Christina E. Bannier

The Role of Information Disclosure and Uncertainty in the 1994/95 Mexican Peso Crisis: Empirical Evidence

This paper analyzes the role that the distribution of information played during the Mexican peso crisis 1994/95. In accordance with theoretical models, we find that, first, an improvement in the mean of posterior beliefs about economic fundamentals generally reduced speculative pressures. Secondly, the standard deviation of beliefs as a measure of information disparity did not significantly influence traders behavior. Information disparity did have a significant impact, however, when combined with the mean of beliefs. The combined effect, moreover, allows a tentative distinction between private or public information having dominated posterior beliefs. In this respect, thirdly, our analysis points to public information having driven speculative pressures. Copyright