Christina M. Shay

Status of Cardiovascular Health in US Adults Prevalence Estimates From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) 2003–2008

Background— The American Heart Associations 2020 Strategic Impact Goals define a new concept, cardiovascular (CV) health; however, current prevalence estimates of the status of CV health in US adults according to age, sex, and race/ethnicity have not been published. Methods and Results— We included 14 515 adults (≥20 years of age) from the 2003 to 2008 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Participants were stratified by young (20–39 years), middle (40–64 years), and older (≥65 years) ages. CV health behaviors (diet, physical activity, body mass index, smoking) and CV health factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, fasting blood glucose, smoking) were defined as poor, intermediate, or ideal. Fewer than 1% of adults exhibited ideal CV health for all 7 metrics. For CV health behaviors, nonsmoking was most prevalent (range, 60.2%–90.4%), whereas ideal Healthy Diet Score was least prevalent (range, 0.2%–2.6%) across groups. Prevalences of ideal body mass index (range, 36.5%–45.3%) and ideal physical activity levels (range, 50.2%–58.8%) were higher in young adults compared with middle or older ages. Ideal total cholesterol (range, 23.7%–36.2%), blood pressure (range, 11.9%–16.3%), and fasting blood glucose (range, 31.2%–42.9%) were lower in older adults compared with young and middle-aged adults. Prevalence of poor CV health factors was lowest in young age but higher at middle and older ages. Prevalence estimates by age and sex were consistent across race/ethnic groups. Conclusions— These prevalence estimates of CV health represent a starting point from which effectiveness of efforts to promote CV health and prevent CV disease can be monitored and compared in US adult populations.

Cardiovascular Health Behavior and Health Factor Changes (1988–2008) and Projections to 2020 Results From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys

Background— The American Heart Associations 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target a 20% relative improvement in overall cardiovascular health with the use of 4 health behavior (smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass) and 3 health factor (plasma glucose, cholesterol, blood pressure) metrics. We sought to define current trends and forward projections to 2020 in cardiovascular health. Methods and Results— We included 35 059 cardiovascular disease–free adults (aged ≥20 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988–1994 and subsequent 2-year cycles during 1999–2008. We calculated population prevalence of poor, intermediate, and ideal health behaviors and factors and also computed a composite, individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score for all 7 metrics (poor=0 points; intermediate=1 point; ideal=2 points; total range, 0–14 points). Prevalence of current and former smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension declined, whereas prevalence of obesity and dysglycemia increased through 2008. Physical activity levels and low diet quality scores changed minimally. Projections to 2020 suggest that obesity and impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus could increase to affect 43% and 77% of US men and 42% and 53% of US women, respectively. Overall, population-level cardiovascular health is projected to improve by 6% overall by 2020 if current trends continue. Individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score projections to 2020 (men=7.4 [95% confidence interval, 5.7–9.1]; women=8.8 [95% confidence interval, 7.6–9.9]) fall well below the level needed to achieve a 20% improvement (men=9.4; women=10.1). Conclusions— The American Heart Association 2020 target of improving cardiovascular health by 20% by 2020 will not be reached if current trends continue. # Clinical Perspective {#article-title-25}Background— The American Heart Associations 2020 Strategic Impact Goals target a 20% relative improvement in overall cardiovascular health with the use of 4 health behavior (smoking, diet, physical activity, body mass) and 3 health factor (plasma glucose, cholesterol, blood pressure) metrics. We sought to define current trends and forward projections to 2020 in cardiovascular health. Methods and Results— We included 35 059 cardiovascular disease–free adults (aged ≥20 years) from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1988–1994 and subsequent 2-year cycles during 1999–2008. We calculated population prevalence of poor, intermediate, and ideal health behaviors and factors and also computed a composite, individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score for all 7 metrics (poor=0 points; intermediate=1 point; ideal=2 points; total range, 0–14 points). Prevalence of current and former smoking, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertension declined, whereas prevalence of obesity and dysglycemia increased through 2008. Physical activity levels and low diet quality scores changed minimally. Projections to 2020 suggest that obesity and impaired fasting glucose/diabetes mellitus could increase to affect 43% and 77% of US men and 42% and 53% of US women, respectively. Overall, population-level cardiovascular health is projected to improve by 6% overall by 2020 if current trends continue. Individual-level Cardiovascular Health Score projections to 2020 (men=7.4 [95% confidence interval, 5.7–9.1]; women=8.8 [95% confidence interval, 7.6–9.9]) fall well below the level needed to achieve a 20% improvement (men=9.4; women=10.1). Conclusions— The American Heart Association 2020 target of improving cardiovascular health by 20% by 2020 will not be reached if current trends continue.

