Christian Selmer

Validation of risk stratification schemes for predicting stroke and thromboembolism in patients with atrial fibrillation: nationwide cohort study.

Objectives To evaluate the individual risk factors composing the CHADS2 (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age≥75 years, Diabetes, previous Stroke) score and the CHA2DS2-VASc (CHA2DS2-Vascular disease, Age 65-74 years, Sex category) score and to calculate the capability of the schemes to predict thromboembolism. Design Registry based cohort study. Setting Nationwide data on patients admitted to hospital with atrial fibrillation. Population All patients with atrial fibrillation not treated with vitamin K antagonists in Denmark in the period 1997-2006. Main outcome measures Stroke and thromboembolism. Results Of 121 280 patients with non-valvular atrial fibrillation, 73 538 (60.6%) fulfilled the study inclusion criteria. In patients at “low risk” (score=0), the rate of thromboembolism per 100 person years was 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.47 to 1.89) with CHADS2 and 0.78 (0.58 to 1.04) with CHA2DS2-VASc at one year’s follow-up. In patients at “intermediate risk” (score=1), this rate was 4.75 (4.45 to 5.07) with CHADS2 and 2.01 (1.70 to 2.36) with CHA2DS2-VASc. The rate of thromboembolism depended on the individual risk factors composing the scores, and both schemes underestimated the risk associated with previous thromboembolic events. When patients were categorised into low, intermediate, and high risk groups, C statistics at 10 years’ follow-up were 0.812 (0.796 to 0.827) with CHADS2 and 0.888 (0.875 to 0.900) with CHA2DS2-VASc. Conclusions The risk associated with a specific risk stratification score depended on the risk factors composing the score. CHA2DS2-VASc performed better than CHADS2 in predicting patients at high risk, and those categorised as low risk by CHA2DS2-VASc were truly at low risk for thromboembolism.

Duration of Treatment With Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drugs and Impact on Risk of Death and Recurrent Myocardial Infarction in Patients With Prior Myocardial Infarction A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background— Despite the fact that nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) are contraindicated among patients with established cardiovascular disease, many receive NSAID treatment for a short period of time. However, little is known about the association between NSAID treatment duration and risk of cardiovascular disease. We therefore studied the duration of NSAID treatment and cardiovascular risk in a nationwide cohort of patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI). Methods and Results— Patients ≥30 years of age who were admitted with first-time MI during 1997 to 2006 and their subsequent NSAID use were identified by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries of hospitalization and drug dispensing from pharmacies in Denmark. Risk of death and recurrent MI according to duration of NSAID treatment was analyzed by multivariable time-stratified Cox proportional-hazard models and by incidence rates per 1000 person-years. Of the 83 677 patients included, 42.3% received NSAIDs during follow-up. There were 35 257 deaths/recurrent MIs. Overall, NSAID treatment was significantly associated with an increased risk of death/recurrent MI (hazard ratio, 1.45; 95% confidence interval, 1.29 to 1.62) at the beginning of the treatment, and the risk persisted throughout the treatment course (hazard ratio, 1.55; 95% confidence interval, 1.46 to 1.64 after 90 days). Analyses of individual NSAIDs showed that the traditional NSAID diclofenac was associated with the highest risk (hazard ratio, 3.26; 95% confidence interval, 2.57 to 3.86 for death/MI at day 1 to 7 of treatment). Conclusions— Even short-term treatment with most NSAIDs was associated with increased risk of death and recurrent MI in patients with prior MI. Neither short- nor long-term treatment with NSAIDs is advised in this population, and any NSAID use should be limited from a cardiovascular safety point of view.

A reduced cerebral metabolic ratio in exercise reflects metabolism and not accumulation of lactate within the human brain

