Chris E. Gregg

The perception of volcanic risk in Kona communities from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes, Hawai‵i

Abstract Volcanic hazards in Kona (i.e. the western side of the island of Hawai‵i) stem primarily from Mauna Loa and Hualālai volcanoes. The former has erupted 39 times since 1832. Lava flows were emplaced in Kona during seven of these eruptions and last impacted Kona in 1950. Hualālai last erupted in ca. 1800. Society’s proximity to potential eruptive sources and the potential for relatively fast-moving lava flows, coupled with relatively long time intervals since the last eruptions in Kona, are the underlying stimuli for this study of risk perception. Target populations were high-school students and adults (n=462). Using these data, we discuss threat knowledge as an influence on risk perception, and perception as a driving mechanism for preparedness. Threat knowledge and perception of risk were found to be low to moderate. On average, fewer than two-thirds of the residents were aware of the most recent eruptions that impacted Kona, and a minority felt that Mauna Loa and Hualālai could ever erupt again. Furthermore, only about one-third were aware that lava flows could reach the coast in Kona in less than 3 h. Lava flows and ash fall were perceived to be among the least likely hazards to affect the respondent’s community within the next 10 years, whereas vog (volcanic smog) was ranked the most likely. Less than 18% identified volcanic hazards as amongst the most likely hazards to affect them at home, school, or work. Not surprisingly, individual preparedness measures were found on average to be limited to simple tasks of value in frequently occurring domestic emergencies, whereas measures specific to infrequent hazard events such as volcanic eruptions were seldom adopted. Furthermore, our data show that respondents exhibit an ‘unrealistic optimism bias’ and infer that responsibility for community preparedness for future eruptions primarily rests with officials. We infer that these respondents may be less likely to attend to hazard information, react to warnings as directed, and undertake preparedness measures than other populations who perceive responsibility to lie with themselves. There are significant differences in hazard awareness and risk perception between students and adults, between subpopulations representing local areas, and between varying ethnicities. We conclude that long time intervals since damaging lava flows have occurred in Kona have contributed to lower levels of awareness and risk perceptions of the threat from lava flows, and that the on-going eruption at Kīlauea has facilitated greater awareness and perception of risk of vog but not of other volcanic hazards. Low levels of preparedness may be explained by low perceptions of threat and risk and perhaps by the lack of a clear motivation or incentive to seek new modes of adjustment.

The impact of the 2004 tsunami on coastal Thai communities: assessing adaptive capacity

The suddenness and scale of the 26 December 2004 tsunami and the challenges posed to affected communities highlighted the benefits of their members having a capacity to confront and adapt to the consequences of such a disaster. Research into adaptive capacity or resilience has been conducted almost exclusively with Western populations. This paper describes an exploratory study of the potential of a measure of collective efficacy developed for Western populations to predict the capacity of members of a collective society, Thai citizens affected by the 2004 tsunami, to confront effectively the recovery demands associated with this disaster. Following a demonstration that this measure could predict adaptive capacity, the role of religious affiliation, ethnicity and place of residence in sustaining collective efficacy is discussed. The implications of the findings for future research on, and intervention to develop, adaptive capacity among Thai citizens in particular and collectivist societies in general are discussed.

Making sense of natural hazard mitigation: Personal, social and cultural influences

Worldwide, recognition of the growing risk faced by communities in many countries from natural hazard events has stimulated interest in promoting peoples capacity to co-exist with often beneficial, but occasionally hazardous, natural processes by encouraging the adoption of preparedness measures. Starting from recognition that levels of hazard preparedness are generally low, this paper examines how peoples decisions about hazard mitigation derive from how they interpret the hazards, their relationship with the hazards and the sources of information about hazards. It describes how interpretive processes at the person (outcome expectancy), community (community participation and collective efficacy) and societal (empowerment and trust) level interact to predict levels of hazard preparedness. The data support the argument that the effectiveness of public hazard education strategies community preparedness can be increased by integrating risk management activities with community development strategies. The cross-cultural validity of the model is discussed using data from communities in New Zealand, Indonesia and Japan. Testing the model across countries and hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanic hazards) supports its all-hazards and cross-cultural applicability. The theoretical (e.g. identifying the degree to which the processes that underpin how people respond to hazard threats are culturally equivalent) and practical (e.g. providing a common basis for collaborative learning and research between countries and providing risk management agencies in different cultures with access to a wider range of risk management options) implications of the cross-cultural equivalence of the model are discussed.

Developing warning and disaster response capacity in the tourism sector in coastal Washington, USA.

