Chris Van Turnhout

Avian population consequences of climate change are most severe for long-distance migrants in seasonal habitats

One consequence of climate change is an increasing mismatch between timing of food requirements and food availability. Such a mismatch is primarily expected in avian long-distance migrants because of their complex annual cycle, and in habitats with a seasonal food peak. Here we show that insectivorous long-distance migrant species in The Netherlands declined strongly (1984–2004) in forests, a habitat characterized by a short spring food peak, but that they did not decline in less seasonal marshes. Also, within generalist long-distance migrant species, populations declined more strongly in forests than in marshes. Forest-inhabiting migrant species arriving latest in spring declined most sharply, probably because their mismatch with the peak in food supply is greatest. Residents and short-distance migrants had non-declining populations in both habitats, suggesting that habitat quality did not deteriorate. Habitat-related differences in trends were most probably caused by climate change because at a European scale, long-distance migrants in forests declined more severely in western Europe, where springs have become considerably warmer, when compared with northern Europe, where temperatures during spring arrival and breeding have increased less. Our results suggest that trophic mismatches may have become a major cause for population declines in long-distance migrants in highly seasonal habitats.

Differences in the climatic debts of birds and butterflies at a continental scale

Climate changes have profound effects on the distribution of numerous plant and animal species(1-3). However, whether and how different taxonomic groups are able to track climate changes at large spatial scales is still unclear. Here, we measure and compare the climatic debt accumulated by bird and butterfly communities at a European scale over two decades (1990-2008). We quantified the yearly change in community composition in response to climate change for 9,490 bird and 2,130 butterfly communities distributed across Europe(4). We show that changes in community composition are rapid but different between birds and butterflies and equivalent to a 37 and 114 km northward shift in bird and butterfly communities, respectively. We further found that, during the same period, the northward shift in temperature in Europe was even faster, so that the climatic debts of birds and butterflies correspond to a 212 and 135 km lag behind climate. Our results indicate both that birds and butterflies do not keep up with temperature increase and the accumulation of different climatic debts for these groups at national and continental scales.

Declines in insectivorous birds are associated with high neonicotinoid concentrations

Recent studies have shown that neonicotinoid insecticides have adverse effects on non-target invertebrate species. Invertebrates constitute a substantial part of the diet of many bird species during the breeding season and are indispensable for raising offspring. We investigated the hypothesis that the most widely used neonicotinoid insecticide, imidacloprid, has a negative impact on insectivorous bird populations. Here we show that, in the Netherlands, local population trends were significantly more negative in areas with higher surface-water concentrations of imidacloprid. At imidacloprid concentrations of more than 20 nanograms per litre, bird populations tended to decline by 3.5 per cent on average annually. Additional analyses revealed that this spatial pattern of decline appeared only after the introduction of imidacloprid to the Netherlands, in the mid-1990s. We further show that the recent negative relationship remains after correcting for spatial differences in land-use changes that are known to affect bird populations in farmland. Our results suggest that the impact of neonicotinoids on the natural environment is even more substantial than has recently been reported and is reminiscent of the effects of persistent insecticides in the past. Future legislation should take into account the potential cascading effects of neonicotinoids on ecosystems.

Bird population trends are linearly affected by climate change along species thermal ranges

Beyond the effects of temperature increase on local population trends and on species distribution shifts, how populations of a given species are affected by climate change along a species range is still unclear. We tested whether and how species responses to climate change are related to the populations locations within the species thermal range. We compared the average 20 year growth rates of 62 terrestrial breeding birds in three European countries along the latitudinal gradient of the species ranges. After controlling for factors already reported to affect bird population trends (habitat specialization, migration distance and body mass), we found that populations breeding close to the species thermal maximum have lower growth rates than those in other parts of the thermal range, while those breeding close to the species thermal minimum have higher growth rates. These results were maintained even after having controlled for the effect of latitude per se. Therefore, the results cannot solely be explained by latitudinal clines linked to the geographical structure in local spring warming. Indeed, we found that populations are not just responding to changes in temperature at the hottest and coolest parts of the species range, but that they show a linear graded response across their European thermal range. We thus provide insights into how populations respond to climate changes. We suggest that projections of future species distributions, and also management options and conservation assessments, cannot be based on the assumption of a uniform response to climate change across a species range or at range edges only.

More and more generalists: two decades of changes in the European avifauna.

