Chin Hur

Trends in Esophageal Adenocarcinoma Incidence and Mortality

Over the past several decades, the incidence of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) has rapidly increased. The purpose of this analysis was to examine temporal trends in EAC incidence and mortality within the US population and, in addition, to explore these trends within subgroups of the population.

The Cost Effectiveness of Radiofrequency Ablation for Barrett's Esophagus

BACKGROUND & AIMS Radiofrequency ablation (RFA) reduces the risk of esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC) in patients with Barretts esophagus (BE) with high-grade dysplasia (HGD), but its effects in patients without dysplasia are debatable. We analyzed the effectiveness and cost effectiveness of RFA for the management of BE. METHODS We constructed a decision analytic Markov model. We conducted separate analyses of hypothetical cohorts of patients with BE with dysplasia (HGD or low-grade [LGD]) and without dysplasia. In the analysis of the group with HGD, we compared results of initial RFA with endoscopic surveillance with surgery when cancer was detected. In analyzing the group with LGD or no dysplasia, we compared 3 strategies: endoscopic surveillance with surgery when cancer was detected (S1), endoscopic surveillance with RFA when HGD was detected (S2), and initial RFA followed by endoscopic surveillance (S3). RESULTS Among patients with HGD, initial RFA was more effective and less costly than endoscopic surveillance. Among patients with LGD, when S3 was compared with S2, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was

The prevalence of Barrett's esophagus in the US: estimates from a simulation model confirmed by SEER data.

18,231/quality-adjusted life-year, assuming an annual rate of progression rate from LGD to EAC of 0.5%/year. For patients without dysplasia, S2 was more effective and less costly than S1. In a comparison of S3 with S2, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were

Prognostic Gene Expression Signature for Patients With Hepatitis C–Related Early-Stage Cirrhosis

205,500,

Infliximab dose escalation vs. initiation of adalimumab for loss of response in Crohn’s disease: a cost-effectiveness analysis

124,796, and

Cost-Effectiveness of Photodynamic Therapy for Treatment of Barrett's Esophagus with High Grade Dysplasia

118,338/quality-adjusted life-year using annual rates of progression of no dysplasia to EAC of 0.12%, 0.33%, or 0.5% per year, respectively. CONCLUSIONS By using updated data, initial RFA might not be cost effective for patients with BE without dysplasia, within the range of plausible rates of progression of BE to EAC, and be prohibitively expensive, from a policy perspective. RFA might be cost effective for confirmed and stable LGD. Initial RFA is more effective and less costly than endoscopic surveillance in HGD.

Correlation of Polyp Number and Family History of Colon Cancer With Germline MYH Mutations

Barretts esophagus (BE) is the precursor and the biggest risk factor for esophageal adenocarcinoma (EAC), the solid cancer with the fastest rising incidence in the US and western world. Current strategies to decrease morbidity and mortality from EAC have focused on identifying and surveying patients with BE using upper endoscopy. An accurate estimate of the number of patients with BE in the population is important to inform public health policy and to prioritize resources for potential screening and management programs. However, the true prevalence of BE is difficult to ascertain because the condition frequently is symptomatically silent, and the numerous clinical studies that have analyzed BE prevalence have produced a wide range of estimates. The aim of this study was to use a computer simulation disease model of EAC to determine the estimates for BE prevalence that best align with US Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) cancer registry data. A previously developed mathematical model of EAC was modified to perform this analysis. The model consists of six health states: normal, gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD), BE, undetected cancer, detected cancer, and death. Published literature regarding the transition rates between these states were used to provide boundaries. During the one million computer simulations that were performed, these transition rates were systematically varied, producing differing prevalences for the numerous health states. Two filters were sequentially applied to select out superior simulations that were most consistent with clinical data. First, among these million simulations, the 1000 that best reproduced SEER cancer incidence data were selected. Next, of those 1000 best simulations, the 100 with an overall calculated BE to Detected Cancer rates closest to published estimates were selected. Finally, the prevalence of BE in the final set of best 100 simulations was analyzed. We present histogram data depicting BE prevalences for all one million simulations, the 1000 simulations that best approximate SEER data, and the final set of 100 simulations. Using the best 100 simulations, we estimate the prevalence of BE to be 5.6% (5.49-5.70%). Using our model, an estimated prevalence for BE in the general population of 5.6% (5.49-5.70%) accurately predicts incidence rates for EAC reported to the US SEER cancer registry. Future clinical studies are needed to confirm our estimate.

Radiofrequency ablation versus nephron-sparing surgery for small unilateral renal cell carcinoma: cost-effectiveness analysis.

BACKGROUND & AIMS Cirrhosis affects 1% to 2% of the world population and is the major risk factor for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Hepatitis C cirrhosis-related HCC is the most rapidly increasing cause of cancer death in the United States. Noninvasive methods have been developed to identify patients with asymptomatic early-stage cirrhosis, increasing the burden of HCC surveillance, but biomarkers are needed to identify patients with cirrhosis who are most in need of surveillance. We investigated whether a liver-derived 186-gene signature previously associated with outcomes of patients with HCC is prognostic for patients with newly diagnosed cirrhosis but without HCC. METHODS We performed gene expression profile analysis of formalin-fixed needle biopsy specimens from the livers of 216 patients with hepatitis C-related early-stage (Child-Pugh class A) cirrhosis who were prospectively followed up for a median of 10 years at an Italian center. We evaluated whether the 186-gene signature was associated with death, progression of cirrhosis, and development of HCC. RESULTS Fifty-five (25%), 101 (47%), and 60 (28%) patients were classified as having poor-, intermediate-, and good-prognosis signatures, respectively. In multivariable Cox regression modeling, the poor-prognosis signature was significantly associated with death (P = .004), progression to advanced cirrhosis (P < .001), and development of HCC (P = .009). The 10-year rates of survival were 63%, 74%, and 85% and the annual incidence of HCC was 5.8%, 2.2%, and 1.5% for patients with poor-, intermediate-, and good-prognosis signatures, respectively. CONCLUSIONS A 186-gene signature used to predict outcomes of patients with HCC is also associated with outcomes of patients with hepatitis C-related early-stage cirrhosis. This signature might be used to identify patients with cirrhosis in most need of surveillance and strategies to prevent the development of HCC.

Hepatitis C Disease Burden in the United States in the era of oral direct-acting antivirals

Background  Crohn’s disease patients who have lost response to 5 mg/kg of infliximab may regain response by increasing the dose of infliximab to 10 mg/kg. Alternatively, adalimumab can be used as a rescue therapy.

Cost-Effectiveness of Treatment and Endoscopic Surveillance of Precancerous Lesions to Prevent Gastric Cancer

The purpose of this study was to compare the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of photodynamic therapy (PDT) versus surgical esophagectomy and intensive endoscopic surveillance for patients with Barretts esophagus and high-grade dysplasia (HGD) who are operative candidates. The results of our Markov Monte Carlo model show that PDT increased life expectancy by 1.8years and quality-adjusted life expectancy (QALE) by 1.65 years when compared to the surveillance strategy. Relative to the esophagectomy strategy, PDT resulted in a greater life expectancy by 0.8 years and 2.17 additional quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). Although PDT cost