Purpose – There has been a considerable effort over the last decade to increase awareness of the tsunami risk in coastal Washington, USA. However, contemporary research on warning systems spawned by the recent Indian Ocean tsunami tragedy highlights the need for development of an effective tsunami warning system for both residents and transient populations, including visitors and tourists. This study sets out evaluate staff training for emergencies, emergency management exercises (including drills and evacuation), and hazard signage within motels and hotels in Ocean Shores, Washington, USA.Design/methodology/approach – Data were collected from interviews with reception staff and managers at 18 hotels, motels, and other accommodation establishments.Findings – Levels of staff training and preparedness for tsunami and other hazards were found to be generally very low, although examples of “best practice” were found at a select few establishments. Larger hotels already had orientation or general training prog...

Natural Warning Signs of Tsunamis: Human Sensory Experience and Response to the 2004 Great Sumatra Earthquake and Tsunami in Thailand

Natural warning signs of tsunamis include ground shaking from earthquakes and unusual sea-level fluctuations, wave forms, and sounds. These signs can alert people to impending tsunamis, but no research has explored the recognizability of these signs or the social-cognitive factors that affect human behavioral response to them. Of 663 interviewees, 24% felt ground shaking during the earthquake; 69% saw something unusual about the ocean before the first wave reached land, mostly a receded shoreline; and 55% heard something unusual. Despite these levels of observation, most people did not evacuate. In fact, 65% saw other people in the danger zone at the time of the tsunami impact. Most respondents had to run for their lives but could not identify a safe place. There are major differences in experience among north, central, and southern coastal Thailand, reflecting social, topographical, and hydrological factors.

Vulnerability Assessment and Risk Mitigation: The Case of Vulcano Island, Italy

This paper reports on a comprehensive vulnerability analysis based on a research work developed within the EC ENSURE Project (7FP) dealing with the assessment of different volcanic phenomena and induced mass-movements on Vulcano Island (S Italy) as a key tool for proactive efforts for multi-risk mitigation. The work is mainly focused on tephra sedimentation and lahar hazards and related physical, systemic and mitigation capacities.

Household evacuation characteristics in American Samoa during the 2009 Samoa Islands tsunami.

Tsunamis represent significant threats to human life and development in coastal communities. This quantitative study examines the influence of household characteristics on evacuation actions taken by 211 respondents in American Samoa who were at their homes during the 29 September 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa Islands earthquake and tsunami disaster. Multiple logistic regression analysis of survey data was used to examine the association between evacuation and various household factors. Findings show that increases in distance to shoreline were associated with a slightly decreased likelihood of evacuation, whereas households reporting higher income had an increased probability of evacuation. The response in American Samoa was an effective one, with only 34 fatalities in a tsunami that reached shore in as little as 15 minutes. Consequently, future research should implement more qualitative study designs to identify event and cultural specific determinants of household evacuation behaviour to local tsunamis.

Survivors perceptions of stakeholders and the 2009 South Pacific tsunami

Purpose – Near-field tsunamis provide short warning periods of equal to 30 minutes, which can complicate at-risk individuals’ protective action decisions. In the face of a tsunami, people may turn to individuals such as friends, family, neighbors, or organizations such as the media to obtain warning information to help facilitate evacuation and/or to seek protection from the hazard. To characterize norms for protection action behavior during a near-field tsunami, the purpose of this paper is to explore American Samoan residents’ perceptions of four social stakeholder groups on three characteristics – tsunami knowledge, trustworthiness, and protection responsibility – regarding the September 29, 2009, Mw 8.1 earthquake and tsunami in American Samoa. Design/methodology/approach – The social stakeholder groups were the respondents themselves, their peers, officials, and media. Mean ratings revealed that respondents rated themselves highest for tsunami knowledge and protection against the tsunami but rated pe...

Volcano Warning Systems

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.

Chapter 67 – Volcano Warning Systems

Messages conveying volcano alert level such as Watches and Warnings are designed to provide people with risk information before, during, and after eruptions. Information is communicated to people from volcano observatories and emergency management agencies and from informal sources and social and environmental cues. Any individual or agency can be both a message sender and a recipient and multiple messages received from multiple sources is the norm in a volcanic crisis. Significant challenges to developing effective warning systems for volcanic hazards stem from the great diversity in unrest, eruption, and post-eruption processes and the rapidly advancing digital technologies that people use to seek real-time risk information. Challenges also involve the need to invest resources before unrest to help people develop shared mental models of important risk factors. Two populations of people are the target of volcano notifications–ground- and aviation-based populations, and volcano warning systems must address both distinctly different populations.