Christian Mark Leishman

Classifying office submarkets

In this paper, it is argued that neo‐classical location theory is of limited value in conceptualising the structure of urban office markets. Rather there are sound theoretical and technical arguments for segmenting office markets into distinct submarkets. It is further argued that submarkets, rather than being based on prior knowledge of agents or researchers, should be derived empirically. As an illustration the authors use principal components analysis and cluster analysis to construct office submarkets. The results reported are based on the analysis of a unique dataset of asking rents, physical and locational characteristics of properties on the market in the cities of Glasgow and Edinburgh in the 1990s. From the empirical evidence, it is clear that different factors are important in influencing the structure of the office market in Scotland’s major urban centres.

Estimating local repeat sales house price indices for British cities

This paper argues that the methods of constructing house price indices for UK markets lag behind those employed in Europe, Australasia and North America. This is particularly evident in terms of the range and level of technical sophistication of the index construction methodologies. Importantly, the paper argues that the absence of reliable house price indicators undermines the decision‐making ability of policy makers and investors operating in urban housing markets. The paper suggests that this can, in part, be remedied by the construction of a system of local house price indices for British cities. The empirical research presents the first UK application of the repeat sales method to UK data. Indices are constructed for four cities and a range of diagnostic tests are used to establish the reliability and accuracy of the indices as a means of monitoring house price change. The research concludes by suggesting that the methods used here should be tested further on data from major metropolitan regions in England and Wales.

The long‐run diversification attributes of commercial property

Correlation coefficients measuring the historical relationships of returns on commercial property and both equities and conventional gilts appear to be low. Conversely, the correlation between gilts and equities appears to be relatively high. This implies that property provides diversification benefits to a mixed asset portfolio dominated by equities and gilts. However, there is some debate as to the reliability of these correlations and property’s diversification benefits. In this paper we use Granger causality tests and cointegration techniques to demonstrate that there is no long‐run relationship between property returns and those of either gilts or equities. This confirms the diversification benefits of including property in a mixed asset portfolio.

Housing economics: a historical approach

The world has still to emerge fully from the housing-triggered Global Financial Crisis, but housing crises are not new. The history of housing shows long-run social progress, littered with major disasters; nevertheless the progress is often forgotten, whilst the difficulties hit the headlines. Housing Economics provides a long-term economic perspective on macro and urban housing issues, from the Victorian era onwards. A historical perspective sheds light on modern problems and the constraints on what can be achieved; it concentrates on the key policy issues of housing supply, affordability, tenure, the distribution of migrant communities, mortgage markets and household mobility. Local case studies are interwoven with city-wide aggregate analysis. Three sets of issues are addressed: the underlying reasons for the initial establishment of residential neighbourhoods, the processes that generate growth, decline and patterns of integration/segregation, and the impact of historical development on current problems and the implications for policy.

Housing and poverty: a longitudinal analysis

Abstract Cross-sectional research suggests that the British housing system weakens the link between income poverty and housing outcomes, but this reveals little about the long-term relationships. We examine the relationship between income poverty and housing pathways over an 18-year period to 2008, and develop consensual approaches to poverty estimation, housing deprivation, and the prevalence of under and over-consumption. We find that chronic poverty is most strongly associated with housing pathways founded in social renting, whereas housing pathways founded in owner-occupation are more strongly associated with temporary poverty. Whilst housing deprivation is disproportionately prevalent among those who experienced chronic poverty, the overwhelming majority of people who experienced chronic poverty avoided housing deprivation. This evidence supports of the notion that the housing system, during this period, weakened the link between poverty and housing deprivation. Therefore it can be characterised as representing a ‘sector regime’ with different distributional tendencies from the wider welfare regime.

Home Ownership Transition Influences among British Young Adults

In the UK, recent changes in tenure trends indicate that young adults are most likely to be caught in the middle between the decision of owning or renting (privately or socially). As the private rented sector continues to grow, young adults are mostly now found in the sector while home ownership has been shifting to older age groups. In the past, the literature had largely focused on the econometrics context on one end and the critical context on the other. To prepare grounds for the introduction of the socio-psychological dimension to the econometric context, this paper aims to investigate the possible socio-psychological factors applicable from neighbourhood contexts. Cross-sectional principal component analysis has been carried out using British census and deprivation data to ascertain these factors as they associate with tenure shifts. Following this, a fixed-effects regression of neighbourhood features of young adults against their corresponding neighbourhood homeownership rates is carried out. The procedure is essential to ascertain which variables would be ideal at the neighbourhood level. Findings indicate that suggested socio-economic features and deprivation ranks at the neighbourhood levels are potential contributors to homeownership. These would therefore suit inclusion in an emerging research question that concerns why the tenure shifts have continued amongst young adults, despite the slow continued economic improvements. The suggestion is that interactions between economic and socio-psychological factors may be important in helping to explain tenure shifts.