Ideal Cardiovascular Health is Inversely Associated with Incident Cancer: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study

Background— The American Heart Association (AHA) has defined the concept of ideal cardiovascular health in promotion of the 2020 Strategic Impact Goals. We examined whether adherence to ideal levels of the 7 AHA cardiovascular health metrics was associated with incident cancers in the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study over 17 to 19 years of follow-up. Methods and Results— After exclusions for missing data and prevalent cancer, 13 253 ARIC participants were included for analysis. Baseline measurements were used to classify participants according to 7 AHA cardiovascular health metrics. Combined cancer incidence (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) from 1987 to 2006 was captured using cancer registries and hospital surveillance; 2880 incident cancer cases occurred over follow-up. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios for incident cancer. There was a significant ( P trend <0.0001), graded, inverse association between the number of ideal cardiovascular health metrics at baseline and cancer incidence. Participants meeting goals for 6 to 7 ideal health metrics (2.7% of the population) had 51% lower risk of incident cancer than those meeting goals for 0 ideal health metrics. When smoking was removed from the sum of ideal health metrics, the association was attenuated with participants meeting goals for 5 to 6 health metrics having 25% lower cancer risk than those meeting goals for 0 ideal health metrics ( P trend =0.03). Conclusions— Adherence to the 7 ideal health metrics defined in the AHA 2020 goals is associated with lower cancer incidence. The AHA should continue to pursue partnerships with cancer advocacy groups to achieve reductions in chronic disease prevalence. # Clinical Perspective {#article-title-29}Background— The American Heart Association (AHA) has defined the concept of ideal cardiovascular health in promotion of the 2020 Strategic Impact Goals. We examined whether adherence to ideal levels of the 7 AHA cardiovascular health metrics was associated with incident cancers in the Atherosclerosis Risk In Communities (ARIC) study over 17 to 19 years of follow-up. Methods and Results— After exclusions for missing data and prevalent cancer, 13 253 ARIC participants were included for analysis. Baseline measurements were used to classify participants according to 7 AHA cardiovascular health metrics. Combined cancer incidence (excluding nonmelanoma skin cancers) from 1987 to 2006 was captured using cancer registries and hospital surveillance; 2880 incident cancer cases occurred over follow-up. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios for incident cancer. There was a significant (P trend <0.0001), graded, inverse association between the number of ideal cardiovascular health metrics at baseline and cancer incidence. Participants meeting goals for 6 to 7 ideal health metrics (2.7% of the population) had 51% lower risk of incident cancer than those meeting goals for 0 ideal health metrics. When smoking was removed from the sum of ideal health metrics, the association was attenuated with participants meeting goals for 5 to 6 health metrics having 25% lower cancer risk than those meeting goals for 0 ideal health metrics (P trend =0.03). Conclusions— Adherence to the 7 ideal health metrics defined in the AHA 2020 goals is associated with lower cancer incidence. The AHA should continue to pursue partnerships with cancer advocacy groups to achieve reductions in chronic disease prevalence.

Blood Pressure Trajectories in Early Adulthood and Subclinical Atherosclerosis in Middle Age

IMPORTANCE Single measures of blood pressure (BP) levels are associated with the development of atherosclerosis; however, long-term patterns in BP and their effect on cardiovascular disease risk are poorly characterized. OBJECTIVES To identify common BP trajectories throughout early adulthood and to determine their association with presence of coronary artery calcification (CAC) during middle age. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Prospective cohort data from 4681 participants in the CARDIA study, who were black and white men and women aged 18 to 30 years at baseline in 1985-1986 at 4 urban US sites, collected through 25 years of follow-up (2010-2011). We examined systolic BP, diastolic BP, and mid-BP (calculated as [SBP+DBP]/2, an important marker of coronary heart disease risk among younger populations) at baseline and years 2, 5, 7, 10, 15, 20, and 25. Latent mixture modeling was used to identify trajectories in systolic, diastolic, and mid-BP over time. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Coronary artery calcification greater than or equal to Agatston score of 100 Hounsfield units (HU) at year 25. RESULTS We identified 5 distinct mid-BP trajectories: low-stable (21.8%; 95% CI, 19.9%-23.7%; n=987), moderate-stable (42.3%; 40.3%-44.3%; n=2085), moderate-increasing (12.2%; 10.4%-14.0%; n=489), elevated-stable (19.0%; 17.1%-20.0%; n=903), and elevated-increasing (4.8%; 4.0%-5.5%; n=217). Compared with the low-stable group, trajectories with elevated BP levels had greater odds of having a CAC score of 100 HU or greater. Adjusted odds ratios were 1.44 (95% CI, 0.83-2.49) for moderate-stable, 1.86 (95% CI, 0.91-3.82) for moderate-increasing, 2.28 (95% CI, 1.24-4.18), for elevated-stable, and 3.70 (95% CI, 1.66-8.20) for elevated-increasing groups. The adjusted prevalence of a CAC score of 100 HU or higher was 5.8% in the low-stable group. These odds ratios represent an absolute increase of 2.7%, 5%, 6.3%, and 12.9% for the prevalence of a CAC score of 100 HU or higher for the moderate-stable, moderate-increasing, elevated-stable and elevated-increasing groups, respectively, compared with the low-stable group. Associations were not altered after adjustment for baseline and year 25 BP. Findings were similar for trajectories of isolated systolic BP trajectories but were attenuated for diastolic BP trajectories. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Blood pressure trajectories throughout young adulthood vary, and higher BP trajectories were associated with an increased risk of CAC in middle age. Long-term trajectories in BP may assist in more accurate identification of individuals with subclinical atherosclerosis.

