Christian A. Vossler

A criterion validity test of the contingent valuation method: comparing hypothetical and actual voting behavior for a public referendum

Abstract This study pursues external validation of contingent valuation by comparing survey results with the voting outcome of a Corvallis, Oregon, referendum to fund a riverfront improvement project through increased property taxes. Survey respondents hypothetically make a voting decision—with no financial consequences—on the upcoming referendum. The survey sample consists of respondents verified to have voted in the election. We use available precinct-level election data to compare the proportion of “yes” survey and referendum votes as well as estimate voting models and mean willingness to pay (WTP) based on the two sets of data. We find that survey responses match the actual voting outcome and WTP estimates based on the two are not statistically different. Contrary to similar studies, our statistical results do not depend on re-coding the majority of “undecided” survey responses to “no.” Furthermore, such a re-coding of responses may be inappropriate for our data set .

Payment Certainty in Discrete Choice Contingent Valuation Responses: Results from a Field Validity Test

Two methods for calibrating discrete choice contingent valuation responses – the dichotomous choice with followup certainty question method of Champ et al. (1997) and the multiple bounded method of Welsh and Poe (1998) – are evaluated using data from a field validity comparison of hypothetical and actual participation decisions in a green electricity pricing program. Both calibration methods can produce hypothetical participation levels that closely correspond with actual program participation rates. However, the two methods demonstrate procedural variance as they yield significantly different underlying distributions of willingness to pay.

Contemporary Guidance for Stated Preference Studies

This article proposes contemporary best-practice recommendations for stated preference (SP) studies used to inform decision making, grounded in the accumulated body of peer-reviewed literature. These recommendations consider the use of SP methods to estimate both use and non-use (passive-use) values, and cover the broad SP domain, including contingent valuation and discrete choice experiments. We focus on applications to public goods in the context of the environment and human health but also consider ways in which the proposed recommendations might apply to other common areas of application. The recommendations recognize that SP results may be used and reused (benefit transfers) by governmental agencies and nongovernmental organizations, and that all such applications must be considered. The intended result is a set of guidelines for SP studies that is more comprehensive than that of the original National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Blue Ribbon Panel on contingent valuation, is more germane to contemporary applications, and reflects the two decades of research since that time. We also distinguish between practices for which accumulated research is sufficient to support recommendations and those for which greater uncertainty remains. The goal of this article is to raise the quality of SP studies used to support decision making and promote research that will further enhance the practice of these studies worldwide.

Externally validating contingent valuation: an open-space survey and referendum in Corvallis, Oregon

Abstract We ask whether respondents report the same decisions in non-binding surveys as they do in real elections. We study a Corvallis, OR referendum to raise open space funds and find survey and election compatibility pivots on the characterization of “undecided” responses. The survey and referendum percentage of “yes” votes match closely only if “undecided” responses are treated as “no”. We compare survey-based mean willingness to pay (WTP) estimates with election-based estimates. Household WTP averages US

A comparison of taxonomic distinctness versus richness as criteria for setting conservation priorities for North American birds

48.89 using election results, while survey-based WTP averages US

Economic valuation of policies for managing acidity in remote mountain lakes: examining validity through scope sensitivity testing

75.43 excluding “undecided responses”, US

Experiments on Damage-Based Ambient Taxes for Nonpoint Source Polluters

49.67 treating “undecided responses” as “no”, and between US

Consequentiality and contingent values: an emerging paradigm

49.96 and 80.05.

Analyzing repeated-game economics experiments: robust standard errors for panel data with serial correlation

In choosing sites for a conservation reserve network, representation of the greatest number of species in the sites selected is a common objective. This approach implicitly assumes that all species have equal conservation value. An alternative objective is to represent the greatest genetic diversity in selected sites. This approach gives greater weight to species that are more genetically distinct. Such species tend to contain more unique genetic material, which would be lost if such species became extinct. In this paper, we calculate a diversity measure for a given set of species based on the branch length of the phylogenetic tree for the set. We use genetic distances between bird species in 147 genera based on the results of DNA hybridization research. Distribution information for bird species in the US comes from the Breeding Bird Survey. We compare resulting conservation reserve networks when the objective is the number of genera represented versus the diversity of genera represented. We find that the different objectives produce notably similar results.

The Measurement of Subjective Value and Its Relation to Contingent Valuation and Environmental Public Goods.

Abstract.The paper introduces the reader to the contingent valuation method for monetary valuation of individuals’ preferences regarding changes to environmental goods. Approaches to the validity testing of results from such studies are discussed. These focus upon whether findings conform with economic-theoretic expectations, in particular regarding whether valuations are sensitive to the size (or ‘scope’) of environmental change being considered, and whether they are invariant to alterations in study design which are irrelevant from the perspective of economic theory. We apply such tests to a large sample study of schemes to alter the acidity levels of remote mountain lakes. Results suggest that, when presented with environmental changes which respondents are concerned about, their values exhibit scope sensitivity and conform to theoretical expectations, and therefore could be used for formulating policy. However, when presented with changes which respondents feel are trivial, their values fail tests of theoretical consistency and are not scope sensitive, and therefore cannot be used within economic appraisals. Interestingly we find that qualitative focus group analyses are good indicators of whether a given change is likely to be considered trivial or not and therefore whether scope sensitivity tests are likely to be satisfied.