Christine Fauvelle-Aymar

The impact of turnout on electoral choices: an econometric analysis of the French case

Abstract The rational choice theory of abstention and turnout has focused on the “paradox of [not] voting”. Because of this focalization, other important problems have been left out, notably the possibility that electoral results are dependent on the number and characteristics of those who decide to vote. This question can be dealt with only within the framework of a simultaneous equation model. Such a model is built and estimated on French data. The results are clear. Not only is interdependence strong, but it also depends on the partisan affiliation of the incumbent (increasing/decreasing participation benefits/hurts the left-wing coalition). The empirical results also confirm that voting is not just an instrumental activity but also a means for expressive and signaling actions.