Christine A. Wilson

Multiple vs single lending relationships in the agricultural sector

Purpose - – The purpose of this paper is to examine the use of single vs multiple lenders by Kansas farms. Previous studies suggest that as the risk level of the firm changes, borrowers desire to enhance the probability of obtaining credit at the lowest possible cost may cause them to use multiple lenders. Design/methodology/approach - – A model is adopted from the banking literature to describe farm behavior in obtaining credit from a single vs multiple lenders. Using farm-level data from the Kansas Farm Management Association, an empirical model analyzes how farm characteristics affect the number of lending relationships. A model is developed to analyze the number of lending relationships effect on the profitability of the farm. Findings - – It is found that highly leveraged farms seek additional lending relationships supporting the theoretical model and that additional lending relationships correlate to a decrease in profitability. Roughly, 50 percent of Kansas farmers that borrow use a single lender. Roughly 48 percent use from two to four lenders, with the remaining 2 percent using more than four lenders. Originality/value - – Provides empirical results to support developed theoretical framework on the number of lending institutions. This study helps understand factors correlated to a farmers decision to use multiple lenders. Analyzing the number of lending relationships helps understand how farmers manage their debt to maintain access to credit when needed at the lowest possible cost.

Buying stock in value‐added companies: an alternative choice for vertical diversification?

Recent research has indicated that livestock producers who want to manage risk and diversify their operations should invest in the stock market. This research evaluates whether or not a portfolio of publicly held companies that are first handlers of pork products would provide pork producers with a means of enhancing annual returns and reducing the volatility in the annual returns. Ex ante results suggest producers can gain from investment in value-added stocks. Ex post results, however, imply producers must choose active management of their portfolio to receive the same type of benefits as the ex ante portfolio.

The Effects of a Federal Flat Tax on Agriculture

This study examines the impact of a federal flat tax on agriculture by determining the tax liability under the current and flat tax systems using actual farm records. The study considers the linkages between agriculture and the rest of the economy by examining the impact of a flat tax on interest rates and capital investment and how those changes would affect agriculture. Results indicate that roughly 63% of agricultural producers would benefit from a flat tax in terms of lowering taxes paid. Under the flat tax, larger farms and more profitable farms would be relatively better off.

Factors affecting risk-rating migration

Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to examine empirical customer account data from 2006 through 2012 to review the probability of default (PD) rating methodology implemented by a FCS association for production agricultural accounts. This analysis provides insight into the migration of accounts across the association’s currently established PD rating categories with negative migration being a precursor to potential loan default. Design/methodology/approach - The data set contained 17,943 observations from the years 2006 to 2012 and consisted of various fields of data including balance sheet date, earnings statement date, and PD rating as of the statement date. The methods include analysis on the dynamics of the PD ratings and component ratios. OLS regression was used to analyze the data to see how the current period PD rating and component ratios affected the PD rating one year, three years, and five years out. OLS regression examined the statistical significance of the PD ratings and ratio components for this analysis. The dependent variable, Findings - Results indicate that financial ratio information gathered today can do a good job forecasting PD ratings up to three years in the future. CR information does not forecast five years into the future very well. Thus, there is an important need to update financial information on a regular basis. The results indicate that the D/A information is very important in predicting risk ratings. As the production agriculture sector has experienced difficult financial conditions during 2014 and 2015, agricultural finance institutions need to obtain up-to-date financial information from their clientele to effectively assess the risk of and manage their financial portfolio. Originality/value - Several previous works have examined and established models to assess risk in agricultural lending. This research adds to this body of work by examining the migration of an account’s risk-rating class over time using actual lender account data.