Status of Cardiovascular Health in US Adolescents

Background— The American Heart Association recently developed definitions and metrics for monitoring the spectrum of cardiovascular health in adolescents and children. Current nationally representative prevalence estimates according to sex and race/ethnicity are unavailable. Methods and Results— We examined the components of cardiovascular health in 4673 participants aged 12 to 19 years (representing ≈33.2 million US adolescents) from the 2005–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Population prevalence of individual cardiovascular health behaviors and factors was estimated according to American Heart Association criteria for poor, intermediate, and ideal levels. Ideal blood pressure was most prevalent (males, 78%; females, 90%), whereas a dramatically low prevalence of ideal Healthy Diet Score was observed (males, <1%; females, <1%). Females exhibited a lower prevalence of ideal total cholesterol (65% versus 72%, respectively) and ideal physical activity levels (44% versus 67%, respectively) yet a higher prevalence of ideal blood glucose (89% versus 74%, respectively) compared with males. Approximately two thirds of adolescents exhibited ideal body mass index (males, 66%; females, 67%) and ideal smoking status (males, 66%; females, 70%). Less than 50% of adolescents exhibited ≥5 ideal cardiovascular health components (45%, males; 50%, females). Prevalence estimates according to sex were consistent across race/ethnic groups. Conclusions— The low prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health behaviors in US adolescents, particularly physical activity and dietary intake, will likely contribute to a worsening prevalence of obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and dysglycemia as the current US adolescent population reaches adulthood. Population-wide emphasis on establishment of ideal cardiovascular health behaviors early in life is essential for maintenance of ideal cardiovascular health throughout the lifespan.Background— The American Heart Association recently developed definitions and metrics for monitoring the spectrum of cardiovascular health in adolescents and children. Current nationally representative prevalence estimates according to sex and race/ethnicity are unavailable. Methods and Results— We examined the components of cardiovascular health in 4673 participants aged 12 to 19 years (representing ≈33.2 million US adolescents) from the 2005–2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys. Population prevalence of individual cardiovascular health behaviors and factors was estimated according to American Heart Association criteria for poor, intermediate, and ideal levels. Ideal blood pressure was most prevalent (males, 78%; females, 90%), whereas a dramatically low prevalence of ideal Healthy Diet Score was observed (males, <1%; females, <1%). Females exhibited a lower prevalence of ideal total cholesterol (65% versus 72%, respectively) and ideal physical activity levels (44% versus 67%, respectively) yet a higher prevalence of ideal blood glucose (89% versus 74%, respectively) compared with males. Approximately two thirds of adolescents exhibited ideal body mass index (males, 66%; females, 67%) and ideal smoking status (males, 66%; females, 70%). Less than 50% of adolescents exhibited ≥5 ideal cardiovascular health components (45%, males; 50%, females). Prevalence estimates according to sex were consistent across race/ethnic groups. Conclusions— The low prevalence of ideal cardiovascular health behaviors in US adolescents, particularly physical activity and dietary intake, will likely contribute to a worsening prevalence of obesity, hypertension, hypercholesterolemia, and dysglycemia as the current US adolescent population reaches adulthood. Population-wide emphasis on establishment of ideal cardiovascular health behaviors early in life is essential for maintenance of ideal cardiovascular health throughout the lifespan. # Clinical Perspective {#article-title-48}

Television-viewing time and dietary quality among U.S. children and adults.

