Christelle Viauroux

An empirical analysis of life jacket effectiveness in recreational boating

This article gives a measure of life jacket (LJ) effectiveness in U.S. recreational boating. Using the U.S. Coast Guards Boating Accident Report Database from 2008 to 2011, we find that LJ wear is one of the most important determinants influencing the number of recreational boating fatalities, together with the number of vessels involved, and the type and engine of the vessel(s). We estimate a decrease in the number of deceased per vessel of about 80% when the operator wears their LJs compared to when they do not. The odds of dying are 86% higher than average if the accident involves a canoe or kayak, but 80% lower than average when more than one vessel is involved in the accident and 34% lower than average when the operator involved in the accident has more than 100 hours of boating experience. Interestingly, we find that LJ effectiveness decreases significantly as the length of the boat increases and decreases slightly as water temperature increases. However, it increases slightly as the operators age increases. We find that between 2008 and 2011, an LJ regulation that requires all operators to wear their LJs-representing a 20% increase in wear rate-would have saved 1,721 (out of 3,047) boaters or 1,234 out of 2,185 drowning victims. The same policy restricted to boats 16-30 feet in length would have saved approximately 778 victims. Finally, we find that such a policy would reduce the percentage of drowning victims compared to other causes of death.

Explaining the Revolution in U.S. Fertility, Schooling, and Women’s Work among Households Formed in 1875, 1900, and 1925

Abstract This paper addresses revolutionary changes in the education, fertility and market work of U.S. families formed in the 1870s–1920s: Fertility fell from 5.3 to 2.6; the graduation rate of their children increased from 7% to 50%; and the fraction of adulthood wives devoted to market-oriented work increased from 7% to 23% (by one measure). These trends are addressed within a unified framework to examine the ability of several proposed mechanisms to quantitatively replicate these changes. Based on careful calibration, the choices of successive generations of representative husband-and-wife households over the quantity and quality of their children, household production, and the extent of mother’s involvement in market-oriented production are simulated. Rising wages, declining mortality, a declining gender wage gap, and increased efficiency and public provision of schooling cannot, individually or in combination, reduce fertility or increase stocks of human capital to levels seen in the data. The best fit of the model to the data also involves: (1) a decreased tendency among parents to view potential earnings of children as the property of parents and (2) rising consumption shares per dependent child. Greater attention should be given the determinants of parental control of the work and earnings of children for this period. One contribution is the gathering of information and strategies necessary to establish an initial baseline, and the time paths for parameters and targets for this period beset with data limitations. A second contribution is identifying the contributions of various mechanisms toward reaching those calibration targets.