Biotic homogenization (BH) is a process whereby some species (losers) are systematically replaced by others (winners). While this process has been related to the effects of anthropogenic activities, whether and how BH is occurring across regions and the role of native species as a driver of BH has hardly been investigated. Here, we examine the trend in the community specialization index (CSI) for 234 native species of breeding birds at 10 111 sites in six European countries from 1990 to 2008. Unlike many BH studies, CSI uses abundance information to estimate the balance between generalist and specialist species in local assemblages. We show that bird communities are more and more composed of native generalist species across regions, revealing a strong, ongoing BH process. Our result suggests a rapid and non-random change in community composition at a continental scale is occurring, most likely driven by anthropogenic activities.

Consistent response of bird populations to climate change on two continents.

Birds populations allied in abundance Changes in climate can cause populations of species to decline, to increase, or to remain steady. Stephens et al. looked across species of common birds in Europe and the United States. Despite many differences between the two regions, expectations about how a species might respond to climate change did predict actual responses. Species predicted to benefit from increasing temperatures, or their associated effects, tended to increase, whereas those predicted to be negatively affected declined. Thus, even across widely varying ecological conditions and communities, climate change can be expected to alter population sizes. Science, this issue p. 84 The impact of climate change on population sizes of birds across continents can be predicted. Global climate change is a major threat to biodiversity. Large-scale analyses have generally focused on the impacts of climate change on the geographic ranges of species and on phenology, the timing of ecological phenomena. We used long-term monitoring of the abundance of breeding birds across Europe and the United States to produce, for both regions, composite population indices for two groups of species: those for which climate suitability has been either improving or declining since 1980. The ratio of these composite indices, the climate impact indicator (CII), reflects the divergent fates of species favored or disadvantaged by climate change. The trend in CII is positive and similar in the two regions. On both continents, interspecific and spatial variation in population abundance trends are well predicted by climate suitability trends.

Large-Scale Changes in Community Composition: Determining Land Use and Climate Change Signals

Human land use and climate change are regarded as the main driving forces of present-day and future species extinction. They may potentially lead to a profound reorganisation of the composition and structure of natural communities throughout the world. However, studies that explicitly investigate both forms of impact--land use and climate change--are uncommon. Here, we quantify community change of Dutch breeding bird communities over the past 25 years using time lag analysis. We evaluate the chronological sequence of the community temperature index (CTI) which reflects community response to temperature increase (increasing CTI indicates an increase in relative abundance of more southerly species), and the temporal trend of the community specialisation index (CSI) which reflects community response to land use change (declining CSI indicates an increase of generalist species). We show that the breeding bird fauna underwent distinct directional change accompanied by significant changes both in CTI and CSI which suggests a causal connection between climate and land use change and bird community change. The assemblages of particular breeding habitats neither changed at the same speed and nor were they equally affected by climate versus land use changes. In the rapidly changing farmland community, CTI and CSI both declined slightly. In contrast, CTI increased in the more slowly changing forest and heath communities, while CSI remained stable. Coastal assemblages experienced both an increase in CTI and a decline in CSI. Wetland birds experienced the fastest community change of all breeding habitat assemblages but neither CTI nor CSI showed a significant trend. Overall, our results suggest that the interaction between climate and land use changes differs between habitats, and that comparing trends in CSI and CTI may be useful in tracking the impact of each determinant.

Reproductive timing as a constraint on invasion success in the Ring-necked parakeet ( Psittacula krameri )

Climate similarity favors biological invasion, but a match between seasonality in the novel range and the timing of life cycle events of the invader also influences the outcome of species introduction. Yet, phenology effects on invasion success have generally been neglected. Here we study whether a phenological mismatch limits the non-native range of a globally successful invader, the Ring-necked parakeet, in Europe. Given the latitudes at which parakeets have established across Europe, they breed earlier than expected based on breeding dates from the native Asian range. Moreover, comparing the breeding dates of European populations to those of parakeets in the native Asian range, to five native breeding bird species in Europe and to the start of the growing season of four native European trees shows that the discrepancy between expected and actual breeding phenology is greater in northern Europe. In northern European populations, this temporal mismatch appears to have negative effects on hatching success, and on population growth rates in years that are colder than average in the first six months. Phenological mismatch also can explain why parakeets from African populations (that are more likely to breed in autumn) have been poor invaders compared to parakeets from Asia. These lines of evidence support the hypothesis that the reproductive phenology of the Ring-necked parakeet can be a limiting factor for establishment and range expansion in colder climates. Our results provide growing support for the hypothesis that the match between climate seasonality and timing of reproduction (or other important life cycle events) can affect the establishment success, invasive potential and distribution range of introduced non-native species, beyond the mere effect of climate similarity.

