Chong Z. He

Space-time modeling for the Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey

The Missouri Turkey Hunting Survey (MTHS) is a postseason mail survey conducted by the Missouri Department of Conservation. The 1996 MTHS provides information concerning the number of turkeys harvested by hunters on each day and the total number of trips made to the counties by these hunters on each day of the hunting season. The success rates are then found from this information. Small sample sizes produce large standard errors for the estimates at the county level. We use a Bayesian hierarchical generalized linear model to estimate daily hunting success rates at the county level. The model includes an autoregressive process for the days of the hunting season and spatially correlated random geographic effects. The computations are performed using Gibbs sampling and adaptive rejection sampling techniques. Results show that there are significant spatial corelations between counties and correlations between days of the hunting season. The estimates are close to the frequency estimates at the state level and much more stable at the county level.

Modeling age and nest-specific survival using a hierarchical Bayesian approach.

Recent studies have shown that grassland birds are declining more rapidly than any other group of terrestrial birds. Current methods of estimating avian age-specific nest survival rates require knowing the ages of nests, assuming homogeneous nests in terms of nest survival rates, or treating the hazard function as a piecewise step function. In this article, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model with nest-specific covariates to estimate age-specific daily survival probabilities without the above requirements. The model provides a smooth estimate of the nest survival curve and identifies the factors that are related to the nest survival. The model can handle irregular visiting schedules and it has the least restrictive assumptions compared to existing methods. Without assuming proportional hazards, we use a multinomial semiparametric logit model to specify a direct relation between age-specific nest failure probability and nest-specific covariates. An intrinsic autoregressive prior is employed for the nest age effect. This nonparametric prior provides a more flexible alternative to the parametric assumptions. The Bayesian computation is efficient because the full conditional posterior distributions either have closed forms or are log concave. We use the method to analyze a Missouri dickcissel dataset and find that (1) nest survival is not homogeneous during the nesting period, and it reaches its lowest at the transition from incubation to nestling; and (2) nest survival is related to grass cover and vegetation height in the study area.

Bayesian estimation of age-specific bird nest survival rates with categorical covariates

The populations of many North American landbirds are showing signs of declining. Gathering information on breeding productivity allows critical assessment of population performance and helps identify good habitat-management practices. He (Biometrics (2003) 59 962–973) proposed a Bayesian model to estimate the age-specific nest survival rates. The model allows irregular visiting schedule under the assumption that the observed nests have homogeneous nest survival. Because nest survival studies are often conducted in different sites and time periods, it is not realistic to assume homogeneous nest survival. In this paper, we extend He’s model by incorporating these factors as categorical covariates. The simulation results show that the Bayesian hierarchical model can produce satisfactory estimates on nest survival and capture different factor effects. Finally the model is applied to a Missouri red-winged blackbird data set.

A full Bayesian partition model for identifying hypo- and hyper-methylated loci from single nucleotide resolution sequencing data

BackgroudDNA methylation is an epigenetic modification that plays important roles on gene regulation. Study of whole-genome bisulfite sequencing and reduced representation bisulfite sequencing brings the availability of DNA methylation at single CpG resolution. The main interest of study on DNA methylation data is to test the methylation difference under two conditions of biological samples. However, the high cost and complexity of this sequencing experiment limits the number of biological replicates, which brings challenges to the development of statistical methods.ResultsBayesian modeling is well known to be able to borrow strength across the genome, and hence is a powerful tool for high-dimensional- low-sample- size data. In order to provide accurate identification of methylation loci, especially for low coverage data, we propose a full Bayesian partition model to detect differentially methylated loci under two conditions of scientific study. Since hypo-methylation and hyper-methylation have distinct biological implication, it is desirable to differentiate these two types of differential methylation. The advantage of our Bayesian model is that it can produce one-step output of each locus being either equal-, hypo- or hyper-methylated locus without further post-hoc analysis. An R package named as MethyBayes implementing the proposed full Bayesian partition model will be submitted to the bioconductor website upon publication of the manuscript.ConclusionsThe proposed full Bayesian partition model outperforms existing methods in terms of power while maintaining a low false discovery rate based on simulation studies and real data analysis including bioinformatics analysis.

A zero-inflated Bayesian spatial model with near-locating measurements

Zero-inflated data arise in many contexts. In this paper, we develop a zero-inflated Bayesian hierarchical model which deals with spatial effects, correlation among near-locating measurements as well as excess zeros simultaneously. Inference, including the sampling from the posterior distributions, predictions at new locations, and model selection, is carried out by using computationally efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques. The posterior distributions are simulated using a Gibbs sampler with the embedded ratio-of-uniform method and the slice sampling algorithm. The approach is illustrated via an application to herbaceous data collected in the Missouri Ozark Forest Ecosystem Project. The results from the proposed model are compared with those generated from a non-zero inflated model. The proposed model fully incorporates the information from data collection and provides more reliable inference. A predictive

Bayesian population estimation for small sample capture-recapture data using noninformative priors

p

Objective Bayesian analysis for a spatial model with nugget effects

value is computed for model checking and it indicates that the proposed model fits the data well.