Chris J. C. Reason

Multidecadal Variability in the Climate System over the Indian Ocean Region during the Austral Summer

Abstract Several independent historical studies of global atmospheric and oceanic parameters have identified low-frequency fluctuations in the global climate system. Much of this research has focused on Europe, the Atlantic Ocean, and North America. However, recent interest has begun to encompass decadal to multidecadal variability across the Indo-Pacific region. Such variability has been detected in sea surface temperature (SST), mean sea level pressure (MSLP), and surface wind fields over both the landmasses and the oceans. Around the Indian Ocean basin, the broad periods before and after the 1940s show important differences in features such as Indian southwest monsoonal rainfall and circulation patterns, relationships between austral summer rainfall in southern Africa and the El Ni˜o–Southern Oscillation phenomenon, and Australasian MSLP. Very little is known about this variability, particularly during the austral summer. In an effort to isolate such fluctuations and work toward understanding the physi...

South East tropical Atlantic warm events and southern African rainfall

[1] Intrusions of warm equatorial water in the South East Atlantic Ocean off Angola and Namibia may be linked with above average rainfall along the coast of those countries but sometimes also with inland areas of southern Africa e.g. Zambia. During the 1984, 1986, 1995 and 2001 warm events, above average rainfall occurred near the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies and extended inland from the coast to an extent that appeared to depend on the intensity of the regional moisture convergence and atmospheric circulation anomalies. Rainfall over western Angola/Namibia is greatest for those events for which the local circulation anomalies act to strengthen the climatological westwards flux of Indian Ocean sourced moisture across low latitude southern Africa and which flow anticyclonically over the warmest SST off the coast thereby weakening the mean southeasterly moisture flux away from Africa over the SE Atlantic. The significance of the warm events occurring during the February to April period is that this is the time when SST reaches its maximum in the annual cycle (up to 28C off northern Angola) and this favours more intense local evaporation and convection and a greater impact on late austral summer rainfall. Better understanding of these warm events is necessary for assessing impacts on regional rainfall, agriculture and fisheries and for improving seasonal forecasting in this region. INDEX TERMS: 3309 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Climatology (1620); 3374 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Tropical meteorology; 3319 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: General circulation; 1821 Hydrology: Floods; 3339 Meteorology and Atmospheric Dynamics: Ocean/atmosphere interactions (0312, 4504). Citation: Rouault, M., P. Florenchie, N. Fauchereau, and C. J. C. Reason, South East tropical Atlantic warm events and southern African rainfall, Geophys. Res. Lett., 30(5), 8009, doi:10.1029/2002GL014840, 2003.

Contributions of Indian Ocean Sea Surface Temperatures to Enhanced East African Rainfall

Abstract Links between extreme wet conditions over East Africa and Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures (SST) are investigated during the core of the so-called short rain season in October–November. During periods of enhanced East African rainfall, Indian Ocean SST anomalies reminiscent of a tropical Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) event are observed. Ensemble simulations with an atmospheric general circulation model are used to understand the relative effect of local and large-scale Indian Ocean SST anomalies on above-average East African precipitation. The importance of the various tropical and subtropical IOD SST poles, both individually and in combination, is quantified. In the simulations, enhanced East African “short rains” are predominantly driven by the local warm SST anomalies in the western equatorial Indian Ocean, while the eastern cold pole of the tropical IOD is of lesser importance. The changed East African rainfall distribution can be explained by a reorganization of the atmospheric circulation ...

Evolution of Interannual Warm and Cold Events in the Southeast Atlantic Ocean

Extreme warm episodes in the southeast Atlantic Ocean, known as Benguela Ninos, have devastating envi- ronmental impacts and have been shown to be remotely forced. To place these extreme events into perspective, the investigation is here extended to minor warm events as well as to cold episodes. To this end, different sets of observations have been combined with outputs from a numerical simulation of the tropical Atlantic for the period 1982-99. It is shown that both warm and cold surface events develop regularly in the same specific region along the coast of Angola and Namibia. Some cold events compete in magnitude with major warm episodes. Local sea-air heat flux exchanges do not seem to precondition the sea surface in the Angola-Benguela region prior to the arrival of an event. Most warm and cold episodes are large-scale events despite their limited surface signature. They appear to be generated by wind anomalies in the western and central equatorial Atlantic in the same way as Benguela Ninos. Seasonal fluctuations of the depth and shape of the tropical thermocline seem partly to control the way subsurface anomalies eventually impact the surface. During austral summer, surface anomalies create an identifiable pool centered near 158S, whereas in winter they show an elongated pattern along the coast stretching toward the equator. Local upwelling or downwelling favorable wind regimes, as well as local net heat fluxes, may modulate the surface expression of events.

Agulhas Leakage Predominantly Responds to the Southern Hemisphere Westerlies

AbstractThe Agulhas Current plays a crucial role in the thermohaline circulation through its leakage into the South Atlantic Ocean. Under both past and present climates, the trade winds and westerlies could have the ability to modulate the amount of Indian–Atlantic inflow. Compelling arguments have been put forward suggesting that trade winds alone have little impact on the magnitude of Agulhas leakage. Here, employing three ocean models for robust analysis—a global coarse-resolution, a regional eddy-permitting, and a nested high-resolution eddy-resolving configuration—and systematically altering the position and intensity of the westerly wind belt in a series of sensitivity experiments, it is shown that the westerlies, in particular their intensity, control the leakage. Leakage responds proportionally to the intensity of westerlies up to a certain point. Beyond this, through the adjustment of the large-scale circulation, energetic interactions occur between the Agulhas Return Current and the Antarctic Ci...

