Christine Lim

An econometric classification and review of international tourism demand models

The purpose of the paper is to provide an econometric classification and evaluation of 100 published empirical studies on modelling international tourism demand, according to the recognition and type of omitted explanatory variables, number and type of proxy variables used, method of estimation, and use of various diagnostic tests of the auxiliary assumptions of the various models. An analysis of the adequacy of model specifications and the statistical deficiencies of existing empirical tourism demand models will permit a greater appreciation of the factors which determine changes in international tourism demand and will aid in forecasting future tourism demand.

ARMAX modelling of international tourism demand

n Abstractn n Box–Jenkins (1970) models are often used to capture the autoregressive moving average of past observations of tourist arrivals from Japan to Taiwan and New Zealand. However, other explanatory variables, such as real income in the origin country, have also affected the demand for international travel. The purpose of this paper is to use the ARMAX model to investigate the dynamic relationship between tourism demand and real income of Japan, and to compare the findings with the single-equation model. Unit root tests and diagnostics are performed before estimating the income elasticity of travel demand by Japan for New Zealand and Taiwan based on seasonally unadjusted quarterly data for 1980(1) to 2004(2). The empirical results of the ARMAX model support the economic theory that the demand for international travel is positively related to income of the origin country.n n

China's post-1978 experience in outbound tourism

n Abstractn n In 1978, Deng Xiao-Ping introduced economic reforms and the open-door policy in China. Since then, the Chinese government started to recognize tourism as a means to economic development and modernisation. Chinese outbound tourism has been managed and regulated by the Approved Destination Status (ADS) system, which is based on bilateral tourism agreement between China and overseas destinations. The ratio-to-moving average technique and Box–Jenkins (1970) univariate time series modelling are used to analyse Chinese tourist arrival patterns to Australia for the period 1984–2004. Tests for stationarity in the time series of tourist arrivals are also conducted.n n

Analysing seasonal changes in New Zealand's largest inbound market

The purpose of the paper is to analyse seasonal changes in tourism demand by New Zealands major tourist source market, Australia, for the period 1979–2005. A time series regression model is used to test the significance of monthly seasonality. By examining sub-periods that are based on major exogenous events which have had significant impacts on international travel demand to New Zealand, seasonal distributions and intra-year seasonal variations over the 27-year period are subsequently estimated using normalized seasonal indices, coefficient of variation, seasonal ratio and the Gini coefficient. Compared with the findings of previous studies for other countries, the empirical evidence suggests that, while the tourism flow distribution or concentration is not significant for New Zealand, the seasonality in tourism demand by New Zealands largest inbound market has changed over time.

Spectral analysis of seasonality in tourism demand

This paper aims to analyse the seasonality in New Zealand tourism demand from Australia and the USA using spectral analysis. Tourism demand is divided into four different categories depending on the tourists visiting purposes as registered in the customs cards upon their arrivals in New Zealand. Spectral analysis based on the sample from January 1980 to December 2007 revealed that different travel purposes share similar cyclical components but their contributions to the total variation in tourism demand differ between travel purposes and markets. More importantly, the results show that analysing aggregated data is often not sufficient to reveal the underlying seasonal patterns of tourist arrivals and policy makers would benefit greatly by analysing disaggregated data rather than relying on the analysis of aggregated data alone.

Dynamic heterogeneous panel data analysis of tourism demand for Singapore

ABSTRACT The objective of this study is to investigate tourism demand for Singapore using heterogeneous dynamic panel estimation methods. A binary variable representing the operation of Integrated Resorts (IRs), as well as income and real exchange rate, are included as determinants of tourism demand growth. Using seasonally adjusted and actual/raw quarterly data of 16 origin countries, our study shows that the pooled mran group (PMG) estimator is able to provide consistent and efficient estimates of long-run relationships between tourism demand and the determinants. The PMG results show that the long-run income (price) elasticity is positively (negatively) significant, with an elasticities range between 0.915 and 3.05 (−0.275 and −0.34). In addition, the study reveals that the IRs contribute to tourism demand growth, especially in attracting tourists from Asia. In the long term, tourism demand by the Asian markets is less income-sensitive than that of the non-Asian counterparts.

Analysis of time pressure and value perception : an exploratory study of consumer travel fair

ABSTRACT The consumer travel fair is a well-known vacation marketing event in Singapore. Travel product/package promotions at the Singapore travel fair are only available for 3 days. The purpose of this study was to investigate the relationship between time pressure and consumer value of travel fair products through their perceptions of scarcity, price, and quality. These constructs were examined using two types of mediation models. A random sample survey of 251 travel fair visitors were collected to verify the conceptual model proposed to integrate these constructs. The study found the mediated relationship between time pressure and consumer value was significant. Additionally, the signs for the total indirect effects were consistent with the proposed mediation models. The results are important from managerial and personal selling perspectives.

Modelling Short and Long Haul Volatility in Japanese Tourist Arrivals to New Zealand and Taiwan

This paper estimates the effects of short and long haul volatility (or risk) in monthly Japanese tourist arrivals to Taiwan and New Zealand , respectively. In order to model appropriately the volatilities of international tourist arrivals, we use symmetric and asymmetric conditional volatility models that are commonly used in financial econometrics, namely the GARCH (1,1), GJR (1,1) and EGARCH (1,1) models. The data series are for the period January 1997 to December 2007. The volatility estimates for the monthly growth in Japanese tourists to New Zealand and Taiwan are different, and indicate that the former has an asymmetric effect on risk from positive and negative shocks of equal magnitude, while the latter has no asymmetric effect. Moreover, there is a leverage effect in the monthly growth rate of Japanese tourists to New Zealand, whereby negative shocks increase volatility but positive shocks of very similar magnitude decrease volatility. These empirical results seem to be similar to a wide range of financial stock market prices, so that the models used in financial economics, and hence also the issues related to risk and leverage effects, are also applicable to international tourism flows.

Pre- and Post-Visit Perceptions of Youth Tourists to China

China has become a major tourist destination for Singaporeans in recent years. However, there are no studies that look particularly at Singaporean youths’ perceptions of China as a tourist destination. The purpose of this study is to investigate pre- and post-visit perceptions of China by Singaporean Generation Y tourists. Six factors affecting the destination image of China were identified and analyzed. Data were collected using survey questionnaires to examine the relationship between the identified factors and destination perceptions. The study found that Singapore youth tourists’ perceptions of China, as explained by price, infrastructure, safety, attractions, and social interactions, improved significantly after visitation. Results of the study can inform the Chinese tourism authorities on how to position the country to meet the consumer demand of the youth travel market.

Modelling tourist flow association for tourism demand forecasting

The purpose of this study is to examine tourism demand for Singapore from 1995 to 2013 by six major origin countries which belong to three different regions. Unlike prior tourism research, we take into account the dependence relations among the different tourist flows via copula. Copula is a statistical model of dependence and measurement of association. Specifically, we investigate the association between two tourist flows in each region. Based on empirical copula estimation, the Frank function has been identified as the most appropriate to capture the pairwise dependence structures of tourist flows. The copula-based approach combined with econometric models is proposed for tourism demand analysis that can be used to predict tourist arrivals. We apply the copula-ARDL and copula-ECM frameworks to generate joint forecasts of tourist arrivals from three regions. The findings show that the forecast performance of the Frank copula-based model outperforms the benchmark model which corresponds to the independence structure (no association) of tourist flows.