During maximal exercise lactate taken up by the human brain contributes to reduce the cerebral metabolic ratio, O2/(glucose + 1/2 lactate), but it is not known whether the lactate is metabolized or if it accumulates in a distribution volume. In one experiment the cerebral arterio‐venous differences (AV) for O2, glucose (glc) and lactate (lac) were evaluated in nine healthy subjects at rest and during and after exercise to exhaustion. The cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) was drained through a lumbar puncture immediately after exercise, while control values were obtained from six other healthy young subjects. In a second experiment magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H‐MRS) was performed after exhaustive exercise to assess lactate levels in the brain (n = 5). Exercise increased the AVO2 from 3.2 ± 0.1 at rest to 3.5 ± 0.2 mm (mean ±s.e.m.; P < 0.05) and the AVglc from 0.6 ± 0.0 to 0.9 ± 0.1 mm (P < 0.01). Notably, the AVlac increased from 0.0 ± 0.0 to 1.3 ± 0.2 mm at the point of exhaustion (P < 0.01). Thus, maximal exercise reduced the cerebral metabolic ratio from 6.0 ± 0.3 to 2.8 ± 0.2 (P < 0.05) and it remained low during the early recovery. Despite this, the CSF concentration of lactate postexercise (1.2 ± 0.1 mm; n= 7) was not different from baseline (1.4 ± 0.1 mm; n= 6). Also, the 1H‐MRS signal from lactate obtained after exercise was smaller than the estimated detection limit of ∼1.5 mm. The finding that an increase in lactate could not be detected in the CSF or within the brain rules out accumulation in a distribution volume and indicates that the lactate taken up by the brain is metabolized.

Proton pump inhibitor use and risk of adverse cardiovascular events in aspirin treated patients with first time myocardial infarction: nationwide propensity score matched study

Objective To examine the effect of proton pump inhibitors on adverse cardiovascular events in aspirin treated patients with first time myocardial infarction. Design Retrospective nationwide propensity score matched study based on administrative data. Setting All hospitals in Denmark. Participants All aspirin treated patients surviving 30 days after a first myocardial infarction from 1997 to 2006, with follow-up for one year. Patients treated with clopidogrel were excluded. Main outcome measures The risk of the combined end point of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, or stroke associated with use of proton pump inhibitors was analysed using Kaplan-Meier analysis, Cox proportional hazard models, and propensity score matched Cox proportional hazard models. Results 3366 of 19 925 (16.9%) aspirin treated patients experienced recurrent myocardial infarction, stroke, or cardiovascular death. The hazard ratio for the combined end point in patients receiving proton pump inhibitors based on the time dependent Cox proportional hazard model was 1.46 (1.33 to 1.61; P<0.001) and for the propensity score matched model based on 8318 patients it was 1.61 (1.45 to 1.79; P<0.001). A sensitivity analysis showed no increase in risk related to use of H2 receptor blockers (1.04, 0.79 to 1.38; P=0.78). Conclusion In aspirin treated patients with first time myocardial infarction, treatment with proton pump inhibitors was associated with an increased risk of adverse cardiovascular events.

Baroreflex‐Mediated Changes in Cardiac Output and Vascular Conductance in Response to Alterations in Carotid Sinus Pressure during Exercise in Humans

We sought to quantify the contribution of cardiac output (Q) and total vascular conductance (TVC) to carotid baroreflex (CBR)‐mediated changes in mean arterial pressure (MAP) during mild to heavy exercise. CBR function was determined in eight subjects (25 ± 1 years) at rest and during three cycle exercise trials at heart rates (HRs) of 90, 120 and 150 beats min−1 performed in random order. Acute changes in carotid sinus transmural pressure were evoked using 5 s pulses of neck pressure (NP) and neck suction (NS) from +40 to −80 Torr (+5.33 to −10.67 kPa). Beat‐to‐beat changes in HR and MAP were recorded throughout. In addition, stroke volume (SV) was estimated using the Modelflow method, which incorporates a non‐linear, three‐element model of the aortic input impedance to compute an aortic flow waveform from the arterial pressure wave. The application of NP and NS did not cause any significant changes in SV either at rest or during exercise. Thus, CBR‐mediated alterations in Q were solely due to reflex changes in HR. In fact, a decrease in the carotid‐HR response range from 26 ± 7 beats min−1 at rest to 7 ± 1 beats min−1 during heavy exercise (P= 0.001) reduced the contribution of Q to the CBR‐mediated change in MAP. More importantly, at the time of the peak MAP response, the contribution of TVC to the CBR‐mediated change in MAP was increased from 74 ± 14 % at rest to 118 ± 6 % (P= 0.017) during heavy exercise. Collectively, these findings indicate that alterations in vasomotion are the primary means by which the CBR regulates blood pressure during mild to heavy exercise.

