Christina L. Hulbe

The Link Between Climate Warming and Break-Up of Ice Shelves in the Antarctic Peninsula

A review of in situ and remote-sensing data covering the ice shelves of the Antarctic Peninsula provides a series of characteristics closely associated with rapid shelf retreat: deeply embayed ice fronts; calving of myriad small elongate bergs in punctuated events; increasing flow speed; and the presence of melt ponds on the ice-shelf surface in the vicinity of the break-ups. As climate has warmed in the Antarctic Peninsula region, melt-season duration and the extent of ponding have increased. Most break-up events have occurred during longer melt seasons, suggesting that meltwater itself, not just warming, is responsible. Regions that show melting without pond formation are relatively unchanged. Melt ponds thus appear to be a robust harbinger of ice-shelf retreat. We use these observations to guide a model of ice-shelf flow and the effects of meltwater. Crevasses present in a region of surface ponding will likely fill to the brim with water. We hypothesize (building on Weertman (1973), Hughes (1983) and Van der Veen (1998)) that crevasse propagation by meltwater is the main mechanism by which ice shelves weaken and retreat. A thermodynamic finite-element model is used to evaluate ice flow and the strain field, and simple extensions of this model are used to investigate crack propagation by meltwater. The model results support the hypothesis.

Catastrophic ice-shelf break-up by an ice-shelf-fragment-capsize mechanism

Two disintegration events leading to the loss of Larsen A and B ice shelves, Antarctic Peninsula, in 1995 and 2002, respectively, proceeded with extreme rapidity (order of several days) and reduced an extensive, seemingly integrated ice shelf to a jumble of small fragments. These events strongly correlate with warming regional climate and accumulation of surface meltwater, supporting a hypothesis that meltwater-induced propagation of pre-existing surface crevasses may have initiated ice-shelf fragmentation. We address here an additional, subsequent mechanism that may sustain and accelerate the ice-shelf break-up once it begins. The proposed mechanism involves the coherent capsize of narrow (less than thickness) ice-shelf fragments by rolling 90° in a direction toward, or away from, the ice front. Fragment capsize liberates gravitational potential energy, forces open ice-shelf rifts and contributes to further fragmentation of the surrounding ice shelf.

A new numerical model of coupled inland ice sheet, ice stream, and ice shelf flow and its application to the West Antarctic Ice Sheet

We have developed a dynamic/thermodynamic finite element numerical model that couples inland ice sheet, ice stream, and ice shelf dynamics. This new model stands apart from other whole ice sheet models in its explicit treatment of ice stream flow. Additionally, the model accounts for both horizontal and vertical advection and diffusion of temperature in the flowing ice. In present day simulations of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet (WAIS), modeled ice velocity agrees well with observed ice flow. In particular, the model reproduces the pattern of speed variation across ice streams although the continuous downstream speed up of ice flow cannot be reproduced without concurrent downstream variation in basal friction. Model thermodynamics, evaluated qualitatively by model prediction of the spatial distribution of basal melting and quantitatively by comparison with ice temperature measured in boreholes at several locations, are sound. In particular, the model reproduces the broad pattern of frozen-bed inter-ice stream ridges and melted-bed ice streams. Model initialization for long-time simulations is somewhat limited by computation time and by a thermodynamic feedback at sites of large viscous heating that can be a problem in heat balance only model initializations. Methods for averting those initialization problems are discussed. The new model can accommodate a variety of boundary conditions (such as various bed rheologies) and is well-suited to investigate the origin and evolution of WAIS ice streams within the context of the whole ice sheet system.

An ice shelf mechanism for Heinrich layer production

The effect of an ice shelf in the Labrador Sea on ice-rafted sediment delivery to the glacial North Atlantic is investigated using a finite element numerical model of ice shelf flow. Discharge into the shelf from Hudson Strait creates a thick central core, extending downstream into the shelf, that is flanked by relatively thin ice. Melting at the base of the deep keel would produce cool, fresh water which would rise to refreeze along the keels flanks. Debris deposited by melting deep central ice could create the Heinrich layers observed in the Labrador Sea while the debris-rich ice protected by basal freezing on the flanks of the thick ice plume could transport sediment over large distances. Heinrich layers would be produced solely by external climate forcing, without changes in ice sheet flow. The mechanism is plausible if the lifetime of the ice shelf is about 1000 years.

Post-Stagnation Behavior in the Upstream Regions of Ice Stream C, West Antarctica

The region where two active tributaries feed into the now stagnant Ice Stream C (ISC), West Antarctica, is thickening. In this region, we observe a correlation between faster ice flow (the tributaries) and elevated topography. We conclude that stagnation of ISC resulted in compression and thickening along the tributaries, eventually forming a bulge on the ice-sheet surface. Modern hydraulic potential gradients would divert basal meltwater from ISC to Ice Stream B (ISB). These gradients are primarily controlled by the bulge topography, and so likely formed subsequent to trunk stagnation. As such, we argue against water piracy as being the cause for ISCs stagnation. Kinematic-wave theory suggests that thickness perturbations propagate downstream over time, but that kinematic-wave speed decreases near the stagnant trunk. This and modest diffusion rates combine to trap most of the tributary-fed ice in the bulge region. Using interferometric synthetic aperture radar velocity measurements, we observe that half of the ice within ISCs southern tributary flows into ISB. That flow pattern and other observations of non-steady flow in the region likely result from stagnation-induced thickening along upper ISC combined with a longer period of thinning on upper ISB. If current trends in thickness change continue, more ice from upper ISC will be diverted to ISB.

