Christina Isabel Zuber

Understanding the Multinational Game: Toward a Theory of Asymmetrical Federalism

This article presents a baseline theory of asymmetrical federalism in multinational states. Two arguments building on a game-theoretic foundation link central and regional elites’ strategic choices to questions of federal stability. The first argument concerns the creation of asymmetrical institutions. In a confrontation game between the center and national minorities credibly threatening to exit the framework, the center’s decision to grant asymmetrical autonomy ensures mutual cooperation. Yet by extending the level of autonomy for minority regions, federal asymmetry creates a third player, the nonadvantaged regions. Consequently, the second argument models asymmetrical federalism as a “nested game” where events in the ethnonational arena determine the payoffs in the federal arena. Asymmetrical federal rules turn out to be inherently unstable from a perspective that takes all actors in all arenas into account. A narrative of the development of Russian federalism exemplifies the theory.

Position, selective emphasis and framing : How parties deal with a second dimension in competition

This Special Issue aims to (1) theorise party strategies in multi-dimensional policy spaces; and (2) apply the theory to party competition in multinational democracies characterised by a salient territorial dimension alongside a more established economic dimension. The introductory article brings together recent contributions treating spatial and salience theories as compatible and policy spaces as two-dimensional to propose four party strategies that can be ranked from one- to two-dimensional competitive behaviour: uni-dimensionality, blurring, subsuming, and two- dimensionality. The remaining contributions operationalise these strategies and draw on a variety of data sources ranging from manifestos to parliamentary bill proposals and expert surveys to describe when and explore why parties use these strategies in competition, focusing on patterns of party competition in multinational democracies, selected as typical cases of multi-dimensional competition.

EPAC : a new dataset on ethnonationalism in party competition in 22 European democracies

Datasets in the field of ethnic politics still tend to treat ethnonational groups as unitary actors and do not differentiate between the positions of the organizations representing these groups. Datasets in the field of party politics differentiate between the positions of political parties, yet fail convincingly to conceptualize an ethnonational dimension of competition. This Research Note presents EPAC, a new dataset on Ethnonationalism in Party Competition that seeks to fill this gap. Based on an expert survey, EPAC provides cross-sectional data on the ethnonational positions of 210 political parties in 22 multinational European democracies. The conceptualization of an ethnonational dimension of competition underlying the dataset is introduced and a series of validity and reliability tests performed. Test results show that EPAC provides valid and reliable measures of party positions on an ethnonational dimension that can serve as an empirical base for study of the causes and effects of the mobilization of ethnicity in party competition.

Ethnic party competition beyond the segmented market

The outbidding model of ethnic politics focuses on party competition in an ethnically perfectly segmented electoral market where no party appeals to voters across the ethnic divide. The power sharing model retains this assumption, yet tries to prevent outbidding through moderation-inducing institutional design. Empirically, imperfectly segmented electoral markets and variance of ethnic party strategies beyond radical outbidding have been observed. To provide a stepping stone towards a more complete theory of ethnic party competition, this article introduces the notion of nested competition, defined as party competition in an imperfectly segmented market where some – but not all – parties make offers across ethnic divides and where competition in intra-ethnic arenas is nested within an inter-ethnic arena of party competition. The notion of nested competition helps explain why ethnic outbidding is not omnipresent in contemporary multi-ethnic democracies. A moderate position on the ethnic dimension that appe...The outbidding model of ethnic politics focuses on party competition in an ethnically perfectly segmented electoral market where no party appeals to voters across the ethnic divide. The power sharing model retains this assumption, yet tries to prevent outbidding through moderation-inducing institutional design. Empirically, imperfectly segmented electoral markets and variance of ethnic party strategies beyond radical outbidding have been observed. To provide a stepping stone towards a more complete theory of ethnic party competition, this article introduces the notion of nested competition, defined as party competition in an imperfectly segmented market where some – but not all – parties make offers across ethnic divides and where competition in intra-ethnic arenas is nested within an inter-ethnic arena of party competition. The notion of nested competition helps explain why ethnic outbidding is not omnipresent in contemporary multi-ethnic democracies. A moderate position on the ethnic dimension that appears inauspicious from the perspective of intra-ethnic competition can turn into the strategically superior choice once ethnic parties take the whole system of competitive interactions within intra- and inter-ethnic arenas into account. A case study of nested competition for Hungarian votes in the Vojvodina region of Northern Serbia illustrates the conceptual innovations.