The spectrum of thyroid disease and risk of new onset atrial fibrillation: a large population cohort study

Objectives To examine the risk of atrial fibrillation in relation to the whole spectrum of thyroid function in a large cohort of patients. Design Population based cohort study of general practice patients identified by linkage of nationwide registries at the individual level. Setting Primary care patients in the city of Copenhagen. Subjects Registry data for 586 460 adults who had their thyroid function evaluated for the first time by their general practitioner during 2000-10 and who were without previously recorded thyroid disease or atrial fibrillation. Main outcome measure Poisson regression models used to estimate risk of atrial fibrillation by thyroid function. Results Of the 586 460 individuals in the study population (mean (SD) age 50.2 (16.9) years, 39% men), 562 461 (96.0%) were euthyroid, 1670 (0.3%) had overt hypothyroidism, 12 087 (2.0%) had subclinical hypothyroidism, 3966 (0.7%) had overt hyperthyroidism, and 6276 (1.0%) had subclinical hyperthyroidism. Compared with the euthyroid individuals, the risk of atrial fibrillation increased with decreasing levels of thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) from high normal euthyroidism (incidence rate ratio 1.12 (95% CI 1.03 to 1.21)) to subclinical hyperthyroidism with reduced TSH (1.16 (0.99 to 1.36)) and subclinical hyperthyroidism with supressed TSH (1.41 (1.25 to 1.59)). Both overt and subclinical hypothyroidism were associated with a lower risk of atrial fibrillation. Conclusion The risk of atrial fibrillation was closely associated with thyroid activity, with a low risk in overt hypothyroidism, high risk in hyperthyroidism, and a TSH level dependent association with risk of atrial fibrillation across the spectrum of subclinical thyroid disease.

Subclinical and Overt Thyroid Dysfunction and Risk of All-Cause Mortality and Cardiovascular Events: A Large Population Study

CONTEXT Thyroid dysfunction has been associated with both increased all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, but limited data are available on mild thyroid dysfunction and cause-specific mortality. OBJECTIVE The objective of the study was to examine the risk of all-cause mortality, major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs), and cause-specific events in subjects with overt and subclinical thyroid dysfunction. DESIGN This was a retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS Participants in the study were subjects who underwent thyroid blood tests, without prior thyroid disease, consulting their general practitioner in 2000-2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE All-cause mortality, MACEs, and cause-specific events identified in nationwide registries were measured. RESULTS A total of 47 327 (8.4%) deaths occurred among 563 700 included subjects [mean age 48.6 (SD ± 18.2) y; 39% males]. All-cause mortality was increased in overt and subclinical hyperthyroidism [age adjusted incidence rates of 16 and 15 per 1000 person-years, respectively; incidence rate ratios (IRRs) 1.25 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.15-1.36] and 1.23 (95% CI 1.16-1.30)] compared with euthyroid (incidence rate of 12 per 1000 person-years). Risk of MACEs was elevated in overt and subclinical hyperthyroidism [IRRs 1.16 (95% CI 1.05-1.27) and 1.09 (95% CI 1.02-1.16)] driven by heart failure [IRRs 1.14 (95% CI 0.99-1.32) and 1.20 (95% CI 1.10-1.31)]. A reduction of all-cause mortality was observed in subclinical hypothyroidism with TSH of 5-10 mIU/L [IRR 0.92 (95% CI 0.86-0.98)]. CONCLUSIONS Heart failure is the leading cause of an increased cardiovascular mortality in both overt and subclinical hyperthyroidism. Subclinical hypothyroidism with TSH 5-10 mIU/L might be associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality.

Long-Term Cardiovascular Risk of Nonsteroidal Anti-Inflammatory Drug Use According to Time Passed After First-Time Myocardial Infarction A Nationwide Cohort Study

