Chokri Dridi

Water Availability in the Oil Sands under Projections of Increasing Demands and a Changing Climate: An Assessment of the Lower Athabasca Water Management Framework (Phase 1)

Water extraction from the Athabasca River for oil production has generated significant public concern due to its potential environmental impacts. Phase 1 of the Lower Athabasca Water Management Framework, introduced in February 2007, limits industrial water extractions in the Oil Sands based on available data on in-stream flow needs. The framework designates green, yellow, and red flow conditions on a weekly basis for the setting of progressive water restrictions. Using various streamflow and water demand scenarios, the frequency of each flow condition is investigated along with cases of when water-use restrictions may occur. Using a base case flow scenario (10% reduction in historic flows) and a high-growth forecast of demand of 14.0 m3/s by 2025 (equivalent to full utilisation of current approved licences) it is estimated that binding flow conditions of the Phase 1 framework would occur for an average of six weeks per year during winter, with significant variance across years. To avoid restrictions, demands would need to be limited to 7.5 m3/s (i.e., average water use of 0.2 m3 per barrel of crude oil produced by 2020), or storage would be required of a capacity in the order of 15% of the annual supply to industry. An ecosystem base flow, if adopted for Phase 2 of the framework, may significantly increase the severity of restrictions (assuming an in-stream flow threshold of 100 m3/s based on the minimum weekly Q95). The results highlight the need for a long-term, cost-effective strategy to manage the implementation of water restrictions in the Oil Sands, and the problematic nature of assigning fixed licensed volumes - rather than proportional shares - in a variable streamflow environment.

The economic impacts of chronic wasting disease and bovine spongiform encephalopathy in alberta and the rest of Canada.

Input–output analysis was used to calculate the economic impacts from potential prion diseases outbreaks in Alberta and the rest of Canada. Both chronic wasting disease (CWD) and bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) have the capacity not only to affect the farmed cervid and cattle industries, but also to impact all industries with direct and indirect links to these sectors. Cervid sector shocks yield small spillover effects on the economies of Alberta as well as that of all of Canada. In contrast, the cattle sector generates larger multiplier effects in both specifically Alberta region and all of Canada. The industries that consistently experience the largest impacts from prion disease outbreaks in both Alberta and remainder of Canada economic regions are agricultural sectors, mining and energy sectors, and industries dedicated to trade, transportation, and warehousing.

Research on Socioeconomic Impacts of Chronic Wasting Disease (CWD) in Alberta

This report summarizes a series of projects undertaken by staff and students in the Department of Rural Economy which examine various socio-economic aspects of chronic wasting disease and its effect on a range of stakeholders in Alberta. The four projects included exploring impacts on the cervid farming industry, hunters, the general Albertan public, and certain Aboriginal groups. General results from these studies are presented with references that provide a more thorough analysis and discussion.

Solutions to the high costs of future water restrictions for new oil sands industry along the Athabasca River

Limits on water diversions from the Athabasca River may affect the growing oil sands industry in the medium term. For new entrants, the costs of future water restrictions may be high due to the combination of a strict water conservation regulation, a profitable oil sector that relies on fresh water, and water allocation in order of licence seniority. Though river flows would, for the most part, be preserved and well within 90% of the flows recorded upstream of industry, the future value of water for oil production is estimated to be up to

Impacts of reallocation of resource constraints on the northeast economy of Brazil

80 per cubic metre in a single period (peak spot value, approx.), and

Ranking of Research Output of Agricultural Economics Departments in Canada and Selected U.S. Universities

72,000 per megalitre if drawn annually as an ongoing, continuous demand (average marginal value in present terms). These results are based on certain model assumptions, including flows that are 10% less than the historic record, a simplified depiction of the production costs and revenues of oil producers, and no access to technologies that may reduce the cost of water restrictions. Using a medium-term (~2020) static demand scenario, a policy and two technologies to reduce the costs of water restrictions are assessed. A combined policy-technology response was found to be the most cost effective. As various technologies that lower costs are already planned or in use, further consideration of an efficient water allocation policy, such as water charges, that may reduce costs by providing incentives for efficiency and technology investment across all firms – not just new entrants – is recommended. In general, the results of this study indicate the importance of designing regulations that encourage conservation goals to be achieved at least cost. Future studies may consider the water diversion limits in the Athabasca River, including whether the costs of conservation are commensurate with the economic value of in-stream flows.