Christer Magnusson

Is eradication of the pinewood nematode (Bursaphelenchus xylophilus) likely? An evaluation of current contingency plans.

The pinewood nematode (PWN) is one of the worst tree-killing exotic pests in East-Asian countries. The first European record of establishment in Portugal in 1999 triggered extensive surveys and contingency plans for eradication in European countries, including immediate removal of large areas of conifer host trees. Using Norway as an example, we applied a simulation model to evaluate the chance of successful eradication of a hypothetical introduction by the current contingency plan in a northern area where wilting symptoms are not expected to occur. Despite a highly variable spread of nematode infestations in space and time, the probability of successful eradication in 20 years was consistently low (mean 0.035, SE 0.02). The low success did not change significantly by varying the biological parameters in sensitivity analyses (SA), probably due to the late detection of infestations by the survey (mean 14.3 years). SA revealed a strong influence of management parameters. However, a high probability of eradication required unrealistic measures: achieving an eradication probability of 0.99 in 20 years required 10,000 survey samples per year and a host tree removal radius of 8,000 m around each detection point.

Combining ecological and economic modelling in analysing a pest invasion contingency plan – The case of pine wood nematode in Norway

Abstract Introductions of the pine wood nematode (PWN), which causes Pine Wilt Disease (PWD), have devastating effects on pine forests in regions with susceptible host trees under suitable climate conditions. Norwegian authorities have proposed a contingency plan if PWN is detected in Norway. We compare the costs of implementing this plan with the costs of further spread and damage of PWN under two climate change scenarios: present and the most likely future climate. With the present climate, PWD will not occur in Norway. Under climatic change, the cost of PWD damage is approximately 0.078–0.157 million NOK (0.01–0.02 million Euros) estimated as net present value with 2 and 4% p.a. discount rate. In contrast, the corresponding costs of implementing the suggested contingency plan will be 1.7–2.2 billion NOK (0.2–0.25 billion Euros). These costs are caused by reduced income from industrial timber production and the costs of the eradication measures. Costs related to reduced recreation or biodiversity are expected to be very high, but are not included in the above estimates. Many of the factors in the analysis are burdened with high uncertainty, but sensitivity analyses indicate that the results are rather robust even for drastic changes in assumptions. The results suggest that there is a need to revise the current PWN contingency plan in Norway.