BACKGROUND Greater TV-viewing time is generally associated with unhealthy dietary behaviors; however, few studies have examined associations between TV-viewing time and composite measures of dietary quality. Most studies have focused on energy intake or intake of specific foods. But overall dietary quality is important to health and weight status. PURPOSE To examine the relationship between TV-viewing time and dietary quality using a nationally representative U.S. sample. METHODS Participants in the 2003-2006 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys were included (analyses conducted in Fall 2011). Dietary quality was determined by Healthy Eating Index (HEI)-2005 calculated from two 24-hour recalls. TV-viewing time was categorized as lower (≤1 hour/day); moderate (2-3 hours/day); and higher (≥4 hours/day; referent). Multivariate linear regression models were used to estimate the TV-viewing time and HEI-2005, adjusted for BMI (percentile for children aged 2-18 years); age; ethnicity; physical activity; and total energy intake. Analyses were conducted separately for gender-age groups (preschool=aged 2-5 years [n=1423]; school-aged=6-11 years [n=1749], adolescent=aged 12-18 years [n=3343], and adult=aged ≥19 years [n=8222]). RESULTS Lower TV-viewing time was associated with higher HEI-2005 (i.e., healthier diet) for all gender and age groups. Compared with higher TV-viewing time, in each case, HEI-2005 was higher in groups with low TV-viewing time, ranging from 47.0-52.3 in ≤1 hour/day to 44.7-48.9 in ≥4 hours/day (all p<0.05). CONCLUSIONS Less time spent watching TV was associated with better dietary quality in U.S. children and adults.

Cardiovascular Health Promotion in Children: Challenges and Opportunities for 2020 and Beyond: A Scientific Statement from the American Heart Association

This document provides a pediatric-focused companion to “Defining and Setting National Goals for Cardiovascular Health Promotion and Disease Reduction: The American Heart Association’s Strategic Impact Goal Through 2020 and Beyond,” focused on cardiovascular health promotion and disease reduction in adults and children. The principles detailed in the document reflect the American Heart Association’s new dynamic and proactive goal to promote cardiovascular health throughout the life course. The primary focus is on adult cardiovascular health and disease prevention, but critical to achievement of this goal is maintenance of ideal cardiovascular health from birth through childhood to young adulthood and beyond. Emphasis is placed on the fundamental principles and metrics that define cardiovascular health in children for the clinical or research setting, and a balanced and critical appraisal of the strengths and weaknesses of the cardiovascular health construct in children and adolescents is provided. Specifically, this document discusses 2 important factors: the promotion of ideal cardiovascular health in all children and the improvement of cardiovascular health metric scores in children currently classified as having poor or intermediate cardiovascular health. Other topics include the current status of cardiovascular health in US children, opportunities for the refinement of health metrics, improvement of health metric scores, and possibilities for promoting ideal cardiovascular health. Importantly, concerns about the suitability of using single thresholds to identify elevated cardiovascular risk throughout the childhood years and the limits of our current knowledge are noted, and suggestions for future directions and research are provided.

Association of Coronary Artery Calcium in Adults Aged 32 to 46 Years With Incident Coronary Heart Disease and Death