Background— The cardiovascular risk after the first myocardial infarction (MI) declines rapidly during the first year. We analyzed whether the cardiovascular risk associated with using nonsteroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) was associated with the time elapsed following first-time MI. Methods and Results— We identified patients aged 30 years or older admitted with first-time MI in 1997 to 2009 and subsequent NSAID use by individual-level linkage of nationwide registries of hospitalization and drug dispensing from pharmacies in Denmark. We calculated the incidence rates of death and a composite end point of coronary death or nonfatal recurrent MIs associated with NSAID use in 1-year time intervals up to 5 years after inclusion and analyzed risk by using multivariable adjusted time-dependent Cox proportional hazards models. Of the 99 187 patients included, 43 608 (44%) were prescribed NSAIDs after the index MI. There were 36 747 deaths and 28 693 coronary deaths or nonfatal recurrent MIs during the 5 years of follow-up. Relative to noncurrent treatment with NSAIDs, the use of any NSAID in the years following MI was persistently associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio 1.59 [95% confidence interval, 1.49–1.69]) after 1 year and hazard ratio 1.63 [95% confidence interval, 1.52–1.74] after 5 years) and coronary death or nonfatal recurrent MI (hazard ratio, 1.30 [95% confidence interval,l 1.22–1.39] and hazard ratio, 1.41 [95% confidence interval, 1.28–1.55]). Conclusions— The use of NSAIDs is associated with persistently increased coronary risk regardless of time elapsed after first-time MI. We advise long-term caution in the use of NSAIDs for patients after MI.

Increased short-term risk of thrombo-embolism or death after interruption of warfarin treatment in patients with atrial fibrillation

AIMS It is presently unknown whether patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) are at increased risk of thrombo-embolic adverse events after interruption of warfarin treatment. The purpose of this study was to assess the risk and timing of thrombo-embolism after warfarin treatment interruption. METHODS AND RESULTS A retrospective, nationwide cohort study of all patients in Denmark treated with warfarin after a first hospitalization with AF in the period 1997-2008. Incidence rate ratios (IRRs) of thrombo-embolic events and all-cause mortality were calculated using the Poisson regression analyses. In total, 48 989 AF patients receiving warfarin treatment were included. Of these, 35 396 patients had at least one episode of warfarin treatment interruption. In all, 8255 deaths or thrombo-embolic events occurred during treatment interruption showing an initial clustering of events with 2717, 835, 500, and 427 events occurring during 0-90, 91-180, 181-270, and 271-360 days after treatment interruption, respectively. Correspondingly, the crude incidence rates were 31.6, 17.7, 12.3, and 11.4 events per 100 patient-years. In a multivariable analysis, the first 90-day interval of treatment interruption was associated with a markedly higher risk of death or thrombo-embolism (IRR 2.5; 95% confidence interval 2.3-2.8) vs. the interval of 271-360 days. CONCLUSION In patients with AF, an interruption of warfarin treatment is associated with a significantly increased short-term risk of death or thrombo-embolic events within the first 90 days of treatment interruption.

Calcium-Channel Blockers Do Not Alter the Clinical Efficacy of Clopidogrel After Myocardial Infarction: A Nationwide Cohort Study

OBJECTIVES The purpose of this study was to determine the risk of adverse cardiovascular events associated with concomitant use of clopidogrel and calcium-channel blockers (CCBs) in patients with myocardial infarction (MI). BACKGROUND CCBs inhibit a variety of cytochrome P-450 enzymes, some of which contribute to clopidogrel metabolic activation. This interaction may diminish the efficacy of clopidogrel. METHODS All patients surviving 30 days after a first-time MI in the period 2000 to 2006 in Denmark were identified by individual-level linkage of nationwide administrative registers. The cohort was divided into patients treated with and without clopidogrel and followed for 1 year after discharge. The risk of a composite of cardiovascular death, MI, or stroke and the risk of the individual components of the composite end point and all-cause death associated with CCBs were analyzed with multivariable Cox proportional hazard models and in univariate propensity score-matched models. RESULTS A total of 56,800 patients were included, of whom 24,923 were treated with clopidogrel and 13,380 with CCBs. In the Cox analyses, the risk of the composite end point associated with CCBs was increased in both patients treated and not treated with clopidogrel, with a hazard ratio of 1.15 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.07 to 1.24) and 1.05 (95% CI: 1.01 to 1.11), respectively. The increased risk was independent of clopidogrel use; the hazard rate ratio was 1.08 (95% CI: 0.99 to 1.18). Analyses of all additional adverse end points and propensity score-matched models provided similar results. CONCLUSIONS The clinical efficacy of clopidogrel in patients with a recent MI is not modified by concomitant CCB treatment. This potential drug interaction is unlikely to have clinical significance.