Tropical–Extratropical Interactions over Southern Africa: Three Cases of Heavy Summer Season Rainfall

Abstract The synoptic evolution of three tropical–extratropical (TE) interactions, each responsible for extreme rainfall events over southern Africa, is discussed in detail. Along with the consideration of previously studied events, common features of these heavy rainfall producing tropical temperate troughs (TTTs) over southern Africa are discussed. It is found that 2 days prior to an event, northeasterly moisture transports across Botswana, set up by the Angola low, are diverted farther south into the semiarid region of subtropical southern Africa. The TTTs reach full maturity as a TE cloud band, rooted in the central subcontinent, which is triggered by upper-level divergence along the leading edge of an upper-tropospheric westerly wave trough. Convection and rainfall within the cloud band is supported by poleward moisture transports with subtropical air rising as it leaves the continent and joins the midlatitude westerly flow. It is shown that these systems fit within a theoretical framework describing...

Atlantic Climate Variability and Predictability: A CLIVAR Perspective

Three interrelated climate phenomena are at the center of the Climate Variability and Predictability (CLIVAR) Atlantic research: tropical Atlantic variability (TAV), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (MOC). These phenomena produce a myriad of impacts on society and the environment on seasonal, interannual, and longer time scales through variability manifest as coherent fluctuations in ocean and land temperature, rainfall, and extreme events. Improved understanding of this variability is essential for assessing the likely range of future climate fluctuations and the extent to which they may be predictable, as well as understanding the potential impact of human-induced climate change. CLIVAR is addressing these issues through prioritized and integrated plans for short-term and sustained observations, basin-scale reanalysis, and modeling and theoretical investigations of the coupled Atlantic climate system and its links to remote regions. In this paper, a brief review of the state of understanding of Atlantic climate variability and achievements to date is provided. Considerable discussion is given to future challenges related to building and sustaining observing systems, developing synthesis strategies to support understanding and attribution of observed change, understanding sources of predictability, and developing prediction systems in order to meet the scientific objectives of the CLIVAR Atlantic program.

ENSO related modulation of coastal upwelling in the eastern Atlantic

An index of ENSO in the Pacific during early boreal winter is shown to account for a significant part of the variability of coastal SST anomalies measured a few months later within the wind driven West African coastal upwelling region from 10°N to 26°N. This teleconnection is thought to result from an atmospheric bridge between the Pacific and Atlantic oceans, leading to warm (cold) ENSO events being associated with a relaxation (intensification) of the Atlantic trade winds and of the wind-induced coastal upwelling. This ENSO related modulation of the wind-driven coastal upwelling appears to contribute to the connection observed at the basin-scale between ENSO and SST in the north Atlantic. The ability to use this teleconnection to give warnings of large changes in the West African upwelling several months in advance is successfully tested using data from the 1998 and 1999 ENSO events.

Underestimation of Latent and Sensible Heat Fluxes above the Agulhas Current in NCEP and ECMWF Analyses

Abstract The Agulhas Current is the major western boundary current of the Southern Hemisphere. South of Africa it retroflects back into the southwest Indian Ocean, transporting relatively warm water into the midlatitudes. Large sensible and latent heat transfers from the Agulhas Current and its retroflection to the atmosphere occur throughout the year, but particularly during winter. This study suggests that the NCEP and ECMWF models tend to underestimate these fluxes because they are unable to adequately represent the air–sea fluxes over the warmest waters in the core of the current. This core is only 80–100 km wide and it is suggested that the SST data used by these models do not have fine enough spatial resolution to properly represent the Agulhas Current and its mesoscale variability.

Evidence for the influence of remote forcing on interdecadal variability in the southern Indian Ocean

Previous analysis of the Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set and United Kingdom Meteorological Office Globally Integrated Sea-Ice and Sea Surface Temperature data, when studied in terms of the four epochs 1900–1920, 1921–1941, 1942–1962, and 1963–1983, has indicated significant interdecadal variability in austral summer sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation patterns over the wider Indian Ocean region. A global ocean general circulation model is used to investigate the dynamical response of the ocean to the observed interdecadal variability in the local winds and to various remote wind forcings. The potential thermodynamic effect of the winds on the surface heat flux is specifically excluded. Attention is focused on SST anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean, particularly the Agulhas Current, retroflection, and outflow zones, because this is where the observations exhibit the most prominent SST variability. When the observed Indian Ocean epoch winds are imposed, the dynamical response of the model leads to SST anomalies of the right sign as the observations but smaller in both magnitude and areal extent. When the magnitude of the mean Pacific winds is increased (decreased), the model responds dynamically by strengthening (weakening) the Indonesian throughflow, which then modulates the southern Indian gyre accordingly. The resulting SST anomalies in the southern Indian Ocean are larger and more widely distributed than those obtained with the local winds and bear greater resemblance to the observed patterns in this region. The results of this study suggest that modulations to the Indonesian throughflow can impact significantly on interdecadal variability in the southern Indian Ocean. Changes in the magnitude of the mean winds over the Pacific is one remote forcing mechanism demonstrated to modulate the Indonesian throughflow, and, hence, the Indian Ocean.