Subglacial thermal balance permits ongoing grounding line retreat along the Siple Coast of West Antarctica

Abstract Changes in the discharge of West Antarctic ice streams are of potential concern with respect to global sea level. The six relatively thin, fast-flowing Ross ice streams are of interest as low-slope end-members among Antarctic ice streams. Extensive research has demonstrated that these “rivers of ice” have a history of relatively high-frequency , asynchronous discharge variations with evolving lateral boundaries. Amidst this variability, a ∼1300 km grounding-line retreat has occurred since the Last Glacial Maximum. Numerical studies of Ice Stream D (Parizek and others, 2002) indicate that a proposed thermal-regulation mechanism (Clarke and Marshall, 1998; Hulbe and MacAyeal, 1999; Tulaczyk and others, 2000a, b), which could buffer the West Antarctic ice sheet against complete collapse, may be over-ridden by latent-heat transport within melt-water from beneath inland ice. Extending these studies to Ice Stream A, Whillans Ice Stream and Ice Stream C suggests that further grounding-line retreat contributing to sea-level rise is possible thermodynamically However, the efficiency of basal water distribution may be a constraint on the system. Because local thermal deficits promote basal freeze-on (especially on topographic highs), observed short-term variability is likely to persist.

An ice-shelf model test based on the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica

A standard numerical experiment featuring the Ross Ice Shelf, Antarctica, is presented as a test package for the development and intercomparison of ice-shelfmodels. The emphasis of this package is solution of stress-equilibrium equations for an ice-shelf velocity consistent with present observations. As ademonstration, we compare five independently developed ice-shelf models based on finite-difference and finite-element methods. Our results suggest thatthere is little difference between finite-element and finite-difference methods in capturing the basic, large-scale flow features of the ice shelf. We additionallyshow that the fit between model and observed velocity depends strongly on the ice-shelf temperature field for which there is presently little observationalcontrol. The main differences between model results are due to the equations being solved, the boundary conditions at the ice front and the discretisationmethod (finite element vs. finite difference)

Weak bands within Ice Stream B, West Antarctica

Kilometer-scale variations in ice velocity and surface topography are used to investigate the style of glacier deformation in the main body of Ice Stream B, West Antarctica. The pattern is very different from that reported for other glaciers. For the 250 km 2 area studied on Ice Stream B, most of the observed deformation occurs within two narrow bands, in which there is large across-flow compression and slow lateral shearing. The bands underlie valleys in the ice-surface topography. Measured upward displacement of ice adjacent to the rapidly compressing bands appears to be linked to the creation of the ice streams topography. The most likely cause for the observed pattern of strain rates and surface topography, and their changes over time, is deformation guided by longitudinal bands of ice with an aligned crystal fabric.

Force Balance along an Inland Tributary and Onset to Ice Stream D, West Antarctica

The transition from inland- to streaming-style ice flow near to and upstream from the onset to Ice Stream D, West Antarctica, is investigated using the force-balance technique. Basal drag provides the majority of the flow resistance over the study area but is substantially modified by non-local stress gradients. Lateral drag increases with distance downstream, balancing ∼50-100% of the driving stress at the onset. Longitudinal stress gradients (LSG) are also found to be significant, an observation that distinguishes ice flow in this region from the inland- and streaming-flow regimes that bound it, in which LSG are usually negligible. LSG decrease the spatial variability in basal drag and sliding speed and increase the area of the bed over which frictional melting occurs. Overall, LSG decrease the resistive influence of basal stress concentrations and increase the spatial uniformity of basal sliding. These observations suggest that streaming flow develops as an integrated response to the physical interaction between the ice and its bed over an extended region upstream from the onset, rather than being solely due to changes in basal characteristics at the onset. An implication is that non-steady-flow behavior upstream from the onset may ultimately propagate downstream and result in non-steady behavior at the onset.

'Sticky spots' and subglacial lakes under ice streams of the Siple Coast, Antarctica

Abstarct Locations of subglacial lakes discovered under fast-moving West Antarctic ice streams tend to be associated with topographic features of the subglacial bed or with areas that have strong variations in basal conditions. Inversion of ice-stream surface velocity indicates that basal conditions under ice streams can be highly variable and that there can be widespread regions where basal traction is high. To seek an explanation for why lakes appear to be sited near areas with high basal traction, we use numerical models to simulate ice-stream dynamics, thermodynamics and subglacial water flow. We demonstrate that the ice flow over high basal traction areas produces favourable conditions for the ponding of meltwater. Energy dissipation associated with ice sliding over a region with high basal traction constitutes a water source supplying a lake, and ice-thickness perturbations induced by ice flow over variable traction create local minima in hydraulic potential. Variations in thermodynamic processes caused by such ice flow could be responsible for limiting the horizontal extent of the subglacial lakes.