Population dynamics of Great Bittern (Botaurus stellaris) in the Netherlands: interaction effects of winter weather and habitat fragmentation

The increased variability in weather as a manifestation of climate change is expected to have negative impacts on population survival in wildlife species, because it will likely lead to increased variation in vital demographic rates (mortality and reproduction) in these populations. For the effective protection of biodiversity, adaptation measures are needed to compensate for the expected increase in weather variability and the negative interaction with habitat fragmentation. As a case study, we studied the fluctuations in Great Bittern numbers (Botaurus stellaris) from 28 monitoring plots scattered over the Netherlands to explore the interaction between the effect of weather and possible remediating effects of the landscape structure. Great Bittern habitat surrounding these plots differs with respect to area, quality, and degree of isolation of this habitat. In western Europe, Great Bitterns are found to be susceptible to continuous loss of suitable habitat due to vegetation succession and fragmentation. Moreover, year-to-year fluctuations in local Great Bittern populations can be caused by severe winter weather or other weather extremes. Our results show that severe winter weather has indeed a significant negative impact on Great Bittern population growth rates. Furthermore, we found that an increased carrying capacity and spatial cohesion (i.e. inverse of habitat fragmentation) contribute to an increase in mean growth rates over the years. As growth rates are higher in large, well-connected habitats, we argue that recovery from negative effects of, e.g. severe winters on Great Bittern population numbers is enhanced in these less-fragmented habitats. We derived generic adaptation measures for enhancing the recovery rate of populations of species in general: one should invest in more large, well-connected nature areas, not only to diminish the negative effects of habitat fragmentation on wildlife populations, but additionally to reduce the impacts of climatic variability.

Stage-dependent survival in relation to timing of fledging in a migratory passerine, the Northern Wheatear (Oenanthe oenanthe)

AbstractA better understanding of factors affecting population change is needed to explain declines of long-distance migrants. As juvenile survival is generally an important determinant of population dynamics, assessing whether juvenile survival is primarily affected either during the post-fledging stage on the natal site or during the migration and winter stages (migration-winter) is important for developing conservation strategies. Here, we assess variation in stage-dependent survival of juvenile Northern Wheatears (Oenanthe oenanthe), a threatened passerine in northwestern Europe. We estimate apparent survival in a Dutch coastal breeding population based on frequent resightings during the whole breeding season. We show that post-fledging survival on the natal grounds was not clearly different from survival during migration-winter and that late fledging reduces survival during both post-fledging and migration-winter. It is unknown which factors are causal to lower survival of late-fledged juveniles and this hampers effective conservation. Meanwhile, conservation measures focusing on nest protection should increase average juvenile survival in the remaining small populations in the short term because the number of successfully fledged early juveniles should increase.ZusammenfassungPhasenabhängiges Überleben in Bezug zum Zeitpunkt des Ausfliegens bei einem ziehenden Singvogel, dem Steinschmätzer (Oenanthe oenanthe) Bestandsrückgänge bei Langstreckenziehern erfordern ein besseres Verständnis der Faktoren, die die Populationsveränderungen beeinflussen. Da das Überleben der Juvenilen im Allgemeinen eine wichtige Bestimmungsgröße für die Populationsdynamik ist, ist es für die Entwicklung von Schutzstrategien wichtig festzustellen, ob das Überleben der Juvenilen primär entweder während der Zeit nach dem Ausfliegen im Geburtsgebiet oder während des Zug- und Überwinterungszeitraumes beeinflusst wird. In dieser Studie untersuchen wir das phasenabhängige Überleben junger Steinschmätzer (Oenanthe oenanthe), einer bedrohten Singvogelart in Nordwesteuropa. Basierend auf regelmäßigen Beobachtungen während der gesamten Brutzeit bestimmten wir das Überleben in einer Brutpopulation an der niederländischen Küste. Wir zeigen, dass sich das Überleben in der Zeit nach dem Ausfliegen im Geburtsgebiet nicht klar unterschied vom Überleben während des Zug- und Überwinterungszeitraumes und dass ein spätes Flüggewerden die Überlebenswahrscheinlichkeit sowohl in der Nachbrutzeit als auch während des Zuges und der Überwinterung verringert. Es ist unbekannt, welche Faktoren das geringere Überleben der spät ausgeflogenen Jungvögel bewirken, was einen effektiven Schutz erschwert. Mittlerweile führen Schutzmaßnahmen mit Fokus auf den Schutz von Nestern kurzfristig zu einem Anstieg der durchschnittlichen Überlebenswahrscheinlich der Jungvögel in den verbliebenen kleinen Populationen, da die Anzahl der erfolgreich ausgeflogenen frühen Jungvögel ansteigt.