Commercial Property Price Index (CPPI) and concludes that most methods are biased (due to their neglect of depreciation) and more importantly, not able to provide separate land and structure subindexes. A class of hedonic regression models that is not subject to these problems is discussed.

Alternative Approaches to Commercial Property Price Indexes for Tokyo

The paper studies the problems associated with the construction of price indexes for commercial properties that could be used in the System of National Accounts. Property price indexes are required for the stocks of commercial properties in the Balance Sheets of the country and related price indexes for the land and structure components of a commercial property are required in the Balance Sheet accounts of the country for the calculation of the Multifactor Productivity of the Commercial Property Industry. The paper uses a variant of the builder’s model that has been used to construct Residential Property Price Indexes. Geometric depreciation rates are estimated for commercial offices in Tokyo using assessment data for REITs. The problems associated with the decomposition of asset value into land and structure components are addressed. The problems associated with depreciating capital expenditures on buildings and with measuring the loss of asset value due to early retirement of the structure are also addressed.

Longitudinal Trends in Equity of Park Accessibility in Yokohama, Japan: An Investigation into the Role of Causal Mechanisms

Despite an increasing interest in issues surrounding environmental equity, much research evidence to date is based on studies adopting cross-sectional approaches which do not adequately capture the processes and mechanisms generating inequities. Longitudinal studies may better inform policy measures to remedy inequity between populations, but the few that have been undertaken have mostly been focused solely on environmental risks—ignoring access to amenities. As a case study, we adopt a longitudinal approach in this work to investigate the association between sociodemographic indicators and public park provision over an eighteen-year period in the city of Yokohama, Japan. We show that inequities in park provision are present over the whole time period. Hedonic modelling shows that park accessibility is positively associated with house and land prices in the city. Our results suggested some, relatively weak, evidence of two causal processes: New parks are located in more affluent communities; yet new parks also appear to encourage further move-in of affluent populations. We suggest that park provision by administrative authorities in less-affluent neighbourhoods may be required to maintain equity in access to these valuable community resources. Economic incentives, such as subsidy provision, may have a role to play to encourage park provision by developers.