Christian Calmès

Product-mix and bank performance: new U.S. and Canadian evidence

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to analyse the link between product-mix and bank performance with a comprehensive look at the contribution of each component of banking activities. Design/methodology/approach - – The generalized method of moments estimation approach the authors apply to the US and Canadian large data sets deals with the endogeneity issues related to banks’ decision to diversify in fee-based activities, and the authors also control the non-linearities (asymmetries) in the innovation with a complementary EGARCH procedure. Findings - – The results suggests that the increasing involvement of banks in fee generating activities has a greater positive impact on US bank performance. On the one hand, US banks are more involved in fees related to traditional lending activities and securitization, which contributes to their higher mean return. On the other hand, Canadian banks focus more on investment banking activities, which makes their financial results more procyclical and volatile. Greater profitability notwithstanding, the authors also found that US bank non-interest income activities incorporate more credit risk, a type of risk obviously less diversifiable when credit shocks occur. Originality/value - – The approach shows that the endogeneity problems related to the banks’ decision to diversify in non-traditional activities may be important. The multivariate GARCH approach the authors introduced strongly suggests that diversification gains fluctuate over the business cycle, and that the decision to diversify must be understood in a dynamic setting rather than in a static one.

Off-Balance-Sheet Activities and the Shadow Banking System: An Application of the Hausman Test with Higher Moments Instruments

The noninterest income banks generate from their off-balance-sheet activities contributes greatly to the volatility of their operating revenues. Using Canadian data, we apply a modified Hausman procedure based on higher moments instruments and revisit this phenomenon to establish that the share of noninterest income (snonin) is actually endogenous to banks returns. In 1997, after the adoption of the Value at Risk (VaR) as a measure of banks risk, the snonin sign turns positive in the returns equations, indicating the emergence of diversification gains from banks non-traditional activities. ARCH-M estimations corroborate the idea that banks have gradually adapted to their new business lines, with an adjustment process begun even before 1997. However, the banks risk premium associated to OBS activities has continuously increased since that date.

The Procyclicality of Basel III Leverage: Elasticity-Based Indicators and the Kalman Filter

Traditional leverage ratios assume that bank equity captures all changes in asset values. However, in the context of market-oriented banking, capital can be funded by additional debt or asset sales without directly influencing equity. Given the new sources of liquidity generated by off-balance-sheet (OBS), time-varying indicators of leverage are better suited to capture the dynamics of aggregate leverage. In this paper, we introduce a Kalman filter procedure to study such elasticity-based measures of broad leverage. This approach enables the detection of the build-up in bank risk years before what the traditional assets to equity ratio predicts. Most elasticity measures appear in line with the historical episodes, well tracking the cyclical pattern of leverage. Importantly, the degree of total leverage suggests that OBS banking exerts a stronger influence on leverage during expansion periods.