Christie Smith

Does forecast combination improve Norges Bank inflation forecasts

We develop a system that provides model-based forecasts for inflation in Norway. We recursively evaluate quasi out-of-sample forecasts from a large suite of models from 1999 to 2009. The performance of the models are then used to derive quasi real time weights that are used to combine the forecasts. Our results indicate that a combination forecast improves upon the point forecasts from individual models. Furthermore, a combination forecast out-performs Norges Bank?s own point forecast for inflation. The beneficial results are obtained using a trimmed weighted average. Some degree of trimming is required for the combination forecasts to out-perform the judgmental forecasts from the policymaker.

Local Linear Impulse Responses for a Small Open Economy

Traditional vector autoregressions derive impulse responses using iterative techniques that may compound specification errors. Local projection techniques are robust to this problem, and Monte Carlo evidence suggests they provide reliable estimates of the true impulse responses. We use local linear projections to investigate the dynamic properties of a model for a small open economy, New Zealand. We compare impulse responses from local projections to those from standard techniques, and consider the implications for monetary policy. We pay careful attention to the dimensionality of the model, and focus on effects of policy on GDP, interest rates, prices and exchange rates.

Weights and Pools for a Norwegian Density Combination

We apply a suite of models to produce quasi-real-time density forecasts of Norwegian GDP and inflation, and evaluate different combination and selection methods using the Kullback-Leibler information criterion (KLIC). We use linear and logarithmic opinion pools in conjunction with various weighting schemes, and we compare these combinations to two different selection methods. In our application, logarithmic opinion pools were better than linear opinion pools, and score-based weights were generally superior to other weighting schemes. Model selection generally yielded poor density forecasts, as evaluated by KLIC.

Financial Frictions and the Role of Investment Specific Technology Shocks in the Business Cycle

Various papers have identified shocks to investment as major drivers of output, investment, hours, and interest rates. These investment shocks have been linked to financial frictions because financial markets are instrumental in transforming consumption goods into installed capital. However, the importance of investment shocks is not robust once we explicitly account for a simple financial friction. We estimate a medium scale dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with collateral constraints. When entrepreneurs are subject to binding collateral constraints, a reduction in the value of installed capital reduces the value of collateral and thus the amount an entrepreneur can borrow. As a result, aggregate consumption no longer co-moves with GDP and the response of investment to a positive investment shock is attenuated. In the model with collateral constraints, the role of risk premium shocks in the business cycle increases markedly, whereas investment shocks have a much diminished role.

New Zealand's macroeconomic imbalances – causes and remedies: Guest editors' introduction

This paper introduces contributions made to a June 2011 policy forum, sponsored by the New Zealand Treasury, the Reserve Bank of New Zealand and Victoria University of Wellington. The forum focused on New Zealands macroeconomic imbalances and possible policy responses. Here we provide an overview of these macro imbalances and summarize the main ideas presented later in this issue.

CRYPTO-CURRENCIES - AN INTRODUCTION TO NOT-SO-FUNNY MONEYS: CRYPTO-CURRENCIES - AN INTRODUCTION

This paper introduces the distributed ledger technology of crypto-currencies. We aim to increase public understanding of these technologies, highlight some of the risks involved in using cryptocurrencies, and discuss some of the potential implications of these technologies for consumers, financial systems, monetary policy and financial regulation. Crypto-currencies have no physical existence, but are best thought of as electronic accounting systems that keep track of people’s transactions and hence remaining purchasing power. Cryptocurrencies are typically decentralised, with no central authority responsible for maintaining the ledger and no central authority responsible for maintaining the code used to implement the ledger system, unlike the ledgers maintained by commercial banks for example. As crypto-currencies are denominated in their own unit of account, they are like foreign currencies relative to traditional fiat currencies, such as dollars and pounds.