Importance Coronary artery calcium (CAC) is associated with coronary heart disease (CHD) and cardiovascular disease (CVD); however, prognostic data on CAC are limited in younger adults. Objective To determine if CAC in adults aged 32 to 46 years is associated with incident clinical CHD, CVD, and all-cause mortality during 12.5 years of follow-up. Design, Setting, and Participants The Coronary Artery Risk Development in Young Adults (CARDIA) Study is a prospective community-based study that recruited 5115 black and white participants aged 18 to 30 years from March 25, 1985, to June 7, 1986. The cohort has been under surveillance for 30 years, with CAC measured 15 (n = 3043), 20 (n = 3141), and 25 (n = 3189) years after recruitment. The mean follow-up period for incident events was 12.5 years, from the year 15 computed tomographic scan through August 31, 2014. Main Outcomes and Measures Incident CHD included fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, acute coronary syndrome without myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, or CHD death. Incident CVD included CHD, stroke, heart failure, and peripheral arterial disease. Death included all causes. The probability of developing CAC by age 32 to 56 years was estimated using clinical risk factors measured 7 years apart between ages 18 and 38 years. Results At year 15 of the study among 3043 participants (mean [SD] age, 40.3 [3.6] years; 1383 men and 1660 women), 309 individuals (10.2%) had CAC, with a geometric mean Agatston score of 21.6 (interquartile range, 17.3-26.8). Participants were followed up for 12.5 years, with 57 incident CHD events and 108 incident CVD events observed. After adjusting for demographics, risk factors, and treatments, those with any CAC experienced a 5-fold increase in CHD events (hazard ratio [HR], 5.0; 95% CI, 2.8-8.7) and 3-fold increase in CVD events (HR, 3.0; 95% CI, 1.9-4.7). Within CAC score strata of 1-19, 20-99, and 100 or more, the HRs for CHD were 2.6 (95% CI, 1.0-5.7), 5.8 (95% CI, 2.6-12.1), and 9.8 (95% CI, 4.5-20.5), respectively. A CAC score of 100 or more had an incidence of 22.4 deaths per 100 participants (HR, 3.7; 95% CI, 1.5-10.0); of the 13 deaths in participants with a CAC score of 100 or more, 10 were adjudicated as CHD events. Risk factors for CVD in early adult life identified those above the median risk for developing CAC and, if applied, in a selective CAC screening strategy could reduce the number of people screened for CAC by 50% and the number imaged needed to find 1 person with CAC from 3.5 to 2.2. Conclusions and Relevance The presence of CAC among individuals aged between 32 and 46 years was associated with increased risk of fatal and nonfatal CHD during 12.5 years of follow-up. A CAC score of 100 or more was associated with early death. Adults younger than 50 years with any CAC, even with very low scores, identified on a computed tomographic scan are at elevated risk of clinical CHD, CVD, and death. Selective use of screening for CAC might be considered in individuals with risk factors in early adulthood to inform discussions about primary prevention.

Lifestyle‐Based Prediction Model for the Prevention of CVD: The Healthy Heart Score

Background Clinical practice focuses on the primary prevention of cardiovascular (CV) disease (CVD) through the modification and pharmacological treatment of elevated risk factors. Prediction models based on established risk factors are available for use in the primary prevention setting. However, the prevention of risk factor development through healthy lifestyle behaviors, or primordial prevention, is of paramount importance to achieve optimal population‐wide CV health and minimize long‐term CVD risk. Methods and Results We developed a lifestyle‐based CVD prediction model among 61 025 women in the Nurses’ Health Study and 34 478 men in the Health Professionals Follow‐up Study, who were free of chronic disease in 1986 and followed for ≤24 years. Lifestyle factors were assessed by questionnaires in 1986. In the derivation step, we used the Bayes Information Criterion to create parsimonious 20‐year risk prediction models among a random two thirds of participants in each cohort separately. The scores were validated in the remaining one third of participants in each cohort. Over 24 years, there were 3775 cases of CVD in women and 3506 cases in men. The Healthy Heart Score included age, smoking, body mass index, exercise, alcohol, and a composite diet score. In the validation cohort, the risk score demonstrated good discrimination (Harrells C‐index, 0.72; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.71, 0.74 [women]; 0.77; 95% CI, 0.76, 0.79 [men]), fit, and calibration, particularly among individuals without baseline hypertension or hypercholesterolemia. Conclusions The Healthy Heart Score accurately identifies individuals at elevated risk for CVD and may serve as an important clinical and public health screening tool for the primordial prevention of CVD.

Association of Ideal Cardiovascular Health and Long-term Healthcare Costs.

INTRODUCTION The American Heart Associations (AHAs) 2020 Strategic Impact Goals introduced the concept of ideal cardiovascular (CV) health based on seven health factors and behaviors associated with lower CV disease (CVD) risk. The association between CV health and healthcare costs has not been reported; therefore, we evaluated the association between CV health profile and later-life healthcare costs. METHODS Cooper Center Longitudinal Study participants (N=4,906; mean age, 56 years) receiving Medicare coverage from 1999 to 2009 were included. CV health behaviors (diet, physical activity, BMI, smoking) and CV health factors (blood pressure, total cholesterol, blood glucose) were categorized as unfavorable (zero to two ideal components); intermediate (two to four); and favorable (five to seven). Healthcare costs were cumulated from Medicare claims data, adjusted for inflation. Associations between midlife CV health status and non-CVD and CVD-related costs were estimated using multivariable quantile regression. Analyses were conducted in 2013 and 2014. RESULTS Favorable CV health was prevalent in 14.8% of men and 30.1% of women, with <1% having ideal levels of all health metrics. After 31,945 person-years of Medicare follow-up, individuals with favorable CV health exhibited 24.9% (95% CI=11.7%, 36.0%) lower median annual non-CVD costs and 74.5% (57.5%, 84.7%) lower median CVD costs than those with unfavorable CV health. Annualized differences were greater for non-CVD costs than for CVD costs (