Christian A. L. Hilber

The impact of supply constraints on house prices in England

We test the theoretical prediction that house prices respond more strongly to changes in local earnings in places with tight supply constraints using a unique panel dataset of 353 Local Planning Authorities in England between 1974 and 2008. Exploiting exogenous variation from a policy reform, vote shares and historical density to identify the endogenous constraints‐measures, we find that: regulatory constraints have a substantive positive impact on the house price‐earnings elasticity; the effect of constraints due to scarcity of developable land is largely confined to highly urbanised areas; and uneven topography has a quantitatively less meaningful impact.

The Mortgage Interest Deduction and Its Impact on Homeownership Decisions

This paper examines the impact of the combined U.S. state and federal mortgage interest deduction (MID) on homeownership attainment, using data from 1984 to 2007 and exploiting variation in the subsidy arising from changes in the MID within and across states over time. We test whether capitalization of the MID into house prices offsets the positive effect on homeownership. We find that the MID boosts homeownership attainment only of higher-income households in less tightly regulated housing markets. In more restrictive places, an adverse effect exists. The MID is an ineffective policy to promote homeownership and improve social welfare.

Land use regulation and productivity—land matters: evidence from a UK supermarket chain

We use store-specific data for a UK supermarket chain to estimate the impact of planning on store output. Exploiting the variation in policies between England and other UK countries, we isolate the impact of Town Centre First (TCF) policies introduced in England. We find they directly reduced output by forcing stores onto less productive sites. We estimate TCF policies imposed a loss of output of 32 percent on a representative store opening after their rigorous implementation in 1996. Additionally, we show that, household numbers constant, more restrictive local authorities have fewer stores and lower chain sales within their areas.

The economic implications of house price capitalization: a synthesis

In this article I argue that the extent to which fiscal variables are capitalized into house prices has important economic implications. I synthesize an emerging literature that explores the conditions under which public and private investments and intergovernmental transfers are capitalized into local house prices and the broader implications of such capitalization. The main insights are: (i) House price capitalization is more pronounced in locations with strict regulatory and geographical supply constraints; (ii) capitalization can – under certain conditions – induce the provision of durable local public goods and club goods; and (iii) capitalization effects – which are habitually ignored by policy makers – have important adverse consequences for a wide range of policies such as intergovernmental aid or the mortgage interest deduction.

The economics implications of house price capitalization a survey of an emerging literature

House price capitalization – the adjustment of house prices to changes in local public service and tax levels – has long been thought to be a means of testing for efficiency in the local public sector. In this article I argue that the extent of house price capitalization itself may have important economic implications. In doing so I synthesize an emerging literature that explores the conditions under which public and private investments and intergovernmental transfers are capitalized into local house prices and the broader implications of such capitalization. The main insights are: (i) House price capitalization is more pronounced in locations with strict regulatory and/or geographical/physical supply constraints; (ii) capitalization can – under certain conditions – induce the provision of durable local public goods and club goods; and (iii) capitalization effects – which are habitually ignored by policy makers – have important adverse consequences for a wide range of policies such as intergovernmental aid or the mortgage interest deduction

School funding equalization and residential location for the young and the elderly

State educational spending policies strongly impact the funding of local schools. While some US states have removed school spending authority from local residents, others continue to encourage local control. In this paper we explore the effects of changes in state educational spending policies on Tiebout sorting by examining the location choice of young and elderly households, both within and across states. We argue that states with local control and limited redistribution are attractive for middle and high income households but not for low income households. However, in states with significant redistribution mechanisms, non-poor households with children and elderly have fewer incentives to avoid low-income places, leading to less concentration of poor households and a smaller degree of separation of the young and elderly. We present empirical evidence that is consistent with these predictions and show that private school enrollment is less common in places with redistribution mechanisms. We conclude that school services do matter for residential location choices and thus Tiebout sorting may present a partial solution to the potential risk that a growing number of elderly voters pose to continued political support for public schools.

The Economic Implications of House Price Capitalization: A Synthesis

In this article I argue that the extent to which fiscal variables are capitalized into house prices has important economic implications. I synthesize an emerging literature that explores the conditions under which public and private investments and intergovernmental transfers are capitalized into local house prices and the broader implications of such capitalization. The main insights are: (i) House price capitalization is more pronounced in locations with strict regulatory and geographical supply constraints; (ii) capitalization can – under certain conditions – induce the provision of durable local public goods and club goods; and (iii) capitalization effects – which are habitually ignored by policy makers – have important adverse consequences for a wide range of policies such as intergovernmental aid or the mortgage interest deduction.

Local Economic Conditions and the Nature of New Housing Supply

We present a modified open monocentric city model that assumes that land is available for conversion into new housing throughout the city. The model predicts that positive local income shocks (i) increase the city’s share of multi-family housing in new construction and (ii) lead to the construction of smaller units. We exploit the metro area samples of the American Housing Survey from 1984 to 2004 and find support for both predictions. We confirm that the adjustment process is driven by migration and is hindered by strict local land use control. Our findings imply that tight regulation may hamper metro area level labor market adjustment to positive economic shocks not only through limits on the quantity of newly supplied units but also by constraining their type to single-family houses and larger units that may be less suitable for would-be-migrants.

Agglomeration Economies and the Location of Foreign Direct Investment: Quasi-Experimental Evidence from Romania

How important are agglomeration economies for the location of foreign manufacturing plants? We investigate this question by combining innovations from previous studies and by taking advantage of a quasi-experimental setting: the political and economic transition in Romania. The recent, sudden and sustained influx of foreign investors into Romania provides an ideal setting to disentangle agglomeration economies from endowment effects. Using a countylevel conditional logit set-up that controls for choice-specific fixed effects and endowment effects, we find that external economies from industry-specific foreign agglomeration and service agglomeration are important location determinants. Increases in the number of foreign plants and in service employment density by 10 percent make the average county 2.2 and 6.2 percent more likely to attract a new foreign investor. Local labor market conditions also matter. Our findings suggest that results are sensitive to the choice of geographical unit of observation and the inclusion of locational fixed effects.

Urban Development and Air Pollution: Evidence from a Global Panel of Cities

We exploit a unique panel of 75 metro areas (‘cities’) across the globe and employ a cityfixed effects model to identify the determinants of within-city changes in air pollution concentration between 2005 and 2011. Increasing car and population densities significantly reduce air pollution concentration in city centers where air pollution induced health risks are greatest. These effects are largely confined to cities in non-OECD countries. Two possible mechanisms for the negative effect of car density are explored: (i) increasing car density permits a decentralization of residential and economic activity; and (ii) car usage substitutes for motorbike usage. We find limited evidence in favour of (i) and no evidence in favour of (ii). We also observe a complex relationship between income and pollution concentration as well as a general downward-trend in pollution concentration over time. Overall, our findings are indicative that densely populated polycentric cities may be ‘greener’ and ‘healthier’ than comparable monocentric ones.