Reserved Seats, Political Parties, and Minority Representation

Abstract This article seeks to clarify the relationship between reserved seats filled through competitive elections, political parties, and substantive minority representation. It argues that the party affiliation of the minority representative moderates the impact of reserved seats on substantive representation since minority and party constituencies can cross-pressure a representative or, in the case of overlap, can allow her to cater to party and minority interests simultaneously. Drawing on empirical examples, the article first classifies party affiliations along the criterion of overlap between minority interests and party appeal into five categories: ‘coinciding ethnic’ parties, ‘multi-ethnic’ parties, ‘partial ethnic’ parties, ‘other ethnic’ parties, and ‘non-ethnic’ parties. Hypotheses about how these affiliations affect a reserved-seat representatives willingness to act for the minority are later developed, expecting a strong positive effect of the coinciding ethnic party, a weak positive effect for multi- and partial ethnic parties, a negative effect for other ethnic parties, and no effect for non-ethnic party affiliation.

Representative claims and expected gains. Minority council elections and intra-ethnic competition in Serbia

This article examines the first direct elections to minority councils in Serbia. It seeks to build hypotheses on the interplay between minority council elections and the overall patterns of intra-ethnic party competition in divided societies. Following an introduction to minority politics in Serbia, the authors analyse the campaign for the Bosniak and the Hungarian minority council. Evidence from field research suggests that minority council elections reflect the situation of intra-ethnic competition and provide an additional arena for ethnic outbidding for new ethnic parties.

The second edition of the EPAC expert survey on ethnonationalism in party competition – testing for validity and reliability

ABSTRACT This research note presents EPAC 2017, a dataset resulting from the second round of an expert survey on ethnonationalism in party competition. EPAC provides cross-sectional data on the positions of (ethno-) national and mainstream parties on an ethnonational (also often referred to as ‘territorial’ or ‘centre-periphery’) dimension, as well as other important dimensions of political competition. The 2017 edition covers 222 political parties in 22 multinational European countries. The research note presents the main survey items and performs a series of validity and reliability tests on the data. Results show that EPAC 2017 provides valid and reliable measures of party positions on an ethnonational dimension. A short analysis of party system changes in Spain and Bosnia and Herzegovina illustrates the opportunities of combining the 2011 and 2017 editions. The combined dataset allows studying the mobilization of the centre-periphery cleavage in party competition across Eastern and Western Europe and over time.

Ethnic outbidding and nested competition: Explaining the extremism of ethnonational minority parties in Europe

The classical outbidding model of ethnic politics argues that democratic competition involving ethnic parties inevitably leads to ethnic outbidding where parties adopt ever more extreme positions. However, recent small-N studies show that ethnic outbidding is only one of a range of strategies available to ethnic parties. This article seeks to explain why some ethnic parties are extremist, whereas others adopt moderate positions. Drawing on the ethnic outbidding and the nested competition model of ethnic party competition, it is hypothesised that the ethnic segmentation of the electoral market, and the relative salience of an ethnically cross-cutting economic dimension of party competition, account for the varying degrees of extremism. Hypotheses are tested drawing on a novel, expert-survey-based dataset that provides indicators for the positions of 83 ethnonational minority parties in 22 European democracies in 2011. Results of ordinary least squares and two-level linear regressions show that as the economic dimension gains importance, parties become more moderate relative to the party system mean. The electorates ethnic segmentation has a positive effect on extremism, but this effect is not significant in all models. Contrary to expectations, higher ethnic segmentation of the party system is associated with more moderate positions in the majority of the estimated models.

Serbia and Montenegro. From Centralization to Secession and Multi-ethnic Regionalism

This chapter studies regional elections in Serbia and Montenegro between 1998 and 2014. This requires accounting for shifting boundaries and changes in the hierarchy between territorial units of self-government. We first analyze the process of extreme regionalization in Montenegro, which lead to its independence in 2006. The chapter then assesses developments in Montenegro and Serbia separately. We show that ‘ethnicization’ of the Serbian vote during and after secession did not enable persistent regionalist mobilization in the unitary Montenegrin state. Analyzing territoriality of the vote in Serbia between 2000 and 2014 shows that the national party system dominates elections in the country’s autonomous province of Vojvodina. This finding stands in contrast to evidence we find in favor of voters’ strong regional identification with this multi-ethnic, historical province.