Chris Wilson

Tide‐surge interaction and its role in the distribution of surge residuals in the North Sea

[1] Storm surges are the sea level response to meteorological conditions. Scientists and engineers need to understand the interaction of surges with the tide in order to provide better estimates of extreme sea level for use in coastal defense. Using data from five tide gauges, spaced equally along the North Sea coastline around the UK, we show that the mode of peak residual occurrence is everywhere 3 to 5 hours before the nearest high water. We reveal a previously unobserved mode that falls 1 to 2 hours prior to high water, although this cluster is not associated with the highest residuals. A simple mathematical explanation for surge clustering on the rising tide is presented. The phase shift of the tidal signal is combined with the modulation of surge production due to water depth in a model that provides a good description of the residual data set. The results contain several features of interest for flood risk management. We show that large, locally generated surges are precluded close to high water. For physically realistic arrival times of any travelling surge component, the residual peak will avoid high water for any finite tidal phase shift. Furthermore, increasing the tidal range reduces the risk of residual peaks near high water. We draw attention to the existence of critical time and space scales for surge development and decay. For reliable operational forecasts of sea level, coastal numerical models need to reproduce both tides and surges with improved accuracy.

Eddy Heat Flux in the Southern Ocean: Response to Variable Wind Forcing

Abstract The authors assess the role of time-dependent eddy variability in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) in influencing warming of the Southern Ocean. For this, an eddy-resolving quasigeostrophic model of the wind-driven circulation is used, and the response of circumpolar transport, eddy kinetic energy, and eddy heat transport to changes in winds is quantified. On interannual time scales, the model exhibits the behavior of an “eddy saturated” ocean state, where increases in wind stress do not significantly change the circumpolar transport, but instead enhance the eddy field. This is in accord with previous dynamical arguments, and a recent observational study. The instantaneous response to increased wind stress is to cool temperatures through increased northward Ekman transport of cool water. But, in the longer term, the enhanced eddy state is more efficient at transporting heat, leading to a warming of the ocean. The total eddy heat flux response is greater than the Ekman transport heat flux i...

Ocean and Atmosphere Storm Tracks: The Role of Eddy Vorticity Forcing

Abstract Signatures of eddy variability and vorticity forcing are diagnosed in the atmosphere and ocean from weather center reanalysis and altimetric data broadly covering the same period, 1992–2002. In the atmosphere, there are localized regions of eddy variability referred to as storm tracks. At the entrance of the storm track the eddies grow, providing a downgradient heat flux and accelerating the mean flow eastward. At the exit and downstream of the storm track, the eddies decay and instead provide a westward acceleration. In the ocean, there are similar regions of enhanced eddy variability along the extension of midlatitude boundary currents and the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Within these regions of high eddy kinetic energy, there are more localized signals of high Eady growth rate and downgradient eddy heat fluxes. As in the atmosphere, there are localized regions in the Southern Ocean where ocean eddies provide statistically significant vorticity forcing, which acts to accelerate the mean flow ...

Wind work on the geostrophic ocean circulation: An observational study of the effect of small scales in the wind stress

We use QuikSCAT scatterometer data, together with geostrophic surface currents calculated from a combination of satellite altimetry, gravity and drifter data, to investigate the rate of work done on the geostrophic circulation by wind stress. In particular, we test the suggestion that accounting for ocean currents in the calculation of stress from 10 m winds can result in a reduction of 20–35% in the wind work, compared with an approximate calculation in which currents are not accounted for. We calculate the predicted effect of accounting for ocean currents to be a reduction in power of about 0.19 TW, and find a total power input from observations which include this effect to be 0.76 TW, smaller than earlier estimates by about the right amount. By recalculating the power input using smoothed wind stresses or currents, we demonstrate that the effect of ocean currents is visible in the midlatitude data, and close to the predicted value. Proof that the data are adequate to resolve the effect in the tropics, however, is lacking, suggesting that additional processes may also be important in this region.

Rapid Southern Ocean front transitions in an eddy-resolving ocean GCM

The formation of persistent multiple fronts is an established feature of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC). Front strength and location are closely linked to eddy properties and therefore have important implications for the eddy-driven closure of the Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation. ACC front structure is analyzed here by calculating regional probability density functions (PDFs) of potential vorticity diagnosed in an eddy-resolving ocean general circulation model. Rapid spatial transitions in the number of fronts and in the density classes over which they occur are found. Front transitions are associated with the major topographic obstacles Kerguelen Island, Campbell Plateau and Drake Passage; multiple fronts are preferentially found downstream of these features. These findings highlight the significant departure from zonal symmetry of the ACC front structure and emphasize the importance of local dynamics on large-scale Southern Ocean properties.

Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic Program: A New International Ocean Observing System

A new ocean observing system has been launched in the North Atlantic in order to understand the linkage between the meridional overturning circulation and deep water formation. For decades oceanographers have understood the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) to be primarily driven by changes in the production of deep water formation in the subpolar and subarctic North Atlantic. Indeed, current IPCC projections of an AMOC slowdown in the 21st century based on climate models are attributed to the inhibition of deep convection in the North Atlantic. However, observational evidence for this linkage has been elusive: there has been no clear demonstration of AMOC variability in response to changes in deep water formation. The motivation for understanding this linkage is compelling since the overturning circulation has been shown to sequester heat and anthropogenic carbon in the deep ocean. Furthermore, AMOC variability is expected to impact this sequestration as well as have consequences for regional and global climates through its effect on the poleward transport of warm water. Motivated by the need for a mechanistic understanding of the AMOC, an international community has assembled an observing system, Overturning in the Subpolar North Atlantic (OSNAP), to provide a continuous record of the trans-basin fluxes of heat, mass and freshwater and to link that record to convective activity and water mass transformation at high latitudes. OSNAP, in conjunction with the RAPID/MOCHA array at 26°N and other observational elements, will provide a comprehensive measure of the three-dimensional AMOC and an understanding of what drives its variability. The OSNAP observing system was fully deployed in the summer of 2014 and the first OSNAP data products are expected in the fall of 2017.

The Effect of Ocean Dynamics and Orography on Atmospheric Storm Tracks

Abstract The control of atmospheric storm tracks by ocean dynamics, orography, and their interaction is investigated using idealized experiments with a simplified coupled atmosphere–ocean climate model. The study focuses on the quasi–steady state for the storm tracks in the Northern Hemisphere winter mean. The experiments start with a background state without mountains and ocean dynamics, and in separate stages include orography and a dynamic ocean to obtain a more realistic control simulation. The separate effects of ocean dynamics, orography, and their nonlinear interaction are identified for the storm tracks and the surface thermodynamic forcing over the ocean. The model study suggests that atmospheric storm tracks are a robust feature of the climate system, occurring at midlatitudes even if there is no orographic forcing or ocean heat transport. Ocean dynamics generally lead to a poleward shift in both the storm track and the maximum in atmospheric northward heat transport and induce a northeastward t...

Why Are Eddy Fluxes of Potential Vorticity Difficult to Parameterize

Abstract Eddy fluxes systematically affect the larger-scale, time-mean state, but their local behavior is difficult to parameterize. To understand how eddy fluxes of potential vorticity (PV) are controlled, the enstrophy budget is diagnosed for a five-layer, 1/16°, eddy-resolving, isopycnic model of a wind-driven, flat-bottom basin. The direction of the eddy flux across the mean PV contours is controlled by the Lagrangian evolution of enstrophy, including contributions from the temporal change and mean and eddy advection, as well as dissipation of enstrophy. During the spinup, an overall increase in enstrophy is consistent with eddy fluxes being directed downgradient on average and homogenization of PV within intermediate layers. Enstrophy becomes largest along the flanks of the gyre, where PV gradients are large, and becomes smallest in the interior. At a statistically steady state, there is a reversing pattern of up- and downgradient eddy PV fluxes, which are locally controlled by the advection of enstr...

Interpolation of Tidal Levels in the Coastal Zone for the Creation of a Hydrographic Datum

Abstract As part of the U.K. Hydrographic Office (UKHO)-sponsored Vertical Offshore Reference Frames (VORF) project, a high-resolution model of lowest astronomical tide (LAT) with respect to mean sea level has been developed for U.K.–Irish waters. In offshore areas the model relies on data from satellite altimetry, while in coastal areas data from a 3.5-km-resolution hydrodynamic tide-surge model and tide gauges have been included. To provide for a smooth surface and predict tidal levels in unobserved areas, the data have been merged and interpolated using the thin plate spline method, which has been appropriately tuned by an empirical prediction test whereby observed values at tide gauges were removed from the solution space and surrounding data used to predict its behavior. To allow for the complex coastal morphology, a sea distance function has been implemented within the data weighting, which is shown to significantly enhance the solution. The tuning process allows for independent validation giving a ...

When Are Eddy Tracer Fluxes Directed Downgradient

The mechanisms controlling the direction of eddy tracer fluxes are examined using eddy-resolving isopycnic experiments for a cyclic zonal channel. Eddy fluxes are directed downgradient on average when either (i) there is a Lagrangian increase in tracer variance or (ii) there is strong dissipation of tracer variance. The effect of the eddies on the mean tracer evolution can be described through an ensemble of eddies that each have a particular life cycle. Local examination of the eddy behavior, such as fluxes, eddy kinetic energy, and tracer variance appears complex, although the cumulative time-mean picture has coherence: eddies are preferentially formed in localized regions with downstream growth and increase in tracer variance concomitant with downgradient eddy tracer fluxes, while eventually the eddies decay with a decrease in tracer variance and upgradient eddy tracer fluxes. During spinup, tracer deformation through flow instability leads to an area-average increase in tracer variance (although locally it is increasing and decreasing with the individual eddy life cycles) and therefore an implied area-average, downgradient tracer flux. At a steady state, part of the pattern in eddy fluxes simply reflects advection of background tracer variance by the time-mean and eddy flows. The eddy flux becomes biased to being directed downgradient if there is a strong sink in the tracer, which is likely to be the case for eddy heat fluxes along isopycnals outcropping in the mixed layer or for eddy nitrate fluxes along isopycnals intersecting the euphotic zone.